E4 · cycle-002.e4-bra

Brazil, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Brazil decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 3, Core disaster in year 5, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 11.78 (+0.36); From 11.43; 11.77 to 11.79
Rank by index: 30; From 34; 30 to 30
Domains at Tier 1: 3; From 0; 3 to 3
Tier rank: 5; From 22; 5 to 5

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	11.43	11.77	11.78	11.79	higher
Rank by index	34	30	30	30	lower
Tier rank	22	5	5	5	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	3	3	3	higher
Score sum	824.8	856.5	857.5	858.4	higher
Goal-weighted score	824.8	856.5	857.5	858.4	higher
Resilient score	824.8	857.4 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 78 per cent, buy took 15 per cent, partner took 7 per cent of the 2,270 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Brazil actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 11.43; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 11.69; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 11.78; 11.71 to 11.85
Skill against persistence: −1.18; group error 1.99 against 0.91 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	9.54	8.95	9.17 9.1–9.2	+0.21	right
Strategic Infrastructure	13.31	13.80	15.01 14.9–15.1	+1.21	right
National Security	9.35	9.42	8.92 8.9–8.9	−0.50	wrong
Human Capital	10.98	11.88	14.53 14.3–14.7	+2.65	right
Information & Influence	11.85	11.86	11.83 11.8–11.9	−0.03	right
Governance & Integrity	10.95	12.11	10.85 10.8–10.9	−1.27	wrong
Financial Strength	12.72	13.12	12.21 12.2–12.3	−0.91	wrong
Production & Innovation	12.00	11.88	12.65 12.6–12.7	+0.77	wrong
Trade & Investment	12.15	12.18	10.89 10.8–11.0	−1.29	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1999 · S02 × 0.8 Brazil's crawling peg collapsed after Russia's default, forcing the real to float and an IMF programme.
2001 · S07 × 0.4 A severe drought drained hydro reservoirs, causing electricity rationing and slowing industry.
2008 · S02 × 0.5 The global financial crisis hit Brazil through the trade and credit channels, but the banking system proved resilient.
2020 · S10 × 1.2 COVID-19 hit Brazil exceptionally hard; the federal response was chaotic and the death toll among the world's highest.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2002 · buy · 5% each Cardoso used the Real Plan's credibility to privatise telecoms, mining and energy while building fiscal and regulatory institutions. (Monetary & Currency Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship)
2003–2010 · build · 5% each Lula's administrations combined Bolsa Familia transfers with PAC infrastructure spending and expanded credit while projecting Brazil as a global-south leader. (Foundational Education, Population Health, Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks)
2011–2016 · build · 5% each Dilma's neo-developmental state prioritised pre-salt oil, local content, and technical education, but fiscal and political strains mounted. (Resource Infrastructure, Energy Technologies, Advanced Education, Technical & Vocational Skills, Industrial & Sectoral Base)
2017–2018 · build · 2% each Temer pushed fiscal responsibility, labour reform and administrative modernisation to restore credibility amid recession. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Labour & Employment, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Transparency, Oversight & Accountability)
2019–2022 · partner · 2% each Bolsonaro pursued agri-export expansion, digital government and infrastructure concessions through private partnerships while the pandemic disrupted delivery. (Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Digital & AI Competence, Technology Adoption & Diffusion, Trade Facilitation & Logistics)
2023–2026 · build · 5% each Lula's second government restarted industrial policy, clean energy investment and the PAC while expanding early childhood and social programmes. (Industrial & Sectoral Base, Energy Technologies, Energy Infrastructure, Early Childhood Development, Transport Infrastructure)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainty is the granular scoring for 1996, especially in hard critical technologies and national security, where Brazil's capabilities were uneven and comparative data are patchy. Event mapping compresses complex political-economic crises into the nearest library analogues, losing some specificity. Confidence is generally medium, but for critical technology it is low because frontier capabilities were hard to assess reliably against world leaders.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Brazil played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 11.43 to a median of 11.78 (+0.36), with 90 per cent of simulations between 11.77 and 11.80 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 34 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 22. Its base income is 378 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 2,270 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Energy Infrastructure (build, 201 credits, 8.9 per cent); Energy Technologies (build, 187 credits, 8.2 per cent); Transport Infrastructure (build, 177 credits, 7.8 per cent); Foundational Education (build, 155 credits, 6.8 per cent); Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks (build, 155 credits, 6.8 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 78 per cent, buy 15 per cent, partner 7 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.060, and the most repeated action appeared in 40 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Financial Strength; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Human Capital; rounds 16 to 20, Human Capital; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 4 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −39.0 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −14.5 points each); S07 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −12.0 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −2.60; Labour & Employment −2.52; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.46; Investment Attraction & Projection −2.29 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Advanced Education to Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (+1.18 points); Foundational Education to Advanced Education (+1.10 points); Transport Infrastructure to Trade Facilitation & Logistics (+0.75 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 30 (5th to 95th percentile 30 to 30), the median count of Tier 1 domains 3 (3 to 3) and the median tier rank 5; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 857 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: human capital (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); information and influence (0 to 97 per cent of simulations); strategic infrastructure (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.181 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.181 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.846: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between 0.000 and +0.015, for example 2006 build Foundational Education (20 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.592 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2).

retired_words (warn): e4-bra/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 18) ends −0.03 from it, with 4 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 11.43 the model ends at 11.78, where the 2026 ratings put it at 11.69. Group scores miss by 1.99 points on average, against 0.91 for assuming nothing changed (skill −1.18); the change in each domain has the right sign in 44 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: trade and investment (−1.29); furthest above: human capital (+2.65) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.846	−135.7	−3.00
No shocks	+1.181	+81.0	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.000	+0.1	0.00	2006 build Foundational Education (20 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.002	+0.1	0.00	2006 build Population Health (20 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.006	+0.4	0.00	2006 build Transport Infrastructure (20 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.015	+1.2	0.00	2006 build Energy Infrastructure (20 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.015	+1.4	−1.00	2006 build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks (20 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.592	+41.2	0.00	2020 S10 (-39.1 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.366	+24.6	0.00	1999 S02 (-18.1 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.166	+11.5	0.00	2001 S07 (-12.0 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	7.5	−14.5
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	5.0	−12.0
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−39.0

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.05	18.23 17.52 to 18.80	+8.18	8.25	67
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.36	19.37 19.14 to 19.61	+8.01	7.47	110
Foundational Education	Human Capital	11.18	18.83 18.81 to 18.86	+7.65	8.56	155
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.60	18.63 18.58 to 18.67	+6.03	6.73	144
Population Health	Human Capital	11.35	17.35 17.31 to 17.39	+6.00	7.10	155
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.24	17.01 16.93 to 17.11	+5.77	6.49	177
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.50	18.79 18.72 to 18.84	+5.29	5.82	201
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	12.37	17.56 17.53 to 17.60	+5.19	5.89	187
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	10.25	14.85 14.78 to 14.91	+4.60	6.09	114
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.52	19.05 19.02 to 19.07	+4.53	5.51	155
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	14.32	18.35 18.26 to 18.45	+4.03	5.08	130
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.93	14.65 14.65 to 14.66	+3.72	4.56	114
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.84	17.47 17.40 to 17.57	+2.63	3.45	114
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.47	13.04 12.89 to 13.18	+2.57	2.06	31
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	13.93	16.46 16.41 to 16.49	+2.53	4.21	114
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.72	13.49 13.45 to 13.53	+1.77	4.45	129
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	12.45	13.68 13.57 to 13.82	+1.23	2.11	31
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.00	12.14 11.91 to 12.30	+1.14	1.39	35
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.45	12.21 12.06 to 12.37	+0.76	2.64	31
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	11.56	12.09 11.75 to 12.34	+0.53	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	14.28	14.65 14.42 to 14.98	+0.37	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.97	16.12 16.09 to 16.16	+0.15	1.05	31
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	11.23	11.28 11.27 to 11.28	+0.05	0.80	15
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	12.73 12.66 to 12.80	−0.12	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	10.56	10.33 10.27 to 10.39	−0.23	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	12.70	12.40 12.09 to 12.63	−0.30	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	13.35	12.91 12.83 to 13.01	−0.44	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	12.46	12.01 12.00 to 12.02	−0.45	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	12.43	11.96 11.94 to 11.97	−0.47	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	9.90	9.41 9.39 to 9.44	−0.49	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.61	10.11 10.09 to 10.14	−0.50	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.93	0.43 0.42 to 0.43	−0.50	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	10.64	10.13 10.12 to 10.15	−0.51	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.41	5.88 5.85 to 5.90	−0.53	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	12.76	12.22 12.14 to 12.26	−0.54	0.72	15
Space Operations	National Security	6.73	6.15 6.12 to 6.17	−0.58	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.31	11.72 11.65 to 11.75	−0.59	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.07	10.32 10.23 to 10.41	−0.75	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.19	9.41 9.36 to 9.47	−0.78	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.76	8.98 8.97 to 8.99	−0.78	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	10.06	9.28 9.27 to 9.29	−0.78	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.91	15.10 15.03 to 15.19	−0.81	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.30	8.47 8.45 to 8.48	−0.83	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	8.24 8.23 to 8.25	−0.83	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	12.77	11.92 11.90 to 11.94	−0.85	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.36	9.51 9.46 to 9.56	−0.85	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.36	7.50 7.44 to 7.58	−0.86	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	10.21	9.30 9.26 to 9.36	−0.91	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	6.53	5.60 5.59 to 5.63	−0.93	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.07	11.13 11.03 to 11.17	−0.94	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	8.30	7.33 7.32 to 7.34	−0.97	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.70	3.71 3.70 to 3.72	−0.99	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.23	7.23 7.21 to 7.25	−1.00	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	10.98	9.95 9.91 to 9.98	−1.03	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	9.50	8.46 8.43 to 8.50	−1.04	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.17	12.04 11.90 to 12.15	−1.13	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.80	9.62 9.48 to 9.76	−1.18	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.93	9.71 9.68 to 9.75	−1.22	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	8.70 8.57 to 8.79	−1.22	1.05	15
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.97	9.72 9.66 to 9.76	−1.25	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.06	10.76 10.68 to 10.82	−1.30	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	13.15	11.82 11.78 to 11.86	−1.33	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	12.92	11.46 11.36 to 11.59	−1.46	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	12.95	11.44 11.43 to 11.46	−1.51	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	9.92	8.41 8.38 to 8.44	−1.51	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.64	10.07 10.02 to 10.12	−1.57	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	13.28	11.70 11.69 to 11.74	−1.58	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	14.01	12.39 12.32 to 12.49	−1.62	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	13.11	11.47 11.46 to 11.48	−1.64	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	12.24	10.50 10.45 to 10.54	−1.74	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	12.49	10.43 10.38 to 10.47	−2.06	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	14.27	12.10 12.09 to 12.11	−2.17	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	12.44	10.08 10.05 to 10.13	−2.36	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 5.7e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.421 to 19.757
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.87 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 34; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.060; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.energy_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 40% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-bra. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Brazil (BRA)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 3, Core disaster in year 5, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 377.9 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.1 seconds in all; 938 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.