Round 2028
Round 2 of 20 in simulation 5 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Breadbasket failure, and the index −0.635 to 6.56.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2028 (the end of 2027) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 6.56 (−0.635)
- In: 7.20
- Rank by index
- 90
- In: 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 26
- In: 12
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2.90 | 2.82 | −0.083 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7.88 | 7.05 | −0.831 | 7 → 8 |
| National Security | 4.60 | 4.37 | −0.225 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 7.71 | 7.22 | −0.493 | 12 → 13 |
| Information & Influence | 8.31 | 7.44 | −0.875 | 9 → 10 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8.89 | 8.38 | −0.518 | 14 → 16 |
| Financial Strength | 8.59 | 7.56 | −1.026 | 17 → 21 |
| Production & Innovation | 7.57 | 6.91 | −0.663 | 14 → 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 8.30 | 7.29 | −1.004 | 12 → 13 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2028: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 162, plus 12 carried in. Maintenance 124. Spent 24 on actions (build 15, buy 5, partner 5). 26 carried over.
- PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance5 credits for 0.27 levelsmctsahead of Economic Output & Productivity by 0 per cent
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills5 credits for 0.60 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling5 credits for 0.58 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies5 credits for 0.72 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildDigital & AI Competence5 credits for 0.51 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Breadbasket failure S06. −44.7 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Strategic Infrastructure Tier 7 to 8; Human Capital Tier 12 to 13; Information & Influence Tier 9 to 10; Governance & Integrity Tier 14 to 16; Financial Strength Tier 17 to 21; Production & Innovation Tier 14 to 15; Trade & Investment Tier 12 to 13.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.96 | 0.00 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.01 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | 0.00 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | −1.36 | +0.27 | 0.00 | −1.63 | 0.00 |
| Energy Infrastructure | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | 0.00 |