Simulation 9
South Korea, greedy, 30 years, seed 9: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.03 in 2056; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 9
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 2 (median simulation), 10 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2056.
- Capability index
- 18.03 (+2.03)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.036 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.09 +0.051 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.17 +0.082 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.33 +0.162 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.45 +0.119 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.56 +0.108 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.66 +0.102 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.76 +0.101 | |
| 2035 |
| AI labour shock | 16.77 +0.010 |
| 2036 |
| 16.79 +0.012 | |
| 2037 |
| Global funding seizure | 16.66 −0.126 |
| 2038 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.25 −0.408 |
| 2039 |
| 16.38 +0.128 | |
| 2040 |
| 16.47 +0.087 | |
| 2041 |
| 16.58 +0.111 | |
| 2042 |
| 16.67 +0.097 | |
| 2043 |
| 16.75 +0.081 | |
| 2044 |
| 16.86 +0.107 | |
| 2045 |
| 16.97 +0.105 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.08 +0.113 | |
| 2047 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 17.09 +0.006 |
| 2048 |
| 17.07 −0.020 | |
| 2049 |
| 17.03 −0.033 | |
| 2050 |
| 17.13 +0.093 | |
| 2051 |
| 17.24 +0.118 | |
| 2052 |
| 17.32 +0.083 | |
| 2053 |
| 17.40 +0.074 | |
| 2054 |
| Clean power threshold | 17.59 +0.192 |
| 2055 |
| 17.79 +0.196 | |
| 2056 |
| 18.03 +0.242 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 | 2056 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −3.260 | −227.1 | −7.00 |
| No shocks | +0.263 | +18.9 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.015 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.014 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | −0.100 | −7.9 | −0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.134 | +8.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | −0.121 | −10.5 | −0.50 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2056 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 16.38 | +4.63 | +5.56 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.14 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 18.75 | +4.55 | +5.74 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.23 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.95 | +4.45 | +7.20 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.15 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.72 | +4.22 | +5.59 | 0.00 | −1.54 | +0.17 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.63 | +4.13 | +4.87 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.25 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.99 | +3.99 | +4.05 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.34 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.95 | +3.62 | +6.25 | 0.00 | −2.89 | +0.26 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.60 | +3.60 | +6.44 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.12 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 19.15 | +3.40 | +4.30 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.33 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 18.70 | +3.37 | +3.70 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.10 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.33 | +3.33 | +4.48 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.32 | +3.32 | +3.54 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.19 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 19.90 | +3.23 | +3.56 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.20 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.52 | +3.19 | +3.60 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.02 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.80 | +3.13 | +4.18 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.30 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.08 | +3.08 | +3.67 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.45 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 17.62 | +2.95 | +3.58 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.22 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.90 | +2.90 | +2.93 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.47 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.38 | +2.88 | +4.90 | 0.00 | −2.41 | +0.38 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 17.87 | +2.87 | +2.54 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.75 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.86 | +2.86 | +4.40 | 0.00 | −1.74 | +0.20 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.77 | +2.77 | +4.39 | 0.00 | −2.08 | +0.46 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.45 | +2.70 | +3.95 | 0.00 | −1.48 | +0.23 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.15 | +2.65 | +3.89 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.03 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.62 | +2.62 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.20 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.81 | +2.61 | +2.86 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.39 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.59 | +2.59 | +2.59 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.41 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.91 | +2.58 | +4.24 | 0.00 | −1.87 | +0.21 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.79 | +2.54 | +4.40 | 0.00 | −1.95 | +0.09 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 18.31 | +2.51 | +3.06 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.27 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.35 | +2.35 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.40 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 17.94 | +2.27 | +2.59 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.18 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.46 | +2.21 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.31 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.81 | +2.21 | +2.74 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.26 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 18.17 | +2.17 | +2.46 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.29 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 18.66 | +2.16 | +2.69 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.29 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.66 | +2.16 | +3.33 | 0.00 | −1.31 | +0.14 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.75 | +2.15 | +2.91 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.06 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.14 | +2.14 | +3.96 | 0.00 | −2.08 | +0.26 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.63 | +2.13 | +2.78 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.14 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.31 | +2.11 | +2.81 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.53 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.79 | +1.99 | +2.77 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.24 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.64 | +1.97 | +2.97 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.19 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.38 | +1.88 | +4.04 | 0.00 | −2.24 | +0.08 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.17 | +1.84 | +2.27 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.29 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 17.32 | +1.82 | +2.83 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.02 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.13 | +1.80 | +3.69 | 0.00 | −2.06 | +0.17 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 18.49 | +1.78 | +2.70 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.30 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.78 | +1.65 | +2.39 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.23 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 18.58 | +1.58 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.14 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 18.17 | +1.50 | +2.75 | 0.00 | −1.50 | +0.25 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.01 | +1.01 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.28 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 17.17 | +0.97 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.35 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.65 | +0.85 | +1.18 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.37 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.80 | +0.80 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.24 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 16.61 | +0.78 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.20 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 17.09 | +0.76 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −1.89 | +0.13 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 14.38 | +0.71 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.20 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.59 | +0.59 | +1.10 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.17 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.53 | +0.53 | +0.94 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.79 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.65 | +0.15 | +1.24 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.12 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.63 | +0.13 | +1.10 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.28 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 18.39 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.67 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.98 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.68 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.49 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 13.70 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.31 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 15.77 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.27 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.09 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.17 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.01 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.03 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.68 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.02 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 14.76 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.22 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 13.98 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | +0.13 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 14.63 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.09 |
Seed 9 of experiment mcts-m4.m4-kor-greedy-30y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.