Median simulation · mcts-m6.m6-kor-mcts-index

Simulation 104

South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 104: median simulation of the experiment's 20. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.75 in 2046; 65 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 104

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 109 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 110 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 17.75 (+1.75); From 16.00
Rank by index: 2; From 6
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 2 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	No actions		16.00 0.000
2028	No actions		16.00 0.000
2029	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 30 Build Digital & AI Competence 30 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 30 Build Advanced Education 30		16.04 +0.036
2030	Buy Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 30 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Build Digital & AI Competence 30 Build Advanced Education 30 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 30		16.11 +0.069
2031	Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 30 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 30 Build Foundational Education 30 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30		16.20 +0.090
2032	Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 30 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 30 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 30 Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 30 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 30	Automated discovery step	16.52 +0.317
2033	Buy Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 31 Build Economic Output & Productivity 31 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 31 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 31 Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 31		16.83 +0.318
2034	No actions		17.06 +0.226
2035	No actions		17.09 +0.033
2036	Build Artificial Intelligence 32 Partner Digital & Services Trade 32 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 32 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 32 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 32		17.19 +0.095
2037	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 33 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 33 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 33 Build Population Health 33 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 33		17.26 +0.076
2038	No actions		17.32 +0.059
2039	No actions	Breadbasket failure	17.20 −0.115
2040	Build Export Capability & Sophistication 33 Build Financial Infrastructure 33 Build Early Childhood Development 33 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 33 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 33		17.25 +0.050
2041	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 33 Build Labour & Employment 33 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 33 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 33 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 33		17.32 +0.069
2042	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 33 Buy Resource Infrastructure 33 Build Labour & Employment 33 Partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 33 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 33		17.41 +0.083
2043	Partner Global Value Chain Position 33 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 33 Buy Resource Infrastructure 33 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 33 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 33		17.55 +0.143
2044	Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 33 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 33 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 33 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 33 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 33		17.68 +0.127
2045	Partner Sensing, Timing & Navigation 33 Partner Space Technologies 33 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 33 Buy Energy Infrastructure 33 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 33		17.77 +0.095
2046	No actions	Trade bloc rupture	17.75 −0.019

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Human Capital	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	5	5	5	5	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.209	−151.4	−5.33
No shocks	+0.525	+40.5	+0.67
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.021	−1.4	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.017	−1.2	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.024	−1.5	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.020	−1.5	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.023	−1.4	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.148	+10.6	+0.33
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.156	+11.9	+0.50
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.223	+15.5	+0.50

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	19.97	+4.47	+7.20	−0.01	+0.41	+0.10
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	19.49	+4.16	+3.72	−0.01	+0.40	+0.05
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	18.52	+4.02	+4.10	−0.03	−0.27	+0.21
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	19.96	+3.96	+3.14	−0.01	+0.90	+0.45
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	19.89	+3.89	+3.52	−0.01	+0.40	+0.03
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	18.28	+3.78	+3.63	−0.03	−0.01	+0.19
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	18.62	+3.62	+3.06	−0.02	+0.28	+0.30
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	18.83	+3.50	+3.02	−0.02	+0.12	+0.39
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	15.10	+3.35	+2.87	−0.01	+0.31	+0.19
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	17.49	+3.29	+3.12	−0.02	−0.01	+0.20
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	18.02	+3.02	+2.53	−0.01	+0.40	+0.09
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	19.99	+2.99	+2.52	−0.01	+0.40	+0.29
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	19.98	+2.98	+3.42	−0.01	+0.40	+0.36
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	18.94	+2.94	+2.41	−0.01	+0.40	+0.14
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	18.58	+2.91	+2.81	−0.02	+0.01	+0.12
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	18.88	+2.88	+2.43	−0.02	+0.01	+0.46
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	18.28	+2.53	+2.46	−0.01	+0.01	+0.07
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	4.19	+2.52	+2.05	0.00	+0.47	0.00
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.42	+2.42	+1.97	−0.02	+0.13	+0.35
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	18.81	+2.31	+2.14	−0.01	−0.15	+0.33
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	18.21	+2.21	+1.03	−0.04	+0.88	+0.33
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	18.46	+2.13	+1.69	−0.02	+0.23	+0.24
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	18.30	+2.05	+1.64	−0.02	+0.23	+0.21
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.56	+1.96	+1.51	−0.04	+0.35	+0.14
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	16.86	+1.86	+1.27	−0.01	+0.40	+0.20
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	19.02	+1.77	+1.21	−0.01	+0.39	+0.18
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	17.76	+1.76	+1.39	−0.01	+0.28	+0.09
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	18.26	+1.76	+1.26	−0.02	+0.29	+0.22
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	16.42	+1.75	+1.14	−0.03	+0.35	+0.29
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.25	+1.75	+1.41	−0.02	+0.33	+0.02
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	17.53	+1.73	+1.16	−0.03	+0.36	+0.25
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	17.48	+1.73	+1.34	−0.02	+0.27	+0.13
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	18.69	+1.69	+1.21	−0.01	+0.28	+0.21
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	18.01	+1.68	+1.05	−0.02	+0.32	+0.33
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	18.32	+1.65	+1.20	−0.02	+0.28	+0.20
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	18.39	+1.59	+1.32	−0.02	+0.01	+0.28
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.57	+1.57	+1.20	−0.02	+0.14	+0.25
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	18.05	+1.55	+1.24	−0.02	+0.20	+0.12
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	16.98	+1.48	+1.42	−0.02	+0.01	+0.07
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	19.44	+1.44	0.00	−0.02	+0.80	+0.66
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	17.56	+1.43	+1.10	−0.02	+0.17	+0.17
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	18.70	+1.37	+1.13	−0.02	+0.14	+0.12
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	17.52	+1.32	0.00	−0.04	+0.80	+0.56
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	18.77	+1.27	+1.10	−0.02	+0.05	+0.15
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	17.95	+1.24	0.00	−0.04	+0.80	+0.47
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	17.54	+1.04	0.00	−0.04	+0.88	+0.20
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	18.46	+0.96	0.00	−0.04	+0.80	+0.20
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	18.90	+0.90	0.00	−0.03	+0.85	+0.08
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	17.21	+0.88	0.00	−0.01	+0.87	+0.01
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	17.40	+0.80	0.00	−0.04	+0.28	+0.56
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	19.15	+0.75	0.00	−0.02	+0.33	+0.44
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	17.75	+0.75	0.00	−0.02	+0.33	+0.44
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	14.98	+0.73	0.00	−0.03	+0.35	+0.41
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	18.73	+0.73	0.00	−0.02	+0.28	+0.47
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	17.11	+0.61	0.00	−0.01	+0.33	+0.30
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	17.27	+0.60	0.00	−0.01	+0.39	+0.22
Air Power	National Security	16.75	17.34	+0.59	0.00	−0.03	+0.39	+0.23
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	16.59	+0.59	0.00	−0.03	+0.39	+0.22
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	16.24	+0.57	0.00	−0.01	+0.31	+0.27
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	17.76	+0.56	0.00	−0.01	+0.32	+0.25
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	16.87	+0.54	0.00	−0.03	+0.39	+0.18
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	16.74	+0.54	0.00	−0.01	+0.39	+0.15
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	16.53	+0.53	0.00	−0.03	+0.39	+0.17
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	14.19	+0.52	0.00	−0.02	+0.39	+0.16
Land Power	National Security	16.50	17.01	+0.51	0.00	−0.03	+0.39	+0.14
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	16.48	+0.48	0.00	−0.03	+0.39	+0.12
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	16.30	+0.47	0.00	−0.03	+0.39	+0.11
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	15.80	+0.47	0.00	−0.03	+0.39	+0.11
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	17.13	+0.33	0.00	−0.01	+0.18	+0.16
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	15.97	+0.22	0.00	−0.01	+0.17	+0.06
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	16.80	+0.13	0.00	−0.01	+0.01	+0.13
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	17.12	+0.12	0.00	−0.01	+0.02	+0.11
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	16.28	−0.05	0.00	−0.01	−0.23	+0.19

Seed 104 of experiment mcts-m6.m6-kor-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.