Simulation 18
Brazil, random, 20 years, seed 18: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 11.11 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 18
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 31 (median simulation), 39 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 11.11 (−0.58)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 35
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the random method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.70 +0.012 | |
| 2028 |
| Middle East settlement | 11.79 +0.085 |
| 2029 |
| 11.85 +0.065 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.92 +0.064 | |
| 2031 |
| Hybrid coercion | 11.69 −0.228 |
| 2032 |
| 11.70 +0.014 | |
| 2033 |
| 11.72 +0.023 | |
| 2034 |
| 11.76 +0.031 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureBreadbasket failure | 11.36 −0.394 |
| 2036 |
| 11.38 +0.014 | |
| 2037 |
| Cryptographic trust break | 10.94 −0.441 |
| 2038 |
| 10.97 +0.031 | |
| 2039 |
| 11.01 +0.039 | |
| 2040 |
| Regional war spillover | 10.89 −0.114 |
| 2041 |
| 10.91 +0.017 | |
| 2042 |
| 10.94 +0.034 | |
| 2043 |
| 10.97 +0.024 | |
| 2044 |
| 11.02 +0.054 | |
| 2045 |
| 11.09 +0.065 | |
| 2046 |
| 11.11 +0.026 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.778 | −56.7 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +0.847 | +59.5 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.014 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.013 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.455 | +31.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.303 | +21.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.244 | +17.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 11.97 | +2.57 | +4.50 | 0.00 | −1.91 | −0.02 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 13.48 | +1.98 | +3.08 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.14 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 13.52 | +1.52 | +2.35 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.05 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 12.86 | +1.19 | +2.17 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.06 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 13.65 | +1.15 | +1.38 | 0.00 | −0.23 | 0.00 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 13.29 | +1.09 | +2.37 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.16 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 12.69 | +1.02 | +1.31 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.06 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 9.11 | +0.86 | +2.03 | 0.00 | −1.13 | −0.04 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 10.58 | +0.78 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.04 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 10.08 | +0.75 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −1.13 | −0.16 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 12.03 | +0.70 | +0.92 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.08 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 11.78 | +0.53 | +0.87 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.12 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 11.51 | +0.51 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.12 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 11.73 | +0.40 | +1.90 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.19 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 14.76 | +0.26 | +1.36 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.23 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 10.74 | +0.07 | +0.26 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 13.70 | +0.03 | +1.76 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.03 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 10.52 | +0.02 | +0.37 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.13 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 8.81 | +0.01 | +1.20 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.12 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.35 | 0.00 | −1.91 | −0.04 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.91 | −0.09 | +0.23 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.03 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 11.85 | −0.15 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −1.41 | −0.22 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 12.44 | −0.16 | +0.90 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 11.34 | −0.16 | +1.13 | 0.00 | −1.23 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 10.24 | −0.19 | +0.88 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.02 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.75 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −0.03 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 13.11 | −0.32 | +1.36 | 0.00 | −1.60 | −0.08 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.63 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −0.15 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 13.61 | −0.39 | +0.63 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.06 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 13.84 | −0.41 | +0.76 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.11 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 4.87 | −0.46 | +0.82 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.04 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 9.51 | −0.49 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −1.49 | 0.00 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 11.29 | −0.71 | +0.19 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.11 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 6.61 | −0.72 | +1.14 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.15 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.76 | −0.74 | +0.28 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.12 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.48 | −0.77 | +0.16 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.14 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 9.84 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 8.48 | −0.85 | +1.85 | 0.00 | −2.70 | −0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 11.64 | −0.86 | +0.47 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.33 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 10.81 | −0.86 | +0.21 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.02 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 11.80 | −0.87 | +0.18 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.07 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 11.30 | −0.90 | +0.37 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.20 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 10.06 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 5.31 | −0.94 | +0.26 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.01 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 11.79 | −0.94 | +0.49 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.31 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 8.38 | −0.95 | +0.23 | 0.00 | −1.13 | −0.05 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 12.28 | −0.97 | +0.33 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.11 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 12.81 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 13.13 | −1.07 | +0.16 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.05 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 14.93 | −1.07 | +0.15 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.13 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 10.55 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.03 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 10.86 | −1.14 | +0.61 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.17 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.54 | −1.21 | +0.29 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.30 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 12.16 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.16 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 9.43 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.01 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 11.91 | −1.29 | +0.35 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.10 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 12.27 | −1.33 | +0.20 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.06 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 10.97 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.04 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 9.44 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.10 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 8.53 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.54 | +0.07 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 11.19 | −1.48 | +0.69 | 0.00 | −1.97 | −0.20 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 12.51 | −1.49 | +0.14 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.12 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 10.49 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.10 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 10.91 | −1.59 | +0.18 | 0.00 | −1.91 | +0.14 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 12.65 | −1.60 | +0.42 | 0.00 | −2.04 | +0.02 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 9.84 | −1.66 | +0.21 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.11 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 10.26 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.15 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 12.57 | −1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.07 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 4.55 | −1.78 | +0.24 | 0.00 | −1.93 | −0.10 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 9.48 | −1.85 | +1.16 | 0.00 | −2.90 | −0.11 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 10.00 | −2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.17 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 9.70 | −2.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.13 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 8.52 | −2.48 | +0.26 | 0.00 | −2.57 | −0.17 |
Seed 18 of experiment cycle-001.e3-bra-random. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.