Simulation 22
Estonia, random, 20 years, seed 22: median simulation of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 11.33 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 22
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 11 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 80 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 11.33 (−0.15)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 34
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the random method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Breadbasket failure | 11.18 −0.312 |
| 2028 |
| 11.19 +0.018 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.23 +0.037 | |
| 2030 |
| Market access opening | 11.31 +0.083 |
| 2031 |
| 11.42 +0.107 | |
| 2032 |
| 11.49 +0.072 | |
| 2033 |
| 11.53 +0.037 | |
| 2034 |
| 11.58 +0.051 | |
| 2035 |
| 11.62 +0.034 | |
| 2036 |
| Hybrid coercion | 11.24 −0.374 |
| 2037 |
| 11.29 +0.044 | |
| 2038 |
| 11.31 +0.021 | |
| 2039 |
| 11.33 +0.028 | |
| 2040 |
| 11.37 +0.032 | |
| 2041 |
| 11.41 +0.047 | |
| 2042 |
| Core disaster | 11.23 −0.186 |
| 2043 |
| 11.26 +0.038 | |
| 2044 |
| 11.28 +0.013 | |
| 2045 |
| 11.31 +0.036 | |
| 2046 |
| 11.33 +0.020 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.751 | −55.1 | −0.10 |
| No shocks | +1.408 | +100.7 | +0.30 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.012 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.014 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.632 | +45.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.518 | +37.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.439 | +31.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 7.57 | +2.77 | +3.54 | 0.00 | −0.77 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 15.12 | +2.12 | +2.11 | 0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 11.71 | +1.91 | +2.43 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.05 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 12.63 | +1.83 | +2.56 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.01 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 17.76 | +1.76 | +2.18 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.03 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 15.98 | +1.65 | +1.87 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 6.48 | +1.34 | +1.76 | 0.00 | −0.42 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 15.41 | +1.08 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 14.85 | +0.85 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.09 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 3.33 | +0.83 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 15.04 | +0.79 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.03 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 17.28 | +0.78 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.06 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 7.42 | +0.67 | +1.72 | 0.00 | −1.05 | 0.00 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.20 | +0.53 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.12 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 13.19 | +0.52 | +0.74 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.18 | +0.51 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.07 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 14.12 | +0.45 | +0.91 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.04 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 13.76 | +0.43 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.04 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 6.05 | +0.38 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.04 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 10.28 | +0.28 | +1.04 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.06 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 13.28 | +0.28 | +1.15 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.04 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.68 | +0.18 | +0.34 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.63 | +0.13 | +0.58 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.06 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 12.77 | +0.10 | +0.82 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.05 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.06 | +0.06 | +0.23 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 15.29 | +0.04 | +0.45 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.02 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 5.52 | +0.02 | +0.42 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.01 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 13.00 | 0.00 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.11 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 11.48 | −0.02 | +0.97 | 0.00 | −0.99 | 0.00 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 2.58 | −0.09 | +0.35 | 0.00 | −0.44 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 14.14 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | 0.00 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 11.12 | −0.21 | +0.47 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.02 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 5.75 | −0.25 | +0.79 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.03 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 13.42 | −0.25 | +0.16 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.01 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 12.97 | −0.28 | +0.62 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.01 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 12.19 | −0.31 | +0.34 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.04 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 7.98 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.05 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 7.04 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.04 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 15.94 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | −0.02 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.57 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.05 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 4.16 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.02 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 7.77 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.08 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 13.50 | −0.50 | +0.20 | 0.00 | −0.64 | −0.07 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 13.99 | −0.51 | +0.21 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.07 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 3.94 | −0.56 | +0.55 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 11.44 | −0.56 | +0.78 | 0.00 | −1.57 | +0.23 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 16.79 | −0.61 | +0.12 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.01 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 13.10 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.02 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 11.34 | −0.66 | +0.13 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.01 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 14.09 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | 0.00 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 7.68 | −0.72 | +0.33 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.01 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 10.75 | −0.75 | +0.64 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.12 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 7.92 | −0.75 | +0.27 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.03 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 12.73 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.12 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 13.96 | −0.79 | +0.21 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.07 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.71 | −0.79 | +0.34 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.19 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 13.35 | −0.85 | +0.08 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.10 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 9.12 | −0.88 | +0.14 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.07 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 13.12 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.03 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 7.99 | −0.89 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −1.96 | +0.07 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 11.11 | −0.89 | +0.15 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.08 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 13.76 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.05 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 8.29 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.02 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 6.45 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | 0.00 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 13.79 | −1.07 | +0.33 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.02 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 2.92 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.02 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 4.89 | −1.11 | +0.60 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.02 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 12.69 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.09 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 10.57 | −1.23 | +0.32 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.05 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 10.67 | −1.33 | +0.28 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.03 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 10.32 | −1.35 | +0.32 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.09 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 8.60 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.03 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 11.88 | −1.62 | +0.14 | 0.00 | −1.54 | −0.21 |
Seed 22 of experiment cycle-001.e3-est-random. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.