Simulation 110
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 110: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.23 in 2046; 79 actions over 20 rounds and 0 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 110
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 104 (median simulation), 109 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.23 (+2.23)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 0 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | 16.00 0.000 | |
| 2028 | No actions | 16.00 0.000 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.05 +0.043 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.11 +0.065 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.20 +0.089 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.34 +0.138 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.43 +0.093 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.56 +0.134 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.73 +0.169 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.84 +0.103 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.92 +0.087 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.02 +0.095 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.11 +0.094 | |
| 2040 |
| Market access openingClean power threshold | 17.34 +0.226 |
| 2041 | No actions | 17.55 +0.216 | |
| 2042 |
| 17.80 +0.244 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.96 +0.164 | |
| 2044 |
| 18.16 +0.199 | |
| 2045 |
| 18.28 +0.117 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 18.23 −0.046 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.209 | −151.4 | −5.33 |
| No shocks | +0.525 | +40.5 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.021 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.024 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.020 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.023 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.148 | +10.6 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.156 | +11.9 | +0.50 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.223 | +15.5 | +0.50 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.86 | +5.36 | +5.17 | −0.15 | +0.30 | +0.45 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.90 | +4.57 | +3.74 | −0.14 | +0.59 | +0.49 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 19.89 | +4.56 | +3.88 | −0.04 | +0.59 | +0.13 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.96 | +4.46 | +6.34 | −0.07 | +0.81 | +0.14 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 16.02 | +4.27 | +3.08 | −0.08 | +0.97 | +0.31 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 19.02 | +4.02 | +3.21 | −0.13 | +0.59 | +0.34 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 19.99 | +3.99 | +3.72 | −0.04 | +0.59 | +0.16 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.96 | +3.96 | +5.52 | −0.07 | +0.40 | +0.07 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.38 | +3.88 | +3.40 | −0.14 | +0.30 | +0.32 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 19.50 | +3.75 | +3.07 | −0.13 | +0.59 | +0.22 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.87 | +3.67 | +3.02 | −0.09 | +0.49 | +0.25 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.96 | +3.63 | +2.50 | −0.04 | +1.19 | +0.02 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.89 | +3.56 | +3.13 | −0.14 | +0.81 | +0.30 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 19.29 | +3.54 | +2.94 | −0.09 | +0.49 | +0.20 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.50 | +3.50 | +2.63 | −0.04 | +0.59 | +0.31 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 19.96 | +3.46 | +3.00 | −0.10 | +0.59 | +0.15 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.32 | +3.32 | +2.88 | −0.04 | +0.40 | +0.08 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.27 | +3.27 | +2.56 | −0.04 | +0.59 | +0.15 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.70 | +3.20 | +2.46 | −0.13 | +0.59 | +0.28 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.66 | +3.16 | +2.33 | −0.09 | +0.49 | +0.44 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.06 | +3.06 | +2.43 | −0.14 | +0.30 | +0.47 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.98 | +2.98 | +2.52 | −0.07 | +0.40 | +0.36 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.95 | +2.95 | +2.26 | −0.07 | +0.40 | +0.37 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 17.61 | +2.94 | +2.47 | −0.20 | +0.49 | +0.18 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.88 | +2.88 | +1.97 | −0.14 | +0.81 | +0.46 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.85 | +2.85 | +2.16 | −0.07 | +0.40 | +0.36 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.96 | +2.71 | +2.29 | −0.07 | +0.40 | +0.20 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 16.34 | +2.67 | +2.72 | −0.16 | 0.00 | +0.11 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.90 | +2.65 | +1.79 | −0.13 | +0.81 | +0.18 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.73 | +2.53 | +1.01 | −0.04 | +1.19 | +0.37 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.49 | +2.49 | +1.90 | −0.23 | +0.49 | +0.33 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.90 | +2.40 | +1.41 | −0.13 | +0.97 | +0.15 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.28 | +2.28 | +1.50 | −0.14 | +0.59 | +0.32 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.67 | +2.17 | +1.28 | −0.14 | +0.81 | +0.22 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.75 | +2.15 | +1.75 | −0.23 | +0.49 | +0.14 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.72 | +2.05 | +1.74 | −0.13 | +0.30 | +0.14 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.37 | +2.04 | +1.33 | −0.14 | +0.59 | +0.25 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.04 | +2.04 | +1.35 | −0.06 | +0.40 | +0.35 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.81 | +2.01 | +1.57 | −0.22 | +0.49 | +0.17 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.29 | +1.96 | +1.05 | −0.10 | +0.59 | +0.42 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.61 | +1.94 | +1.32 | −0.13 | +0.59 | +0.16 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.71 | +1.91 | +1.44 | −0.13 | +0.30 | +0.30 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.10 | +1.90 | +1.38 | −0.22 | +0.49 | +0.25 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 18.21 | +1.88 | +1.28 | −0.08 | +0.49 | +0.19 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 17.24 | +1.74 | +1.54 | −0.12 | +0.30 | +0.03 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.45 | +1.32 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +1.19 | +0.22 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.20 | +1.20 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.97 | +0.37 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.18 | +1.18 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.59 | +0.69 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 2.82 | +1.15 | +1.17 | −0.01 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.65 | +1.15 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.81 | +0.43 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.60 | +1.10 | +0.47 | −0.21 | +0.49 | +0.35 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.08 | +1.08 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.59 | +0.62 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.41 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.59 | +0.52 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 18.01 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.86 | +0.23 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.58 | +0.98 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.86 | +0.32 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.76 | +0.96 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.59 | +0.46 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 15.10 | +0.85 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.49 | +0.54 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.49 | +0.82 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.59 | +0.26 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.96 | +0.76 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.59 | +0.20 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.66 | +0.66 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.59 | +0.22 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.38 | +0.63 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.59 | +0.12 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.30 | +0.63 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.40 | +0.28 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 17.28 | +0.61 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.49 | +0.20 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.23 | +0.52 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.49 | +0.24 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.97 | +0.47 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.49 | +0.19 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.50 | +0.17 | 0.00 | −0.16 | 0.00 | +0.33 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.16 | +0.16 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 | +0.32 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.78 | +0.03 | 0.00 | −0.16 | 0.00 | +0.19 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.35 | +0.02 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 | +0.17 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.80 | −0.03 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.94 | −0.06 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 | +0.09 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.43 | −0.07 | 0.00 | −0.16 | 0.00 | +0.08 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.91 | −0.09 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 | +0.07 |
Seed 110 of experiment mcts-m6.m6-kor-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.