Round 2040
Round 14 of 20 in simulation 7 of Brazil, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock, and the index +0.001 to 12.70.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2040 (the end of 2039) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 12.70 (+0.001)
- In: 12.70
- Rank by index
- 24
- In: 24
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- In: 1
- Credits carried
- 770
- In: 710
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 10.04 | 10.15 | +0.113 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 14.22 | 14.19 | −0.039 | 3 |
| National Security | 9.56 | 9.58 | +0.012 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 15.33 | 15.30 | −0.034 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 13.17 | 13.29 | +0.120 | 4 → 3 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12.26 | 12.18 | −0.086 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 13.72 | 13.58 | −0.144 | 5 → 6 |
| Production & Innovation | 12.66 | 12.55 | −0.114 | 4 |
| Trade & Investment | 13.34 | 13.53 | +0.184 | 5 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2040: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 492, plus 710 carried in. Maintenance 359. Spent 74 on actions (buy 30, partner 44). 770 carried over.
- BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing15 credits for 1.08 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Semiconductors & Advanced Computing by 0 per cent
- BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies15 credits for 1.22 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Export Capability & Sophistication by 1 per cent
- PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication15 credits for 1.12 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Global Value Chain Position by 0 per cent
- PartnerGlobal Value Chain Position15 credits for 1.12 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Trade Policy & Market Access by 0 per cent
- PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access15 credits for 1.23 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Robotics & Autonomous Systems by 2 per cent
- Shock: AI labour shock S08. −22.5 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Information & Influence Tier 4 to 3; Financial Strength Tier 5 to 6.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Policy & Market Access | +1.11 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | +1.08 | +1.22 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | +0.96 | +1.08 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | +0.80 | +0.87 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.06 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | +0.50 | +0.63 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |
| Global Value Chain Position | +0.43 | +0.56 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.02 |