Simulation 2
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 2: median simulation of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.50 in 2046; 90 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 2
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 11 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.50 (+1.49)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | 16.00 0.000 | |
| 2028 | No actions | Breadbasket failure | 15.79 −0.215 |
| 2029 |
| 15.81 +0.022 | |
| 2030 |
| 15.87 +0.062 | |
| 2031 |
| 15.96 +0.088 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.13 +0.170 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.26 +0.132 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.40 +0.135 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.56 +0.164 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.71 +0.152 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.79 +0.083 | |
| 2038 |
| 16.87 +0.074 | |
| 2039 |
| 16.95 +0.079 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.05 +0.098 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.17 +0.123 | |
| 2042 |
| Regional war spillover | 17.00 −0.171 |
| 2043 |
| 17.13 +0.135 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.26 +0.131 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.36 +0.094 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.50 +0.138 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.073 | −142.7 | −5.00 |
| No shocks | +0.400 | +29.6 | +0.40 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.140 | +9.9 | +0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.168 | +12.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.181 | +14.1 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.72 | +5.22 | +5.38 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.25 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.94 | +4.44 | +7.27 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.90 | +4.40 | +4.86 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.20 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 18.19 | +3.99 | +4.50 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.12 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.80 | +3.80 | +4.42 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.57 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.74 | +3.74 | +3.87 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.15 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 19.00 | +3.67 | +3.90 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.07 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 19.48 | +3.48 | +3.70 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.07 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.77 | +3.44 | +3.70 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.02 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.29 | +3.29 | +3.54 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.01 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.97 | +2.97 | +3.55 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.18 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.95 | +2.95 | +3.03 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.22 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.86 | +2.86 | +3.09 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.34 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.37 | +2.70 | +3.04 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.08 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.98 | +2.65 | +3.28 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.08 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.63 | +2.63 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.37 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 17.94 | +2.61 | +3.49 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.29 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.60 | +2.60 | +2.90 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.09 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.55 | +2.55 | +2.62 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.19 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.80 | +2.55 | +3.17 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.09 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.54 | +2.54 | +2.92 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.03 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 18.30 | +2.50 | +2.73 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.06 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 14.17 | +2.42 | +3.07 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.24 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 17.39 | +2.39 | +2.62 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.05 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.08 | +2.33 | +2.81 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.12 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 16.87 | +2.20 | +2.36 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.14 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.64 | +2.14 | +2.77 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.06 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.56 | +2.06 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.10 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.37 | +1.87 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.43 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.87 | +1.87 | +2.10 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.48 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.04 | +1.84 | +2.11 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.27 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.01 | +1.68 | +2.01 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.23 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.16 | +1.56 | +1.80 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.05 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.75 | +1.55 | +1.44 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.40 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.93 | +1.43 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.30 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.17 | +1.37 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.28 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.85 | +1.35 | +2.72 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.02 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 18.04 | +1.33 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.27 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.16 | +1.16 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.23 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 18.37 | +1.12 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.13 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.68 | +1.08 | +1.44 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.21 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.58 | +1.08 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.01 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.05 | +1.05 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.34 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 17.70 | +1.03 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.13 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 16.76 | +1.01 | +1.52 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.08 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.22 | +0.89 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.11 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 14.55 | +0.88 | +1.33 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.07 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.63 | +0.63 | +1.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.17 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.30 | +0.17 | +1.21 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.08 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.39 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.44 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.13 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.70 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 16.61 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.21 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.55 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.02 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.37 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.15 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 18.19 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.33 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.77 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.32 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.71 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.20 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.03 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.19 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.36 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.11 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.43 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.17 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.49 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.15 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.86 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.14 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 15.11 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.03 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 16.35 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.32 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 16.21 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.14 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.01 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.50 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.09 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.91 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.31 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 15.62 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.12 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.93 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.05 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 14.49 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.04 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.16 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.04 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.14 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.01 |
Seed 2 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-kor-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.