Simulation 80
Estonia, random, 20 years, seed 80: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 12.18 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 80
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 22 (median simulation), 11 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.18 (+0.69)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 27
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 1 shock
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the random method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.50 +0.011 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.53 +0.027 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.57 +0.048 | |
| 2030 |
| Hybrid coercionChronic disease advance | 11.29 −0.289 |
| 2031 |
| 11.35 +0.062 | |
| 2032 |
| 11.45 +0.102 | |
| 2033 |
| 11.52 +0.069 | |
| 2034 |
| 11.60 +0.083 | |
| 2035 |
| 11.64 +0.036 | |
| 2036 |
| 11.67 +0.037 | |
| 2037 |
| 11.73 +0.054 | |
| 2038 |
| 11.79 +0.065 | |
| 2039 |
| 11.84 +0.048 | |
| 2040 |
| 11.87 +0.034 | |
| 2041 |
| 11.93 +0.059 | |
| 2042 |
| 11.98 +0.045 | |
| 2043 |
| 12.03 +0.054 | |
| 2044 |
| 12.07 +0.041 | |
| 2045 |
| 12.13 +0.054 | |
| 2046 |
| 12.18 +0.054 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.751 | −55.1 | −0.10 |
| No shocks | +1.408 | +100.7 | +0.30 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.012 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.014 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.632 | +45.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.518 | +37.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.439 | +31.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 13.57 | +2.24 | +2.43 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 13.90 | +2.23 | +2.25 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.17 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 13.83 | +2.03 | +2.37 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.05 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 15.51 | +2.01 | +2.84 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.13 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 16.44 | +1.94 | +1.95 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.14 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 8.63 | +1.88 | +2.20 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.11 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 15.52 | +1.85 | +1.58 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.04 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 7.84 | +1.84 | +3.11 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.03 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 9.87 | +1.62 | +1.54 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.13 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 6.20 | +1.60 | +1.57 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.09 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 15.82 | +1.49 | +1.25 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.01 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 6.28 | +1.48 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.04 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 14.12 | +1.45 | +1.14 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.08 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 6.94 | +1.44 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.08 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 12.24 | +1.44 | +1.71 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.04 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 12.91 | +1.41 | +1.60 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.03 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 17.87 | +1.37 | +1.15 | 0.00 | +0.23 | −0.01 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 13.83 | +1.33 | +1.21 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.26 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 15.56 | +1.31 | +1.05 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.03 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 14.30 | +1.30 | +1.04 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.02 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 11.30 | +1.30 | +1.77 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.03 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 13.79 | +1.12 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.09 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 9.34 | +1.01 | +0.79 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.27 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 13.98 | +0.98 | +1.18 | 0.00 | −0.20 | 0.00 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 12.47 | +0.97 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.01 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 15.66 | +0.80 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.09 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 6.80 | +0.80 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.11 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 12.77 | +0.77 | +1.72 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.01 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 14.76 | +0.76 | +0.97 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 14.44 | +0.69 | +0.82 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 5.73 | +0.59 | +0.59 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.07 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 15.24 | +0.57 | +0.87 | 0.00 | −0.30 | 0.00 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 14.51 | +0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.47 | +0.04 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 2.99 | +0.49 | +0.55 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 15.23 | +0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.47 | +0.01 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 3.15 | +0.48 | +0.56 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 10.43 | +0.43 | +0.76 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.07 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 17.82 | +0.42 | +0.40 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.05 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 14.09 | +0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.18 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 12.42 | +0.42 | +0.18 | 0.00 | +0.23 | 0.00 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 6.08 | +0.41 | +0.79 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.05 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 4.41 | +0.41 | +0.99 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.06 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.41 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.17 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 10.20 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.17 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 15.11 | +0.36 | +0.46 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 16.35 | +0.35 | +0.34 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 13.82 | +0.32 | +0.36 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.16 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 7.69 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.10 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.79 | +0.29 | +0.32 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 14.29 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.06 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 14.61 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.05 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.76 | +0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.02 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 11.93 | +0.26 | +0.30 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.16 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 8.64 | +0.24 | +0.67 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.03 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 14.54 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 11.68 | +0.18 | +0.33 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.24 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 13.35 | +0.10 | +0.42 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.06 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 12.07 | +0.07 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.10 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 16.34 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.01 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | 0.00 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 15.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.03 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 8.85 | −0.03 | +0.86 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.03 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 9.95 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.10 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 13.75 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.09 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 8.51 | −0.16 | +0.45 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.02 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 12.78 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 4.23 | −0.27 | +0.34 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.02 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 13.92 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.02 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 11.65 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.04 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 8.89 | −0.36 | +0.27 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.04 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 7.05 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.01 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 12.82 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.04 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 11.02 | −0.65 | +0.37 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.11 |
Seed 80 of experiment cycle-001.e3-est-random. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.