Round 2042
Round 16 of 20 in simulation 11 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Breadbasket failure, and the index −0.645 to 6.08.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2042 (the end of 2041) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 6.08 (−0.644)
- In: 6.72
- Rank by index
- 95
- In: 87
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 197
- In: 173
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3.73 | 3.56 | −0.174 | 8 → 9 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 6.57 | 5.80 | −0.769 | 9 |
| National Security | 4.03 | 3.82 | −0.212 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 7.78 | 7.17 | −0.609 | 12 |
| Information & Influence | 8.38 | 7.38 | −1.003 | 8 → 10 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8.03 | 7.50 | −0.529 | 16 → 17 |
| Financial Strength | 7.57 | 6.47 | −1.093 | 20 → 23 |
| Production & Innovation | 6.91 | 6.35 | −0.567 | 15 → 16 |
| Trade & Investment | 7.49 | 6.65 | −0.846 | 11 → 13 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2042: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 161, plus 173 carried in. Maintenance 113. Spent 24 on actions (buy 14, partner 10). 197 carried over.
- BuyEconomic Output & Productivity5 credits for 0.37 levelsmcts
- BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing5 credits for 0.47 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion5 credits for 0.55 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerInvestment Attraction & Projection5 credits for 0.52 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerTrade Facilitation & Logistics5 credits for 0.56 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Breadbasket failure S06. −46.4 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 8 to 9; Information & Influence Tier 8 to 10; Governance & Integrity Tier 16 to 17; Financial Strength Tier 20 to 23; Production & Innovation Tier 15 to 16; Trade & Investment Tier 11 to 13.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | −2.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.11 | +0.05 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.94 | +0.02 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | −1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | +0.01 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | 0.00 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | −1.20 | +0.28 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.01 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.02 |