Simulation 31
Brazil, random, 20 years, seed 31: median simulation of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 12.05 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 31
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 18 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 39 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.05 (+0.36)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 29
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the random method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.71 +0.017 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.74 +0.030 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.79 +0.049 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.83 +0.047 | |
| 2031 |
| Hybrid coercion | 11.65 −0.179 |
| 2032 |
| 11.69 +0.032 | |
| 2033 |
| 11.71 +0.030 | |
| 2034 |
| 11.75 +0.036 | |
| 2035 |
| 11.79 +0.033 | |
| 2036 |
| 11.83 +0.043 | |
| 2037 |
| 11.86 +0.035 | |
| 2038 |
| 11.89 +0.033 | |
| 2039 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 11.86 −0.038 |
| 2040 |
| Market access opening | 11.87 +0.016 |
| 2041 |
| 11.88 +0.007 | |
| 2042 |
| 11.96 +0.083 | |
| 2043 |
| 11.99 +0.024 | |
| 2044 |
| 12.03 +0.040 | |
| 2045 |
| 12.06 +0.039 | |
| 2046 |
| Regional war spilloverChronic disease advance | 12.05 −0.019 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.778 | −56.7 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +0.847 | +59.5 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.014 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.013 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.455 | +31.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.303 | +21.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.244 | +17.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 12.11 | +2.71 | +3.22 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.03 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 11.40 | +2.60 | +2.88 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.06 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 14.80 | +2.47 | +2.71 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.01 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 12.21 | +2.41 | +2.67 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.10 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 13.68 | +2.01 | +2.63 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.08 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 14.49 | +1.49 | +1.29 | 0.00 | +0.19 | 0.00 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 12.71 | +1.38 | +1.12 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.14 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 13.76 | +1.26 | +1.57 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.04 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 15.49 | +1.24 | +1.80 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.03 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 12.88 | +1.21 | +1.11 | 0.00 | +0.12 | −0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 12.39 | +1.14 | +1.03 | 0.00 | +0.12 | −0.02 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 13.22 | +1.02 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.02 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 11.63 | +0.96 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.60 | +0.93 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −0.69 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 13.42 | +0.92 | +0.63 | 0.00 | +0.31 | −0.01 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 14.54 | +0.87 | +1.08 | 0.00 | −0.21 | 0.00 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 12.37 | +0.87 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −0.30 | −0.01 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 10.15 | +0.82 | +1.20 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.01 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 12.81 | +0.81 | +1.94 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.01 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 13.40 | +0.80 | +1.12 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.20 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 10.79 | +0.79 | +1.36 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.02 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 12.27 | +0.77 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.06 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 13.42 | +0.75 | +0.88 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 16.74 | +0.74 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.14 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 11.35 | +0.68 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 9.99 | +0.66 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.21 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 12.65 | +0.65 | +0.99 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.05 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 11.06 | +0.63 | +1.12 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.13 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 14.69 | +0.49 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −0.01 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 14.06 | +0.46 | +1.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 14.25 | +0.45 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.11 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 8.67 | +0.42 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.07 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 13.80 | +0.42 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −0.25 | −0.01 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 9.71 | +0.38 | +0.62 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.12 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.38 | +0.38 | +0.58 | 0.00 | −0.77 | 0.00 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 13.35 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.23 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 14.31 | +0.31 | +0.81 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.08 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 12.28 | +0.28 | +0.37 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.05 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 11.75 | +0.25 | +0.40 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 6.42 | +0.17 | +0.41 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.14 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 12.16 | +0.16 | +0.40 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.07 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 13.12 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 10.58 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | −0.04 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.32 | +0.07 | +0.29 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.12 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 14.05 | +0.05 | +0.17 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 13.20 | −0.05 | +0.16 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 12.42 | −0.08 | +0.14 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.03 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 11.58 | −0.09 | +0.20 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.04 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 12.08 | −0.12 | +0.29 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.02 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 13.07 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.86 | −0.14 | +0.42 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.07 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 10.65 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.08 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 10.85 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.17 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 5.09 | −0.24 | +0.40 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.02 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 10.72 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.05 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 10.70 | −0.30 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.03 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 11.70 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.05 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 12.39 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | −0.02 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 10.32 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | 0.00 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.39 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 13.88 | −0.37 | +0.36 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.06 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 10.94 | −0.39 | +0.36 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.11 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 13.90 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.02 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 13.99 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.04 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 10.97 | −0.53 | +0.18 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.04 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.45 | −0.55 | +0.12 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.04 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 9.42 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | 0.00 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 6.73 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.08 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 12.82 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.05 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 12.05 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.01 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 5.62 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.10 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 10.61 | −0.72 | +0.16 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.07 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 11.23 | −0.77 | +0.20 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.04 |
Seed 31 of experiment cycle-001.e3-bra-random. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.