Round 2030
Round 4 of 20 in simulation 4 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock and Market access opening, and the index −0.013 to 7.24.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 7.24 (−0.013)
- In: 7.25
- Rank by index
- 78
- In: 77
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 52
- In: 37
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2.97 | 3.02 | +0.048 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7.88 | 7.90 | +0.015 | 7 |
| National Security | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.001 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 7.89 | 8.00 | +0.106 | 12 |
| Information & Influence | 8.42 | 8.33 | −0.090 | 8 → 9 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8.89 | 8.87 | −0.020 | 14 |
| Financial Strength | 8.68 | 8.63 | −0.057 | 17 |
| Production & Innovation | 7.66 | 7.60 | −0.057 | 14 |
| Trade & Investment | 8.30 | 8.23 | −0.064 | 12 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 165, plus 37 carried in. Maintenance 125. Spent 25 on actions (build 15, buy 5, partner 5). 52 carried over.
- PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance5 credits for 0.26 levelsmctsahead of Economic Output & Productivity by 0 per cent
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills5 credits for 0.59 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies5 credits for 0.70 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling5 credits for 0.57 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildDigital & AI Competence5 credits for 0.51 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: AI labour shock S08. −16.1 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
- Upside event: Market access opening S12. +8.3 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure and readiness, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Information & Influence Tier 8 to 9.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | +0.66 | +0.70 | 0.00 | −0.04 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +0.51 | +0.48 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | +0.39 | +0.46 | 0.00 | −0.07 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +0.23 | +0.31 | 0.00 | −0.08 | 0.00 |
| Digital & Services Trade | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | 0.00 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | 0.00 |