E3 · cycle-001.e3-est-random

Estonia, random, 20 years

100 simulations of 20 rounds from the 2026 position. Estonia decides by the random method; the shock and upside library, drawn at random each round.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–100 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2046, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 100 simulations under it.

Capability index: 11.32 (−0.17); From 11.49; 10.12 to 12.18
Rank by index: 34; From 33; 27 to 45
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 1
Tier rank: 22; From 27; 19 to 32

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	2026	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	11.49	10.12	11.32	12.18	higher
Rank by index	33	27	34	45	lower
Tier rank	27	19	22	32	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	1	higher
Score sum	817.9	725.4	808.4	868.1	higher
Goal-weighted score	817.9	725.4	808.4	868.1	higher
Resilient score	817.9	799.1 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 36 per cent, buy took 27 per cent, partner took 37 per cent of the 901 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-001. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 100 simulations, seeds 1 to 100; probes on 20. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Estonia played 20 rounds from 2026 under the random method, with stochastic events, 100 times. Its capability index moved from 11.49 to a median of 11.32 (−0.17), with 90 per cent of simulations between 9.85 and 12.27 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 2026 the nation ranks 33 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 27. Its base income is 347 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 906 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Space Operations (partner, 14 credits, 0.6 per cent); Labour & Employment (build, 14 credits, 0.6 per cent); Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power (build, 14 credits, 0.6 per cent); Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment (build, 14 credits, 0.7 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (partner, 14 credits, 0.5 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 36 per cent, partner 36 per cent, buy 27 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.027, and the most repeated action appeared in 15 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, National Security; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Critical Technology; rounds 16 to 20, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 2 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S03 (33 firings in 31 simulations, −39.9 points each); S10 (3 firings in 3 simulations, −38.0 points each); S09 (9 firings in 9 simulations, −37.6 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 75 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Information Environment & Strategic Communication −1.75; Energy Infrastructure −1.64; Maritime Power −1.62; Economic Leverage & Dependence −1.54 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Artificial Intelligence (−0.04 points); Economic Output & Productivity to Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (−0.05 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.16 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2046 the median rank is 34 (5th to 95th percentile 27 to 48), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 1) and the median tier rank 22; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 799 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.408 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.408 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.751: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.018 and −0.012, for example 2039 build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (17 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.632 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 3 tiers (4 simulations above 2).

retired_words (warn): e3-est-random/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 33) ends −2.95 from it, with 8 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

Against the hold experiment for the same nation (e3-est-hold), the median index is +0.73 points apart, the median rank 34 against 42, and Tier 1 domains 0 against 0 [experiment_against_hold].

No backcast comparison: this experiment does not start from a historical position [experiment_against_history].

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 20 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.751	−55.1	−0.10
No shocks	+1.408	+100.7	+0.30
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.013	−1.0	0.00	2039 build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (17 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.012	−1.0	0.00	2039 buy Digital & Services Trade (17 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.016	−1.2	0.00	2037 build Maritime Power (17 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.014	−1.1	0.00	2037 partner Internal Security & Order (17 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.018	−1.3	0.00	2037 build Force Generation & Mobilisation (17 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.632	+45.8	0.00	2039 S03 (-53.1 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.518	+37.0	0.00	2038 S03 (-34.9 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.439	+31.0	0.00	2033 S04 (-26.0 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 100 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 100 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Hybrid coercion S04	Shock	47 per cent	10.0	−36.5
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	31 per cent	10.6	−39.9
AI labour shock S08	Shock	29 per cent	10.3	−30.8
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	28 per cent	9.8	−18.1
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	26 per cent	10.3	−22.6
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	22 per cent	8.7	−30.5
Market access opening S12	Upside	18 per cent	9.1	+11.4
Water-efficient food leap S16	Upside	17 per cent	11.1	+3.9
Chronic disease advance S19	Upside	13 per cent	11.6	+14.9
Clean power threshold S15	Upside	11 per cent	11.2	+9.6
Cryptographic trust break S09	Shock	9 per cent	10.3	−37.6
Core disaster S07	Shock	8 per cent	7.9	−16.1
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	7 per cent	8.6	−17.4
Automated discovery step S17	Upside	4 per cent	13.6	+14.3
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	3 per cent	10.0	−38.0
Middle East settlement S14	Upside	3 per cent	5.0	+7.3
Public service leap S18	Upside	2 per cent	11.5	+7.2
Debt service reset S11	Upside	2 per cent	8.5	+2.2
Outbreak defence succeeds S20	Upside	2 per cent	5.5	+23.6

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	13.00	13.66 12.65 to 15.02	+0.66	0.92	15
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.33	14.73 13.71 to 15.88	+0.40	0.79	15
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	4.80	5.01 3.47 to 6.93	+0.21	1.34	16
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	16.69 15.63 to 17.89	+0.19	0.61	13
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	12.67	12.86 12.19 to 13.85	+0.19	0.60	12
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.33	14.48 13.90 to 15.28	+0.15	0.59	14
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.14	5.26 4.13 to 7.09	+0.12	1.20	15
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.33	8.45 6.59 to 10.30	+0.12	1.06	14
Health System Capability	Human Capital	14.00	14.12 13.13 to 15.07	+0.12	0.49	13
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.25	8.33 7.17 to 9.86	+0.08	0.88	14
Population Health	Human Capital	13.67	13.75 12.91 to 14.53	+0.08	0.39	10
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	7.40	7.47 6.20 to 8.94	+0.07	0.92	13
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.60	4.66 3.59 to 6.31	+0.06	0.95	12
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.50	5.55 4.57 to 6.96	+0.05	0.89	15
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.75	6.77 4.91 to 8.16	+0.02	0.97	16
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.40	8.42 6.76 to 9.90	+0.02	1.02	14
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	16.01 15.24 to 16.86	+0.01	0.33	9
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.01 0.00 to 0.64	+0.01	0.28	10
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	9.80	9.80 8.40 to 11.09	0.00	0.79	14
Foundational Education	Human Capital	16.50	16.48 15.74 to 17.18	−0.02	0.30	8
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.50	7.48 5.84 to 9.50	−0.02	1.18	13
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	14.50	14.44 13.30 to 15.93	−0.06	0.82	13
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	14.33	14.26 13.19 to 15.19	−0.07	0.41	11
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.80	10.70 9.37 to 12.65	−0.10	1.01	14
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.67	2.56 1.47 to 3.79	−0.11	0.74	11
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.33	11.20 9.24 to 12.88	−0.13	1.11	17
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	12.50	12.36 11.32 to 13.49	−0.14	0.67	14
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.67	5.52 4.12 to 7.08	−0.15	0.83	14
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	2.50	2.34 1.00 to 3.87	−0.16	0.85	12
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.00	9.84 8.42 to 11.13	−0.16	0.63	13
Space Operations	National Security	4.00	3.83 2.35 to 5.22	−0.17	0.82	14
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	12.67	12.49 10.91 to 13.79	−0.18	0.62	13
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	14.25	14.05 12.56 to 15.04	−0.20	0.55	14
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.80	11.60 10.10 to 12.71	−0.20	0.67	16
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	16.09 15.37 to 16.55	−0.24	0.20	7
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.25	13.00 11.62 to 14.04	−0.25	0.63	11
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	12.00	11.75 10.12 to 12.93	−0.25	0.54	12
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	10.00	9.75 8.28 to 11.19	−0.25	0.84	14
Land Power	National Security	9.25	8.99 7.68 to 10.16	−0.26	0.66	14
Air Power	National Security	4.50	4.24 2.84 to 5.41	−0.26	0.70	12
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.25	14.99 14.29 to 15.62	−0.26	0.26	9
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	13.67	13.41 12.01 to 14.65	−0.26	0.61	15
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	15.23 14.55 to 16.07	−0.27	0.29	9
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	14.67	14.38 13.45 to 15.31	−0.29	0.47	12
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.67	11.38 9.39 to 13.40	−0.29	0.97	14
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	11.67	11.37 9.15 to 12.47	−0.30	0.71	15
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.75	14.45 12.98 to 15.56	−0.30	0.51	12
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	13.00	12.70 10.83 to 14.10	−0.30	0.87	15
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.00	5.66 4.00 to 7.42	−0.34	0.83	15
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.50	11.13 9.75 to 12.44	−0.37	0.53	12
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	10.00	9.63 7.89 to 11.08	−0.37	0.79	12
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	15.61 14.89 to 16.46	−0.39	0.24	8
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.50	13.10 11.16 to 14.53	−0.40	0.69	9
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.88	8.47 5.88 to 9.81	−0.41	0.75	15
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.50	11.08 9.41 to 12.32	−0.42	0.57	11
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	14.00	13.58 11.88 to 14.98	−0.42	0.70	12
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.67	8.24 6.81 to 9.40	−0.43	0.66	14
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.67	11.22 8.76 to 12.79	−0.45	0.86	13
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.86	14.40 12.55 to 15.76	−0.46	0.63	14
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.00	11.53 9.84 to 12.84	−0.47	0.48	11
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	14.00	13.53 11.69 to 14.75	−0.47	0.43	10
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	13.33	12.82 11.84 to 13.75	−0.51	0.47	14
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	12.00	11.49 9.59 to 12.90	−0.51	0.65	14
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	11.50	10.99 9.75 to 12.02	−0.51	0.40	8
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	14.20	13.67 12.34 to 14.70	−0.53	0.30	9
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	13.75	13.22 11.48 to 14.44	−0.53	0.47	10
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.91	13.33 11.93 to 14.33	−0.58	0.29	8
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.00	12.42 10.26 to 13.88	−0.58	0.73	12
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.40	16.79 15.57 to 17.85	−0.61	0.24	10
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.00	11.27 9.50 to 12.77	−0.73	0.78	12
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	13.50	12.75 11.05 to 14.27	−0.75	0.59	9
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.75	13.96 11.41 to 15.40	−0.79	0.25	8
Maritime Power	National Security	6.00	5.20 3.06 to 7.10	−0.80	0.74	13

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.3e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 18.553
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (20 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 2.50 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 3 tiers (4 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 33; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low1% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.027; most funded group hard.critical_technology.quantum_technologies
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 15% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-001.e3-est-random. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Estonia (EST)
Position: The 2026 ratings of the National Capability Index
Method: Random. Five actions a round, each a random open group and mode and a random chunk of income.
Scenario: The shock and upside library, drawn at random each round
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 20 rounds, 2026 to 2046
Simulations: 100 seeds, 1 to 100. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 346.9 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Improvement cycle (cycle-001), cycle 1 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 8.0 seconds in all; 1234 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.