Round 2040
Round 14 of 20 in simulation 7 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock, and the index −0.057 to 12.29.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2040 (the end of 2039) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 12.29 (−0.057)
- In: 12.35
- Rank by index
- 27
- In: 26
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- In: 1
- Credits carried
- 776
- In: 717
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 9.21 | 9.29 | +0.078 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 11.20 | 11.17 | −0.030 | 5 |
| National Security | 7.84 | 7.86 | +0.021 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 15.55 | 15.47 | −0.080 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 12.20 | 12.29 | +0.099 | 5 → 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 15.43 | 15.33 | −0.095 | 3 → 4 |
| Financial Strength | 13.15 | 12.98 | −0.168 | 2 → 5 |
| Production & Innovation | 13.20 | 13.05 | −0.153 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 13.34 | 13.15 | −0.185 | 5 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2040: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 442, plus 717 carried in. Maintenance 317. Spent 66 on actions (buy 26, partner 40). 776 carried over.
- PartnerSpace, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure13 credits for 0.75 levelsmcts
- BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies13 credits for 1.12 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyArtificial Intelligence13 credits for 1.05 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerCulture, Language & Education Diplomacy13 credits for 1.10 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks13 credits for 0.91 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: AI labour shock S08. −26.2 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Information & Influence Tier 5 to 4; Governance & Integrity Tier 3 to 4; Financial Strength Tier 2 to 5.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | +0.97 | +1.12 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 |
| Artificial Intelligence | +0.96 | +1.05 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.23 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | +0.48 | +0.59 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | +0.40 | +0.55 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 |
| Digital & Services Trade | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.01 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | +0.32 | +0.46 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.02 |