Simulation 109
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 109: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.27 in 2046; 90 actions over 20 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 109
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 104 (median simulation), 110 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.27 (+1.27)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | 16.00 0.000 | |
| 2028 | No actions | 16.00 0.000 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.04 +0.037 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.11 +0.069 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.20 +0.096 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.33 +0.124 | |
| 2033 |
| Breadbasket failure | 16.30 −0.032 |
| 2034 |
| 16.46 +0.167 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.60 +0.139 | |
| 2036 |
| Core disaster | 16.29 −0.310 |
| 2037 |
| 16.37 +0.081 | |
| 2038 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 16.34 −0.037 |
| 2039 |
| 16.33 −0.008 | |
| 2040 |
| 16.32 −0.010 | |
| 2041 |
| 16.41 +0.098 | |
| 2042 |
| 16.54 +0.120 | |
| 2043 |
| 16.66 +0.124 | |
| 2044 |
| Automated discovery step | 16.97 +0.315 |
| 2045 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.92 −0.058 |
| 2046 |
| 17.27 +0.351 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.209 | −151.4 | −5.33 |
| No shocks | +0.525 | +40.5 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.021 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.024 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.020 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.023 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.148 | +10.6 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.156 | +11.9 | +0.50 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.223 | +15.5 | +0.50 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +7.20 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.06 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.84 | +4.34 | +4.95 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.17 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.95 | +3.95 | +3.05 | 0.00 | +0.47 | +0.44 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.85 | +3.85 | +3.14 | 0.00 | +0.56 | +0.14 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 19.43 | +3.76 | +4.42 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.03 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +3.62 | 0.00 | +0.34 | +0.01 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.11 | +3.61 | +4.64 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.21 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.48 | +3.48 | +3.52 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.40 | +3.40 | +3.67 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.44 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.53 | +3.33 | +4.49 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.09 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.24 | +2.91 | +4.88 | 0.00 | −2.13 | +0.16 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.90 | +2.90 | +2.76 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.20 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.69 | +2.69 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.20 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.90 | +2.40 | +4.17 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.13 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.58 | +2.33 | +3.37 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.11 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.56 | +2.31 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.06 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 17.60 | +2.27 | +2.41 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.27 | +2.27 | +2.83 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.25 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.26 | +2.26 | +3.27 | 0.00 | −1.52 | +0.52 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 18.61 | +2.11 | +1.30 | 0.00 | +0.60 | +0.21 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.42 | +2.09 | +3.20 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.04 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 18.25 | +2.05 | +1.45 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.34 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.80 | +2.05 | +2.93 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.05 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 13.72 | +1.97 | +2.94 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.18 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.49 | +1.89 | +1.77 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.15 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 18.50 | +1.79 | +1.35 | 0.00 | +0.28 | +0.16 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.25 | +1.75 | +2.45 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.02 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 17.48 | +1.73 | +2.79 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.07 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.83 | +1.63 | +2.12 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.12 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.34 | +1.54 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.07 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.39 | +1.39 | +2.89 | 0.00 | −1.52 | +0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.96 | +1.29 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.13 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 17.76 | +1.26 | +3.10 | 0.00 | −2.13 | +0.29 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.57 | +1.24 | +2.66 | 0.00 | −1.50 | +0.09 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 2.91 | +1.24 | +0.98 | 0.00 | +0.27 | −0.01 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.81 | +1.21 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.27 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.19 | +1.19 | +1.44 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.07 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 17.98 | +1.18 | +1.61 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.25 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 16.17 | +1.17 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 16.16 | +1.16 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 17.12 | +1.12 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.10 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 19.08 | +1.08 | +0.99 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.08 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 17.05 | +1.05 | +1.12 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.05 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.00 | +1.00 | +1.49 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.33 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 14.54 | +0.87 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.02 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.33 | +0.83 | +1.59 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.18 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 17.38 | +0.71 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.07 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 16.81 | +0.48 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.08 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.70 | +0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.47 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.85 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.29 | +0.06 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 17.83 | +0.33 | +2.83 | 0.00 | −2.42 | −0.07 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.28 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.48 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.54 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.10 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.18 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.21 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.83 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.20 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.64 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.18 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.45 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.06 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 16.34 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.12 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.12 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | −0.02 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 15.70 | −0.43 | +1.20 | 0.00 | −1.66 | +0.02 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.95 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.12 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.65 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.07 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 14.84 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.03 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.32 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.41 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 14.56 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.06 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.17 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.01 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.15 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.04 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.85 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.14 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 15.78 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.22 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.59 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.07 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.27 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | +0.27 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 15.36 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | +0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 14.67 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.01 |
Seed 109 of experiment mcts-m6.m6-kor-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.