A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-bra

Simulation 9

Brazil, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 9: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.43 at the 1996 position, 11.79 in 2026; 138 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 9

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 4 (median simulation), 22 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 11.79 (+0.37); From 11.43
Rank by index: 30; From 34
Domains at Tier 1: 3; From 0
Events: 4 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 19 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 19 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 19		11.47 +0.046
1998	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 19 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 19 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 19		11.53 +0.059
1999	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 19 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 19 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 19	Global funding seizure	11.32 −0.208
2000	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 19 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 19 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 19		11.39 +0.063
2001	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 19 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 19 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 19	Core disaster	11.28 −0.111
2002	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 19 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Buy Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 19 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19 Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 19		11.34 +0.061
2003	Build Foundational Education 19 Build Population Health 19 Build Transport Infrastructure 19 Build Energy Infrastructure 19 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 19		11.38 +0.039
2004	Build Foundational Education 19 Build Population Health 19 Build Transport Infrastructure 19 Build Energy Infrastructure 19 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 19		11.42 +0.043
2005	Build Foundational Education 20 Build Population Health 20 Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 20		11.47 +0.052
2006	Build Foundational Education 20 Build Population Health 20 Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 20		11.53 +0.060
2007	Build Foundational Education 20 Build Population Health 20 Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 20		11.60 +0.066
2008	Build Foundational Education 20 Build Population Health 20 Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 20	Global funding seizure	11.49 −0.103
2009	Build Foundational Education 20 Build Population Health 20 Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 20		11.55 +0.055
2010	Build Foundational Education 19 Build Population Health 19 Build Transport Infrastructure 19 Build Energy Infrastructure 19 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 19		11.60 +0.050
2011	Build Resource Infrastructure 19 Build Energy Technologies 19 Build Advanced Education 19 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 19 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 19		11.66 +0.058
2012	Build Resource Infrastructure 19 Build Energy Technologies 19 Build Advanced Education 19 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 19 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 19		11.72 +0.066
2013	Build Resource Infrastructure 19 Build Energy Technologies 19 Build Advanced Education 19 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 19 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 19		11.80 +0.074
2014	Build Resource Infrastructure 19 Build Energy Technologies 19 Build Advanced Education 19 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 12		11.87 +0.071
2015	Build Resource Infrastructure 19 Build Energy Technologies 19 Build Advanced Education 18		11.93 +0.065
2016	Build Resource Infrastructure 19 Build Energy Technologies 19 Build Advanced Education 16		11.99 +0.052
2017	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Labour & Employment 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 8		12.03 +0.045
2018	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Labour & Employment 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 8		12.07 +0.038
2019	Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 8 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Partner Digital & AI Competence 8 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 8 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8		12.11 +0.044
2020	Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 8 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Partner Digital & AI Competence 8 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 8 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8	Severe pandemic	11.61 −0.508
2021	Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 8 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Partner Digital & AI Competence 8 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 8 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8		11.65 +0.042
2022	Partner Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 7 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Partner Digital & AI Competence 7 Partner Technology Adoption & Diffusion 7 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7		11.68 +0.033
2023	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 18 Build Energy Technologies 18 Build Energy Infrastructure 18 Build Early Childhood Development 18 Build Transport Infrastructure 18		11.71 +0.031
2024	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 18 Build Energy Technologies 18 Build Energy Infrastructure 18 Build Early Childhood Development 13		11.74 +0.026
2025	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 18 Build Energy Technologies 18 Build Energy Infrastructure 5		11.76 +0.028
2026	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 18 Build Energy Technologies 18 Build Energy Infrastructure 0		11.79 +0.030

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	1	1	1	1
National Security	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Human Capital	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	10	10	9	9	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Financial Strength	9	9	9	9	8	6	5	5	3	3	3	3	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Production & Innovation	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2
Trade & Investment	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	8	8

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.846	−135.7	−3.00
No shocks	+1.181	+81.0	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	0.000	+0.1	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.002	+0.1	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.006	+0.4	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.015	+1.2	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.015	+1.4	−1.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.592	+41.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.366	+24.6	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.166	+11.5	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.05	18.36	+8.31	+8.44	−0.65	+0.53
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.36	19.50	+8.14	+7.46	−0.64	+1.31
Foundational Education	Human Capital	11.18	18.82	+7.64	+8.57	−0.91	−0.02
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.60	18.63	+6.03	+6.74	−0.81	+0.10
Population Health	Human Capital	11.35	17.33	+5.98	+7.10	−0.93	−0.19
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.24	16.93	+5.69	+6.44	−0.87	+0.13
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.50	18.79	+5.29	+5.78	−0.86	+0.38
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	12.37	17.63	+5.26	+5.88	−0.85	+0.22
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	10.25	14.84	+4.59	+6.09	−1.58	+0.07
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.52	19.06	+4.54	+5.52	−0.85	−0.13
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	14.32	18.48	+4.16	+5.06	−1.45	+0.55
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.93	14.66	+3.73	+4.56	−0.82	−0.01
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.84	17.56	+2.72	+3.44	−0.68	−0.04
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	13.93	16.44	+2.51	+4.21	−1.72	+0.01
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.47	12.76	+2.29	+2.08	−0.75	+0.96
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.72	13.52	+1.80	+4.45	−2.46	−0.20
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	12.45	13.74	+1.29	+2.10	−1.35	+0.54
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.00	11.92	+0.92	+1.26	−0.74	+0.40
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	14.28	15.16	+0.88	0.00	−0.72	+1.59
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.45	12.30	+0.85	+2.62	−2.60	+0.82
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	11.56	12.34	+0.78	0.00	−0.73	+1.50
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.97	16.17	+0.20	+1.05	−0.70	−0.14
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	11.23	11.28	+0.05	+0.79	−0.73	−0.02
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	12.74	−0.11	0.00	−0.42	+0.30
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	10.56	10.39	−0.17	0.00	−0.43	+0.26
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	12.70	12.33	−0.37	0.00	−0.99	+0.63
Maritime Power	National Security	12.46	12.00	−0.46	0.00	−0.42	−0.04
Land Power	National Security	12.43	11.96	−0.47	0.00	−0.42	−0.05
Air Power	National Security	10.64	10.15	−0.49	0.00	−0.43	−0.05
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	13.35	12.86	−0.49	0.00	−0.70	+0.20
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.61	10.11	−0.50	0.00	−0.43	−0.07
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	9.90	9.40	−0.50	0.00	−0.44	−0.06
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.93	0.42	−0.51	0.00	−0.50	0.00
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	12.76	12.23	−0.53	+0.72	−1.41	+0.17
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.41	5.85	−0.56	0.00	−0.46	−0.10
Space Operations	National Security	6.73	6.17	−0.56	0.00	−0.46	−0.11
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.31	11.72	−0.59	0.00	−0.74	+0.15
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.07	10.43	−0.64	0.00	−1.01	+0.37
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.76	8.97	−0.79	0.00	−0.75	−0.04
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	10.06	9.27	−0.79	0.00	−0.75	−0.03
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.36	9.55	−0.81	0.00	−0.95	+0.14
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.30	8.49	−0.81	0.00	−0.77	−0.05
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	12.77	11.94	−0.83	0.00	−0.87	+0.04
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.19	9.36	−0.83	0.00	−0.91	+0.07
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	8.22	−0.85	0.00	−0.77	−0.07
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.07	11.18	−0.89	0.00	−1.21	+0.32
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.36	7.46	−0.90	0.00	−0.93	+0.03
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.91	15.01	−0.90	0.00	−0.96	+0.06
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	6.53	5.61	−0.92	0.00	−0.96	+0.04
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	10.21	9.25	−0.96	0.00	−1.02	+0.07
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	8.30	7.33	−0.97	0.00	−0.93	−0.03
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.70	3.71	−0.99	0.00	−0.99	0.00
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	9.50	8.51	−0.99	0.00	−1.03	+0.04
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.23	7.23	−1.00	0.00	−0.93	−0.07
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	10.98	9.92	−1.06	0.00	−0.89	−0.17
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.17	11.99	−1.18	0.00	−1.60	+0.42
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.80	9.62	−1.18	0.00	−1.65	+0.47
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.93	9.73	−1.20	0.00	−1.17	−0.02
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	10.97	9.71	−1.26	0.00	−1.37	+0.11
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	8.65	−1.27	+1.05	−2.52	+0.19
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	13.15	11.84	−1.31	0.00	−1.33	+0.03
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.06	10.73	−1.33	0.00	−1.45	+0.13
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	9.92	8.47	−1.45	0.00	−1.46	+0.01
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	12.92	11.46	−1.46	0.00	−1.90	+0.43
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	12.95	11.45	−1.50	0.00	−1.45	−0.06
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	13.28	11.70	−1.58	0.00	−1.60	+0.02
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	14.01	12.42	−1.59	0.00	−1.93	+0.35
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.64	10.04	−1.60	0.00	−1.63	+0.03
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	13.11	11.45	−1.66	0.00	−1.59	−0.06
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	12.24	10.52	−1.72	0.00	−1.62	−0.10
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	12.49	10.38	−2.11	0.00	−1.98	−0.13
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	14.27	12.10	−2.17	0.00	−2.12	−0.04
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	12.44	10.09	−2.35	0.00	−2.29	−0.06

Seed 9 of experiment cycle-002.e4-bra. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.