E3 · cycle-001.e3-est-hold

Estonia, hold, 20 years

100 simulations of 20 rounds from the 2026 position. Estonia decides by the hold method; the shock and upside library, drawn at random each round.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–100 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2046, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 100 simulations under it.

Capability index: 10.59 (−0.90); From 11.49; 9.46 to 11.43
Rank by index: 42; From 33; 34 to 51
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 32; From 27; 27 to 54

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	2026	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	11.49	9.46	10.59	11.43	higher
Rank by index	33	34	42	51	lower
Tier rank	27	27	32	54	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	817.9	677.1	752.5	814.0	higher
Goal-weighted score	817.9	677.1	752.5	814.0	higher
Resilient score	817.9	743.5 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, nothing was spent on actions.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-001. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 100 simulations, seeds 1 to 100; probes on 20. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Estonia played 20 rounds from 2026 under the hold method, with stochastic events, 100 times. Its capability index moved from 11.49 to a median of 10.59 (−0.90), with 90 per cent of simulations between 9.13 and 11.49 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 2026 the nation ranks 33 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 27. Its base income is 347 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

No actions were taken: the method holds, so income pays maintenance and the rest is carried over.

What the world did

A median simulation saw 2 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S03 (33 firings in 31 simulations, −40.7 points each); S10 (3 firings in 3 simulations, −38.7 points each); S09 (9 firings in 9 simulations, −38.4 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 73 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Information Environment & Strategic Communication −1.78; Energy Infrastructure −1.67; Maritime Power −1.65; Economic Leverage & Dependence −1.58 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Artificial Intelligence (−0.33 points); Economic Output & Productivity to Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (−0.24 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.23 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2046 the median rank is 42 (5th to 95th percentile 33 to 55), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 32; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 743 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.402 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.402 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by 0.000: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.626 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 33) ends −2.90 from it, with 8 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

No backcast comparison: this experiment does not start from a historical position [experiment_against_history].

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 20 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	0.000	0.0	0.00
No shocks	+1.402	+100.1	+0.10
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.626	+45.3	+0.05	2039 S03 (-55.4 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.516	+36.6	0.00	2038 S03 (-36.3 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.443	+31.5	0.00	2033 S04 (-26.3 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 100 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 100 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Hybrid coercion S04	Shock	47 per cent	10.0	−37.3
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	31 per cent	10.6	−40.7
AI labour shock S08	Shock	29 per cent	10.3	−31.6
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	28 per cent	9.8	−18.4
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	26 per cent	10.3	−22.9
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	22 per cent	8.7	−30.9
Market access opening S12	Upside	18 per cent	9.1	+11.1
Water-efficient food leap S16	Upside	17 per cent	11.1	+3.7
Chronic disease advance S19	Upside	13 per cent	11.6	+14.1
Clean power threshold S15	Upside	10 per cent	11.3	+8.8
Cryptographic trust break S09	Shock	9 per cent	10.3	−38.4
Core disaster S07	Shock	8 per cent	7.9	−16.3
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	7 per cent	8.6	−17.5
Automated discovery step S17	Upside	4 per cent	13.6	+13.3
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	3 per cent	10.0	−38.7
Middle East settlement S14	Upside	3 per cent	5.0	+7.2
Debt service reset S11	Upside	2 per cent	8.5	+2.1
Outbreak defence succeeds S20	Upside	2 per cent	5.5	+23.4
Public service leap S18	Upside	1 per cent	15.0	+5.8

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	13.00	12.76 12.20 to 13.26	−0.24
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	12.67	12.41 11.74 to 12.88	−0.26
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.33	14.06 13.27 to 14.44	−0.27
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.33	14.06 13.25 to 14.43	−0.27
Foundational Education	Human Capital	16.50	16.20 15.54 to 16.62	−0.30
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	15.66 14.92 to 16.11	−0.34
Population Health	Human Capital	13.67	13.32 12.56 to 13.76	−0.35
Health System Capability	Human Capital	14.00	13.62 12.83 to 14.14	−0.38
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	16.11 15.37 to 16.60	−0.39
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	14.33	13.91 13.08 to 14.50	−0.42
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	15.86 15.25 to 16.33	−0.47
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.25	14.74 14.10 to 15.25	−0.51
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	14.99 14.33 to 15.50	−0.51
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	15.47 14.69 to 16.00	−0.53
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	14.67	13.98 12.83 to 14.67	−0.69
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	14.25	13.53 12.03 to 14.25	−0.72
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	12.00	11.25 9.69 to 12.07	−0.75
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	13.67	12.89 11.06 to 13.67	−0.78
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	7.40	6.62 5.43 to 7.44	−0.78
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.50	4.71 3.83 to 5.50	−0.79
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	9.80	9.01 7.70 to 9.80	−0.79
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.67	1.85 0.93 to 2.67	−0.82
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.80	10.98 9.61 to 11.80	−0.82
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.14	4.31 3.09 to 5.14	−0.83
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.25	7.42 6.43 to 8.25	−0.83
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	14.20	13.36 12.19 to 14.20	−0.84
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	13.33	12.48 11.39 to 13.31	−0.85
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.75	13.90 12.71 to 14.73	−0.85
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	14.50	13.65 12.41 to 14.50	−0.85
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	2.50	1.65 0.41 to 2.50	−0.85
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.25	12.39 11.21 to 13.19	−0.86
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.40	16.54 15.38 to 17.40	−0.86
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.67	4.81 3.57 to 5.67	−0.86
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.50	10.63 9.24 to 11.50	−0.87
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	12.50	11.63 10.42 to 12.50	−0.87
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	4.80	3.93 2.85 to 4.80	−0.87
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.60	3.73 2.77 to 4.60	−0.87
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.80	9.93 8.83 to 10.80	−0.87
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	11.50	10.62 9.59 to 11.37	−0.88
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	12.67	11.79 10.62 to 12.64	−0.88
Land Power	National Security	9.25	8.36 7.12 to 9.25	−0.89
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.91	12.99 11.72 to 13.91	−0.92
Air Power	National Security	4.50	3.58 2.40 to 4.50	−0.92
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	14.00	13.08 11.08 to 14.00	−0.92
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.75	5.82 4.23 to 6.75	−0.93
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.00	9.07 7.69 to 10.00	−0.93
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.00	11.06 9.45 to 12.00	−0.94
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.40	7.46 6.40 to 8.26	−0.94
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	10.00	9.00 7.51 to 9.96	−1.00
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.86	13.84 12.12 to 14.86	−1.02
Space Operations	National Security	4.00	2.97 1.60 to 3.99	−1.03
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.67	7.61 6.13 to 8.66	−1.06
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.50	6.44 5.31 to 7.35	−1.06
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.50	10.42 8.93 to 11.47	−1.08
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	13.75	12.66 10.85 to 13.73	−1.09
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.33	10.20 8.43 to 11.33	−1.13
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.33	7.19 5.43 to 8.33	−1.14
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	14.00	12.85 11.08 to 14.00	−1.15
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.00	4.83 3.31 to 5.99	−1.17
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.50	12.32 10.70 to 13.50	−1.18
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	13.00	11.80 10.27 to 12.92	−1.20
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.67	10.45 8.71 to 11.58	−1.22
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	10.00	8.73 7.22 to 9.72	−1.27
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.75	13.47 10.85 to 14.75	−1.28
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.00	11.72 9.38 to 13.00	−1.28
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	11.67	10.38 8.47 to 11.66	−1.29
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	12.00	10.71 8.85 to 12.00	−1.29
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.67	10.25 7.91 to 11.59	−1.42
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.88	7.46 5.34 to 8.88	−1.42
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	13.50	12.03 10.17 to 13.33	−1.47
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.00	10.50 8.37 to 11.88	−1.50
Maritime Power	National Security	6.00	4.47 2.31 to 6.00	−1.53

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 0.0e+00
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 18.129
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (20 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.9e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.27 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 2 tiers (0 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 33; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low4% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-001.e3-est-hold. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Estonia (EST)
Position: The 2026 ratings of the National Capability Index
Method: Hold. No actions. Income pays maintenance; whatever is left is carried over, losing 5 per cent a round.
Scenario: The shock and upside library, drawn at random each round
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 20 rounds, 2026 to 2046
Simulations: 100 seeds, 1 to 100. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 346.9 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Improvement cycle (cycle-001), cycle 1 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.8 seconds in all; 911 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.