Median simulation · mcts-m4.m4-kor-greedy-30y

Simulation 2

South Korea, greedy, 30 years, seed 2: median simulation of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.71 in 2056; 126 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 2

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 10 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2056.

Capability index: 17.71 (+1.71); From 16.00
Rank by index: 2; From 6
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 5 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 30 Build Digital & AI Competence 30 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 30 Build Advanced Education 30		16.04 +0.036
2028	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 30 Build Digital & AI Competence 30 Build Advanced Education 30 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 30	Breadbasket failure	15.88 −0.164
2029	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 30 Build Foundational Education 30 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 30		15.96 +0.080
2030	Build Foundational Education 30 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 30 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 30 Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 30		16.11 +0.160
2031	Build Economic Output & Productivity 30 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 30 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 30 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 30 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30		16.24 +0.125
2032	Build Economic Output & Productivity 31 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 31 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 31 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 31 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 31		16.35 +0.114
2033	Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 31 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 31 Build Early Childhood Development 31 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 31 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 31		16.45 +0.098
2034	Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 32 Partner Digital & Services Trade 32 Build Population Health 32 Partner Global Value Chain Position 32 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 32		16.57 +0.114
2035	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 33 Build Population Health 33 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 33 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 33 Build Early Childhood Development 33		16.70 +0.138
2036	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 33 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 33 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 33 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 33 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 33		16.80 +0.092
2037	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 33 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 33 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 33 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 33 Build Financial Infrastructure 33		16.90 +0.104
2038	Buy Artificial Intelligence 33 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 33 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 33 Build Resource Infrastructure 33 Build Financial Infrastructure 33		17.02 +0.118
2039	Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 33 Build Labour & Employment 33 Build Resource Infrastructure 33 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 33 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 33		17.13 +0.114
2040	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 33 Build Labour & Employment 33 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 33 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 33 Build Health System Capability 33		17.25 +0.117
2041	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 33 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 33 Partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 33 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 33 Build Health System Capability 33		17.40 +0.153
2042	Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 33 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 33 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 33 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 33 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 33	Regional war spillover	17.21 −0.196
2043	Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 33 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 33 Partner Digital & Services Trade 33 Buy Energy Infrastructure 33 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 33		17.33 +0.122
2044	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 32 Build Internal Security & Order 32 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 32 Build Financial System Depth & Access 32 Buy Energy Infrastructure 32		17.43 +0.102
2045	Build Diaspora & Global Communities 32 Build Internal Security & Order 32 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 32 Build Financial System Depth & Access 32 Build Resource Infrastructure 32		17.54 +0.105
2046	Partner Space Technologies 33 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 33 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 33 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 33 Build Resource Infrastructure 33		17.62 +0.088
2047	Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 33 Build Transport Infrastructure 33 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 33 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 33 Buy Artificial Intelligence 33		17.71 +0.089
2048	Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 33 Buy Energy Technologies 33 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 33 Build Transport Infrastructure 33 Buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies 33		17.81 +0.101
2049	Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 33		17.88 +0.069
2050	No actions		17.89 +0.011
2051	No actions	Hybrid coercionBreadbasket failureWater-efficient food leap	17.58 −0.313
2052	Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 33 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 33 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 33 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 11	Regional war spillover	17.39 −0.191
2053	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 34 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 34 Partner Global Value Chain Position 34 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 34 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 34		17.49 +0.102
2054	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 33 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 33 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 33 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 22		17.60 +0.109
2055	Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 34 Buy Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 34		17.69 +0.092
2056	No actions		17.71 +0.021

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046					2051					2056
Critical Technology	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1
National Security	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Human Capital	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	4	4	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	5	5	5	5	5	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−3.260	−227.1	−7.00
No shocks	+0.263	+18.9	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.015	−1.1	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.015	−1.2	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.011	−0.8	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.014	−0.9	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.015	−1.2	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	−0.100	−7.9	−0.33
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.134	+8.8	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	−0.121	−10.5	−0.50

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2056	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	19.24	+4.74	+5.40	−0.07	−0.88	+0.29
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	19.92	+4.59	+5.01	−0.02	−0.35	+0.30
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	20.00	+4.50	+7.28	−0.03	+0.04	+0.14
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	16.20	+4.45	+5.76	−0.04	−1.51	+0.25
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	19.19	+4.19	+3.94	−0.02	−0.36	+0.63
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	19.99	+3.99	+6.55	−0.03	−0.19	+0.07
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	17.78	+3.58	+4.51	−0.05	−1.11	+0.23
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	19.58	+3.58	+3.71	−0.02	−0.36	+0.25
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	19.87	+3.54	+3.66	−0.02	−0.13	+0.03
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	18.78	+3.45	+5.07	−0.06	−2.09	+0.53
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	17.87	+3.37	+4.61	−0.07	−1.35	+0.18
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	18.31	+3.31	+3.48	−0.02	−0.38	+0.23
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	19.11	+3.11	+3.97	−0.07	−1.22	+0.42
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	19.99	+2.99	+3.42	−0.03	−0.21	+0.28
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	18.98	+2.98	+2.88	−0.04	−0.28	+0.41
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	19.42	+2.92	+4.52	−0.04	−2.11	+0.55
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	18.72	+2.72	+3.07	−0.11	−0.46	+0.22
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	18.62	+2.62	+2.87	−0.02	−0.48	+0.25
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	19.60	+2.60	+2.52	−0.03	−0.22	+0.33
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	17.60	+2.60	+3.22	−0.06	−0.89	+0.32
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	19.55	+2.55	+2.74	−0.03	−0.47	+0.31
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	18.26	+2.51	+3.07	−0.06	−0.91	+0.41
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.48	+2.48	+3.28	−0.06	−1.21	+0.47
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	19.62	+2.37	+2.39	−0.03	−0.22	+0.22
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.95	+2.35	+2.99	−0.11	−0.58	+0.05
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.83	+2.33	+3.12	−0.05	−0.94	+0.20
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	18.62	+2.29	+3.28	−0.07	−1.24	+0.30
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.20	+2.20	+3.22	−0.06	−1.21	+0.25
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	18.86	+2.19	+2.29	−0.03	−0.23	+0.16
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	17.85	+2.18	+2.69	−0.02	−0.73	+0.23
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	17.89	+2.14	+2.82	−0.04	−0.89	+0.26
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	17.70	+2.03	+3.05	−0.07	−1.22	+0.27
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	18.22	+2.02	+2.62	−0.02	−0.85	+0.26
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	18.21	+1.96	+3.18	−0.07	−1.23	+0.08
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	17.45	+1.95	+2.84	−0.06	−0.86	+0.03
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	18.33	+1.83	+2.55	−0.06	−0.88	+0.22
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	18.27	+1.77	+2.77	−0.06	−0.89	−0.04
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	18.76	+1.76	+2.40	−0.04	−0.80	+0.20
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	18.92	+1.72	+2.01	−0.02	−0.77	+0.50
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	18.99	+1.66	+2.79	−0.06	−1.20	+0.14
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	17.83	+1.63	+1.46	−0.10	−0.21	+0.48
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	19.11	+1.61	+3.82	−0.06	−2.48	+0.34
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	18.11	+1.44	+2.31	−0.06	−0.93	+0.12
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	17.67	+1.34	+2.46	−0.04	−1.32	+0.24
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	17.95	+1.24	+1.47	−0.09	−0.42	+0.29
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	17.71	+1.21	+1.45	−0.10	−0.44	+0.31
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	17.69	+1.19	+2.32	−0.04	−1.36	+0.27
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	17.52	+1.19	+2.13	−0.05	−1.08	+0.19
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	16.88	+1.08	+1.53	−0.10	−0.45	+0.10
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	15.52	+0.85	+1.22	−0.09	−0.45	+0.17
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	17.65	+0.85	+1.49	−0.06	−0.92	+0.35
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	18.82	+0.82	+1.27	−0.07	−0.73	+0.34
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	17.26	+0.66	+1.47	−0.10	−0.97	+0.26
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	17.14	+0.47	+1.31	−0.04	−0.94	+0.13
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	17.06	+0.26	+1.15	−0.04	−1.15	+0.31
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	16.32	+0.19	+2.38	−0.05	−2.40	+0.26
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	16.18	+0.18	+1.50	−0.07	−1.47	+0.22
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	15.94	+0.11	+1.52	−0.07	−1.48	+0.14
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	17.96	−0.04	+0.97	−0.07	−1.23	+0.29
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	14.19	−0.06	0.00	−0.08	−0.45	+0.47
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	17.83	−0.17	0.00	−0.06	−0.94	+0.83
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	1.42	−0.25	0.00	0.00	−0.23	−0.02
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	17.16	−0.34	0.00	−0.10	−0.41	+0.17
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	17.79	−0.61	0.00	−0.05	−1.00	+0.44
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	16.29	−0.71	0.00	−0.04	−1.03	+0.36
Air Power	National Security	16.75	15.70	−1.05	0.00	−0.07	−1.18	+0.20
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	12.57	−1.10	0.00	−0.06	−1.24	+0.20
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	15.22	−1.11	0.00	−0.07	−1.18	+0.15
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	14.56	−1.19	0.00	−0.04	−1.21	+0.06
Land Power	National Security	16.50	15.22	−1.28	0.00	−0.07	−1.18	−0.03
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	14.20	−1.80	0.00	−0.07	−1.89	+0.15
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	13.45	−1.88	0.00	−0.07	−1.91	+0.09
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	13.78	−2.22	0.00	−0.07	−2.17	+0.01

Seed 2 of experiment mcts-m4.m4-kor-greedy-30y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.