Simulation 10
South Korea, greedy, 30 years, seed 10: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.53 in 2056; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 10
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 2 (median simulation), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2056.
- Capability index
- 17.53 (+1.53)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 7 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Breadbasket failure | 15.83 −0.175 |
| 2028 |
| 15.88 +0.049 | |
| 2029 |
| 15.95 +0.077 | |
| 2030 |
| Hybrid coercion | 15.78 −0.177 |
| 2031 |
| 15.91 +0.133 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.06 +0.149 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.16 +0.097 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.25 +0.094 | |
| 2035 |
| AI labour shock | 16.25 +0.006 |
| 2036 |
| Middle East settlement | 16.36 +0.107 |
| 2037 |
| 16.44 +0.078 | |
| 2038 |
| 16.62 +0.175 | |
| 2039 |
| 16.71 +0.093 | |
| 2040 |
| 16.82 +0.110 | |
| 2041 |
| 16.97 +0.151 | |
| 2042 |
| 17.12 +0.154 | |
| 2043 |
| AI labour shock | 17.12 +0.001 |
| 2044 |
| 17.13 +0.008 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.13 −0.002 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.24 +0.108 | |
| 2047 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 17.26 +0.024 |
| 2048 |
| 17.26 +0.002 | |
| 2049 |
| Breadbasket failure | 17.11 −0.152 |
| 2050 |
| 17.18 +0.069 | |
| 2051 |
| 17.26 +0.076 | |
| 2052 |
| 17.33 +0.076 | |
| 2053 |
| 17.42 +0.091 | |
| 2054 |
| 17.51 +0.082 | |
| 2055 |
| Breadbasket failure | 17.40 −0.109 |
| 2056 |
| 17.53 +0.131 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 | 2056 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −3.260 | −227.1 | −7.00 |
| No shocks | +0.263 | +18.9 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.015 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.014 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | −0.100 | −7.9 | −0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.134 | +8.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | −0.121 | −10.5 | −0.50 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2056 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.91 | +4.41 | +6.10 | 0.00 | −2.02 | +0.33 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.88 | +4.38 | +6.89 | 0.00 | −2.78 | +0.27 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 18.44 | +4.24 | +5.70 | 0.00 | −1.65 | +0.20 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.62 | +4.12 | +7.29 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.18 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 15.16 | +3.41 | +4.50 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.20 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.29 | +3.29 | +3.63 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.45 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.25 | +3.25 | +6.57 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.12 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 17.76 | +3.09 | +4.47 | 0.00 | −1.53 | +0.14 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.07 | +3.07 | +3.49 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.15 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 18.28 | +2.95 | +3.57 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.15 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.77 | +2.77 | +4.60 | 0.00 | −2.19 | +0.37 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 18.95 | +2.62 | +3.74 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.06 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 17.85 | +2.52 | +4.75 | 0.00 | −2.53 | +0.29 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.44 | +2.44 | +2.90 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.39 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.37 | +2.37 | +4.50 | 0.00 | −2.21 | +0.08 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.33 | +2.33 | +3.51 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.24 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 18.32 | +2.32 | +4.29 | 0.00 | −2.25 | +0.28 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.52 | +2.32 | +3.23 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.41 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 17.77 | +2.27 | +4.11 | 0.00 | −1.87 | +0.03 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.70 | +2.20 | +3.64 | 0.00 | −1.54 | +0.11 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.14 | +2.14 | +2.86 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.39 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.61 | +2.11 | +3.13 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.20 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.27 | +2.02 | +2.38 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.37 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.44 | +1.94 | +3.83 | 0.00 | −1.90 | +0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.39 | +1.89 | +4.12 | 0.00 | −2.67 | +0.44 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.60 | +1.85 | +3.10 | 0.00 | −1.62 | +0.37 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.83 | +1.83 | +2.58 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.36 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 17.82 | +1.82 | +2.82 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.13 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.48 | +1.81 | +4.74 | 0.00 | −3.12 | +0.20 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.05 | +1.80 | +4.54 | 0.00 | −2.87 | +0.12 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 17.51 | +1.76 | +2.85 | 0.00 | −1.38 | +0.28 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 18.43 | +1.76 | +2.34 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.20 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.54 | +1.74 | +3.08 | 0.00 | −1.50 | +0.16 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 17.68 | +1.68 | +2.54 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.24 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 17.89 | +1.56 | +3.44 | 0.00 | −2.09 | +0.21 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.69 | +1.49 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −1.81 | +0.28 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.49 | +1.49 | +3.76 | 0.00 | −2.46 | +0.19 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.96 | +1.46 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.24 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.06 | +1.46 | +3.13 | 0.00 | −1.76 | +0.09 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.93 | +1.43 | +2.74 | 0.00 | −1.48 | +0.17 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.73 | +1.40 | +3.73 | 0.00 | −2.44 | +0.11 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.00 | +1.40 | +2.67 | 0.00 | −1.57 | +0.31 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.52 | +1.39 | +3.28 | 0.00 | −2.16 | +0.27 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.37 | +1.37 | +3.39 | 0.00 | −2.46 | +0.44 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 17.98 | +1.31 | +2.91 | 0.00 | −1.61 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 18.00 | +1.29 | +2.71 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.38 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.51 | +1.18 | +2.28 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.22 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 17.96 | +1.16 | +2.73 | 0.00 | −1.90 | +0.33 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.15 | +1.15 | +2.54 | 0.00 | −1.69 | +0.30 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 18.06 | +1.06 | +2.36 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.13 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.51 | +1.01 | +3.66 | 0.00 | −2.75 | +0.11 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.69 | +0.89 | +2.37 | 0.00 | −1.81 | +0.33 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 14.44 | +0.77 | +1.35 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.26 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.83 | +0.50 | +1.11 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.18 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 16.30 | +0.47 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.15 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.63 | +0.43 | +1.22 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.30 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.33 | +0.33 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.22 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.62 | +0.29 | +2.48 | 0.00 | −2.32 | +0.13 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.94 | +0.27 | +1.21 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.24 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 16.70 | +0.03 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.15 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.66 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 17.85 | −0.15 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −1.68 | +0.27 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.03 | −0.47 | +1.21 | 0.00 | −1.76 | +0.08 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.58 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.22 | −0.53 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −1.86 | +0.03 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.45 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.25 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.12 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.16 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 14.61 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.09 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.62 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.46 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.67 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.04 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 16.96 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | +0.61 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 13.11 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | +0.40 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 14.73 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.05 |
Seed 10 of experiment mcts-m4.m4-kor-greedy-30y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.