A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-001.e3-est-random

Simulation 11

Estonia, random, 20 years, seed 11: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 10.12 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 11

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 22 (median simulation), 80 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 10.12 (−1.36); From 11.49
Rank by index: 45; From 33
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 5 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the random method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 Build Nuclear Deterrence 7 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 17 Build Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 17	Core disaster	11.27 −0.218
2028	Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Partner Early Childhood Development 7 Partner Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 4 Buy Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7		11.29 +0.023
2029	Build Export Capability & Sophistication 3 Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 3 Buy Investment Attraction & Projection 7 Buy Space Operations 3 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 7		11.32 +0.030
2030	Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 3 Partner Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 3 Partner Artificial Intelligence 3 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 7	Trade bloc rupture	11.22 −0.104
2031	Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 7 Buy Artificial Intelligence 3 Buy Intelligence & Assessment 7 Buy Advanced Education 17 Buy Financial Stability & Crisis Management 3		11.12 −0.095
2032	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 6 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 6 Build Digital & Services Trade 3 Partner Digital & AI Competence 3 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 15		11.02 −0.103
2033	Partner Nuclear Deterrence 3 Partner Technical & Vocational Skills 3 Partner Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3		11.03 +0.012
2034	Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 3 Buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies 16 Partner Digital & AI Competence 16 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 3 Partner Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 7		11.05 +0.019
2035	Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 16 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 3 Buy Resource Infrastructure 7 Build Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 3 Buy Space Operations 3	Regional war spillover	10.58 −0.473
2036	Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 7 Partner Energy Infrastructure 16 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 7 Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3		10.59 +0.011
2037	Buy Digital & Services Trade 15 Buy Economic Leverage & Dependence 6 Build Financial Infrastructure 15 Partner Global Value Chain Position 6 Build Population Health 3		10.61 +0.020
2038	Buy Space Technologies 3 Buy Quantum Technologies 3 Partner Space Technologies 3 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 15 Build Labour & Employment 6		10.64 +0.030
2039	Partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 3 Build Digital & Services Trade 15 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 6 Buy Advanced Education 6 Partner Advanced Manufacturing 3		10.65 +0.010
2040	Buy Transport Infrastructure 15 Build Foundational Education 6 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 15 Build Population Health 15 Buy Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 15		10.68 +0.031
2041	Buy Investment Attraction & Projection 6 Build Labour & Employment 15 Partner Resource Infrastructure 6 Buy Space Technologies 3 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 3	Hybrid coercion	10.30 −0.376
2042	Build Artificial Intelligence 6 Partner Digital & AI Competence 3 Partner Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 15 Buy Advanced Education 6 Partner Economic Output & Productivity 3	Breadbasket failure	10.01 −0.296
2043	Partner Financial System Depth & Access 15 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 6 Buy Intelligence & Assessment 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 3 Buy Advanced Education 15		10.03 +0.024
2044	Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 3 Build Digital & AI Competence 3 Buy Economic Output & Productivity 14 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 3 Buy Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 14		10.07 +0.034
2045	Partner Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 14 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 6 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14 Partner Internal Security & Order 6 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 6		10.09 +0.023
2046	Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 6 Buy Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 6 Buy Internal Security & Order 15 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 6		10.12 +0.035

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Strategic Infrastructure	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6
National Security	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	2	2	2
Information & Influence	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	6
Governance & Integrity	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
Financial Strength	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	11	11
Production & Innovation	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Trade & Investment	6	8	8	7	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	8	8	8	7	7	8	8	8	8	8

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−0.751	−55.1	−0.10
No shocks	+1.408	+100.7	+0.30
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.013	−1.0	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.012	−1.0	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.016	−1.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.014	−1.1	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.018	−1.3	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.632	+45.8	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.518	+37.0	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.439	+31.0	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.40	9.57	+1.17	+2.81	−1.65	+0.01
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.33	15.01	+0.68	+1.51	−0.68	−0.14
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.33	14.74	+0.41	+1.14	−0.68	−0.06
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	16.79	+0.29	+1.15	−0.65	−0.20
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.14	5.22	+0.08	+1.71	−1.56	−0.07
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	2.50	2.50	0.00	+1.78	−1.74	−0.03
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.25	−2.07	−0.04
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	7.40	7.26	−0.14	+1.51	−1.59	−0.06
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.33	8.04	−0.29	+0.95	−1.15	−0.09
Population Health	Human Capital	13.67	13.33	−0.34	+0.83	−0.89	−0.28
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	9.80	9.43	−0.37	+1.48	−1.61	−0.24
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.75	14.37	−0.38	+1.47	−1.66	−0.20
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	14.00	13.59	−0.41	+1.77	−2.04	−0.14
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	12.67	12.20	−0.47	+0.29	−0.69	−0.07
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	15.47	−0.53	+0.51	−0.99	−0.06
Foundational Education	Human Capital	16.50	15.93	−0.57	+0.30	−0.65	−0.22
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.67	2.08	−0.59	+0.75	−1.26	−0.08
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.25	7.61	−0.64	+0.61	−1.13	−0.11
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	13.00	12.36	−0.64	+0.18	−0.69	−0.12
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	14.67	13.98	−0.69	+0.85	−1.49	−0.05
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	10.00	9.27	−0.73	+1.23	−1.80	−0.16
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.00	11.19	−0.81	+1.59	−2.32	−0.07
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	13.75	12.92	−0.83	+0.99	−1.71	−0.11
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	15.08	−0.92	+0.25	−0.87	−0.31
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.60	3.65	−0.95	+0.37	−1.18	−0.14
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.25	14.29	−0.96	+0.09	−1.02	−0.02
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	12.00	11.02	−0.98	+0.88	−1.82	−0.04
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.25	12.25	−1.00	+0.92	−1.72	−0.19
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	15.32	−1.01	0.00	−0.99	−0.02
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.50	4.44	−1.06	+0.19	−1.19	−0.06
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.67	4.57	−1.10	+1.04	−1.95	−0.18
Health System Capability	Human Capital	14.00	12.90	−1.10	0.00	−0.86	−0.23
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.33	10.22	−1.11	+1.15	−2.15	−0.12
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	14.35	−1.15	0.00	−1.01	−0.14
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	13.33	12.11	−1.22	+0.67	−1.61	−0.28
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	14.33	13.09	−1.24	0.00	−1.22	−0.02
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	14.25	12.94	−1.31	+0.30	−1.48	−0.13
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	10.00	8.60	−1.40	+1.22	−2.48	−0.14
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.80	9.38	−1.42	0.00	−1.38	−0.04
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	13.67	12.20	−1.47	+0.11	−1.49	−0.09
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.67	7.17	−1.50	+1.06	−2.34	−0.23
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	12.50	10.97	−1.53	+0.34	−1.76	−0.11
Space Operations	National Security	4.00	2.41	−1.59	+0.54	−1.97	−0.17
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.75	5.08	−1.67	+0.84	−2.45	−0.06
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	11.50	9.79	−1.71	0.00	−1.71	0.00
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.50	5.77	−1.73	+0.19	−1.79	−0.13
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	11.67	9.84	−1.83	+0.57	−2.32	−0.08
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.00	10.14	−1.86	+0.95	−2.54	−0.27
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.40	15.52	−1.88	0.00	−1.77	−0.11
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	4.80	2.92	−1.88	0.00	−1.82	−0.06
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	14.50	12.59	−1.91	0.00	−1.70	−0.20
Land Power	National Security	9.25	7.33	−1.92	0.00	−1.75	−0.17
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	14.20	12.25	−1.95	0.00	−1.74	−0.21
Air Power	National Security	4.50	2.49	−2.01	0.00	−1.88	−0.13
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	12.67	10.66	−2.01	0.00	−1.74	−0.27
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.00	7.92	−2.08	+0.17	−1.83	−0.42
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	14.00	11.88	−2.12	+0.26	−2.15	−0.23
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.67	9.39	−2.28	+0.65	−2.50	−0.43
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	13.00	10.68	−2.32	+0.53	−2.50	−0.35
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.50	9.16	−2.34	+0.13	−2.10	−0.37
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.00	3.66	−2.34	+0.28	−2.45	−0.17
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.86	12.49	−2.37	0.00	−2.25	−0.12
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	13.50	11.06	−2.44	0.00	−2.25	−0.19
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	12.00	9.53	−2.47	0.00	−2.29	−0.18
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.91	11.32	−2.59	0.00	−2.00	−0.59
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.88	6.29	−2.59	+1.12	−3.57	−0.14
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.50	10.83	−2.67	0.00	−2.48	−0.18
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.80	9.12	−2.68	0.00	−2.37	−0.32
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.75	11.97	−2.78	0.00	−2.58	−0.20
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.50	8.66	−2.84	0.00	−2.40	−0.44
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.67	8.65	−3.02	+0.39	−3.17	−0.24
Maritime Power	National Security	6.00	2.78	−3.22	0.00	−3.12	−0.10
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.00	9.71	−3.29	+0.55	−3.43	−0.41

Seed 11 of experiment cycle-001.e3-est-random. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.