Simulation 99
Estonia, hold, 20 years, seed 99: median simulation of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 10.59 in 2046; 0 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 99
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 11 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 28 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 10.59 (−0.89)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 42
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the hold method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | Hybrid coercionMarket access opening | 11.07 −0.415 |
| 2028 | No actions | 11.12 +0.048 | |
| 2029 | No actions | 11.16 +0.039 | |
| 2030 | No actions | 11.15 −0.009 | |
| 2031 | No actions | 11.14 −0.007 | |
| 2032 | No actions | 11.14 −0.007 | |
| 2033 | No actions | 11.14 0.000 | |
| 2034 | No actions | 11.14 0.000 | |
| 2035 | No actions | 11.14 0.000 | |
| 2036 | No actions | 11.14 0.000 | |
| 2037 | No actions | 11.13 0.000 | |
| 2038 | No actions | Hybrid coercion | 10.62 −0.515 |
| 2039 | No actions | 10.62 −0.003 | |
| 2040 | No actions | 10.60 −0.014 | |
| 2041 | No actions | 10.59 −0.013 | |
| 2042 | No actions | Water-efficient food leap | 10.58 −0.005 |
| 2043 | No actions | 10.58 −0.005 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 10.58 +0.003 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 10.59 +0.005 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 10.59 +0.005 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.402 | +100.1 | +0.10 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.626 | +45.3 | +0.05 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.516 | +36.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.443 | +31.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 13.41 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.43 | −0.02 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 14.56 | +0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +0.01 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 12.88 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | −0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 14.53 | +0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | −0.02 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.17 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | −0.05 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 13.82 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | −0.07 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.64 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | −0.08 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 14.13 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | −0.09 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 13.78 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.01 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 14.10 | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | −0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 12.08 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | −0.04 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 14.32 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | −0.04 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.56 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | −0.15 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.03 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 9.78 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | −0.13 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 14.66 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | −0.20 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 14.03 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.01 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 14.27 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.02 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 15.83 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.04 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 10.83 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.04 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 13.24 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 14.73 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.47 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.06 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 11.97 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.05 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 12.11 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.08 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 6.82 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.02 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 12.92 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.14 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 14.91 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.11 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 9.41 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.08 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 13.41 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.16 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 4.86 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.01 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 12.33 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.23 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 13.82 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.26 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 4.45 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.03 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 12.31 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.07 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 4.09 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.04 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 1.77 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.04 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 10.94 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.10 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 1.92 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.06 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 3.83 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.10 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 7.48 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.14 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 10.75 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.29 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.57 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.44 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 11.06 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.03 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 16.45 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.05 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 7.33 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.38 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 12.16 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.01 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 10.67 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.04 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 12.75 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.07 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 13.43 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.04 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 5.50 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.04 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 10.18 | −1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.22 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 9.46 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.02 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 4.33 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | −0.10 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 10.15 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | 0.00 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 12.80 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.18 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 6.99 | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | 0.00 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 11.90 | −1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | +0.04 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 6.04 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 8.53 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.09 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 8.49 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.35 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 6.95 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.14 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 7.48 | −1.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.20 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 2.64 | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.17 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 4.11 | −1.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | −0.23 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 1.99 | −2.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.31 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 12.45 | −2.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.37 | −0.04 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 6.41 | −2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.40 | −0.08 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 9.09 | −2.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.79 | −0.12 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 10.47 | −3.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.74 | −0.29 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 8.48 | −3.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.02 | −0.17 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 8.81 | −3.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.00 | −0.18 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 2.56 | −3.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.31 | −0.14 |
Seed 99 of experiment cycle-001.e3-est-hold. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.