Simulation 11
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 11: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 16.66 in 2046; 95 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 11
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 2 (median simulation), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 16.66 (+0.66)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | Core disaster | 15.59 −0.409 |
| 2028 |
| 15.63 +0.033 | |
| 2029 |
| 15.66 +0.039 | |
| 2030 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 15.65 −0.014 |
| 2031 |
| 15.68 +0.025 | |
| 2032 |
| 15.72 +0.041 | |
| 2033 |
| 15.81 +0.091 | |
| 2034 |
| 15.93 +0.119 | |
| 2035 |
| Regional war spillover | 15.68 −0.244 |
| 2036 |
| 15.84 +0.152 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.03 +0.190 | |
| 2038 |
| 16.14 +0.111 | |
| 2039 |
| 16.22 +0.081 | |
| 2040 |
| 16.30 +0.085 | |
| 2041 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.19 −0.112 |
| 2042 |
| Breadbasket failure | 16.13 −0.064 |
| 2043 |
| 16.26 +0.133 | |
| 2044 |
| 16.36 +0.098 | |
| 2045 |
| 16.51 +0.154 | |
| 2046 |
| 16.66 +0.147 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.073 | −142.7 | −5.00 |
| No shocks | +0.400 | +29.6 | +0.40 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.140 | +9.9 | +0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.168 | +12.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.181 | +14.1 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.83 | +4.33 | +7.24 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.02 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.52 | +4.02 | +5.07 | 0.00 | −1.31 | +0.26 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.79 | +3.79 | +6.65 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.01 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.69 | +3.49 | +4.85 | 0.00 | −1.48 | +0.12 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 17.68 | +3.18 | +4.86 | 0.00 | −1.87 | +0.20 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.35 | +3.02 | +5.70 | 0.00 | −2.77 | +0.09 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.02 | +3.02 | +4.42 | 0.00 | −1.64 | +0.24 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.98 | +2.98 | +3.67 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.17 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.71 | +2.71 | +3.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.42 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.65 | +2.65 | +3.35 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.07 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.30 | +2.30 | +2.67 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.28 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.85 | +2.25 | +3.11 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.05 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.35 | +2.10 | +3.88 | 0.00 | −1.86 | +0.07 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.29 | +2.09 | +3.52 | 0.00 | −1.50 | +0.07 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.58 | +2.08 | +3.65 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.09 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.57 | +2.07 | +4.33 | 0.00 | −2.50 | +0.24 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.07 | +2.07 | +4.00 | 0.00 | −2.23 | +0.29 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.04 | +2.04 | +3.09 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.26 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 18.97 | +1.72 | +2.42 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.04 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.38 | +1.71 | +3.33 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.03 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 16.70 | +1.70 | +2.68 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.09 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.44 | +1.64 | +2.68 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.24 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.10 | +1.60 | +4.18 | 0.00 | −2.31 | −0.27 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 17.81 | +1.48 | +3.37 | 0.00 | −1.87 | −0.02 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.75 | +1.42 | +3.59 | 0.00 | −2.20 | +0.03 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 17.14 | +1.39 | +2.85 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.03 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 17.66 | +1.33 | +2.35 | 0.00 | −1.02 | 0.00 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 13.04 | +1.29 | +3.19 | 0.00 | −1.99 | +0.08 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.02 | +1.27 | +3.03 | 0.00 | −1.55 | −0.21 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.18 | +1.18 | +3.45 | 0.00 | −2.21 | −0.06 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 16.72 | +0.92 | +1.54 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.14 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.21 | +0.88 | +2.28 | 0.00 | −1.49 | +0.09 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.06 | +0.86 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.42 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.28 | +0.78 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.06 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.35 | +0.64 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.22 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.53 | +0.53 | +2.23 | 0.00 | −1.74 | +0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 16.48 | +0.48 | +1.31 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.04 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.07 | +0.47 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.24 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 15.40 | +0.40 | +1.68 | 0.00 | −1.55 | +0.27 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.05 | +0.38 | +0.99 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.16 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 15.38 | +0.38 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.07 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.31 | +0.31 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −1.53 | +0.29 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 17.71 | +0.21 | +3.71 | 0.00 | −3.11 | −0.40 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 16.76 | +0.09 | +1.53 | 0.00 | −1.53 | +0.10 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.66 | −0.01 | +1.24 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.10 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.41 | −0.09 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.18 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 15.97 | −0.16 | +2.64 | 0.00 | −2.79 | −0.02 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.00 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.53 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.41 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | −0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 15.75 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.08 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 14.39 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.05 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.05 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.13 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 16.48 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.02 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 15.30 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.23 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 16.96 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | +0.47 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 15.61 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.11 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 14.53 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | 0.00 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 14.23 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.32 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.06 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 14.47 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.24 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.14 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.10 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 14.58 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.17 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 15.53 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.91 | +0.44 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 16.92 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.05 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 14.71 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.01 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 14.35 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | +0.03 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 13.66 | −1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | +0.04 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 14.97 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.09 | +0.26 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 14.46 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | +0.06 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 15.10 | −1.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.89 | −0.02 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 13.82 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.27 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 14.02 | −1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.01 | +0.03 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 14.44 | −2.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.30 | +0.24 |
Seed 11 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-kor-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.