Round 1 · simulation 5 · mcts-m2b.m2b-ken-mcts-index

Round 2027

Round 1 of 20 in simulation 5 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.018 to 7.20.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2027 (the end of 2026) and as it left it.

Capability index: 7.20 (+0.018); In: 7.18
Rank by index: 79; In: 79
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 13; In: 0

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	2.90	2.90	0.000	12
Strategic Infrastructure	7.88	7.88	0.000	7
National Security	4.60	4.60	0.000	9
Human Capital	7.68	7.71	+0.037	12
Information & Influence	8.21	8.31	+0.103	9
Governance & Integrity	8.89	8.89	0.000	14
Financial Strength	8.57	8.59	+0.022	17
Production & Innovation	7.57	7.57	0.000	14
Trade & Investment	8.30	8.30	0.000	12

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2027: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 161. Maintenance 124. Spent 24 on actions (build 15, buy 5, partner 5). 13 carried over.

PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance5 credits for 0.27 levelsmctsahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 0 per cent
BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills5 credits for 0.60 levelsmcts_fill
BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling5 credits for 0.58 levelsmcts_fill
BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance5 credits for 0.62 levelsmcts_fill
BuildDigital & AI Competence5 credits for 0.52 levelsmcts_fill

The groups that moved most in 2027, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Invested
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	+0.62	+0.62
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	+0.14	+0.14
Technical & Vocational Skills	+0.12	+0.12
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	+0.12	+0.12
Digital & AI Competence	+0.10	+0.10