Round 2030
Round 4 of 20 in simulation 15 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Trade bloc rupture, and the index −0.019 to 11.63.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.63 (−0.019)
- In: 11.65
- Rank by index
- 32
- In: 32
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 265
- In: 187
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6.63 | 6.84 | +0.211 | 7 → 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 10.86 | 10.81 | −0.051 | 5 |
| National Security | 7.54 | 7.50 | −0.041 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 14.71 | 14.77 | +0.059 | 3 |
| Information & Influence | 10.70 | 10.76 | +0.060 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 15.46 | 15.39 | −0.071 | 3 |
| Financial Strength | 13.27 | 13.19 | −0.089 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 13.03 | 12.99 | −0.037 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 12.62 | 12.40 | −0.214 | 6 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 410, plus 187 carried in. Maintenance 272. Spent 60 on actions (build 12, buy 48). 265 carried over.
- BuyEconomic Output & Productivity12 credits for 0.71 levelsmctsahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 0 per cent
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills12 credits for 1.09 levelsmcts_fill
- BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing12 credits for 1.02 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance12 credits for 1.19 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyArtificial Intelligence12 credits for 1.30 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Trade bloc rupture S01. −23.7 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 7 to 6.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +1.61 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.43 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | +1.14 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.07 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +0.86 | +0.91 | 0.00 | −0.04 | 0.00 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | +0.79 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −0.23 | 0.00 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | +0.56 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −0.14 | 0.00 |
| Space Technologies | +0.39 | +0.47 | 0.00 | −0.08 | 0.00 |