Simulation 4
Brazil, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 4: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.43 at the 1996 position, 11.78 in 2026; 138 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 4
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 22 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 11.78 (+0.36)
- From 11.43
- Rank by index
- 30
- From 34
- Domains at Tier 1
- 3
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 11.47 +0.046 | |
| 1998 |
| 11.53 +0.059 | |
| 1999 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.33 −0.207 |
| 2000 |
| 11.39 +0.063 | |
| 2001 |
| Core disaster | 11.28 −0.111 |
| 2002 |
| 11.34 +0.060 | |
| 2003 |
| 11.38 +0.039 | |
| 2004 |
| 11.42 +0.043 | |
| 2005 |
| 11.47 +0.052 | |
| 2006 |
| 11.53 +0.060 | |
| 2007 |
| 11.60 +0.065 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.49 −0.103 |
| 2009 |
| 11.55 +0.054 | |
| 2010 |
| 11.60 +0.050 | |
| 2011 |
| 11.66 +0.057 | |
| 2012 |
| 11.72 +0.066 | |
| 2013 |
| 11.79 +0.073 | |
| 2014 |
| 11.87 +0.071 | |
| 2015 |
| 11.93 +0.065 | |
| 2016 |
| 11.98 +0.052 | |
| 2017 |
| 12.03 +0.045 | |
| 2018 |
| 12.07 +0.039 | |
| 2019 |
| 12.11 +0.043 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 11.60 −0.508 |
| 2021 |
| 11.64 +0.040 | |
| 2022 |
| 11.68 +0.031 | |
| 2023 |
| 11.70 +0.029 | |
| 2024 |
| 11.73 +0.024 | |
| 2025 |
| 11.75 +0.026 | |
| 2026 |
| 11.78 +0.029 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Production & Innovation | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.846 | −135.7 | −3.00 |
| No shocks | +1.181 | +81.0 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.002 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.006 | +0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.015 | +1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.015 | +1.4 | −1.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.592 | +41.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.366 | +24.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.166 | +11.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 10.05 | 18.82 | +8.77 | +8.73 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.69 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 11.36 | 19.40 | +8.04 | +7.46 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +1.21 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.18 | 18.82 | +7.64 | +8.57 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.02 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.35 | 17.34 | +5.99 | +7.11 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.18 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.60 | 18.58 | +5.98 | +6.76 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.03 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.24 | 16.94 | +5.70 | +6.43 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.14 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.50 | 18.77 | +5.27 | +5.77 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.36 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.37 | 17.54 | +5.17 | +5.91 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.11 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 10.25 | 14.85 | +4.60 | +6.09 | 0.00 | −1.58 | +0.08 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.52 | 19.02 | +4.50 | +5.53 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.18 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.32 | 18.47 | +4.15 | +5.05 | 0.00 | −1.45 | +0.54 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.93 | 14.65 | +3.72 | +4.56 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.01 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.84 | 17.59 | +2.75 | +3.43 | 0.00 | −0.68 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.47 | 13.05 | +2.58 | +2.03 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +1.30 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 13.93 | 16.47 | +2.54 | +4.21 | 0.00 | −1.72 | +0.05 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 11.72 | 13.53 | +1.81 | +4.45 | 0.00 | −2.46 | −0.18 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 12.45 | 13.66 | +1.21 | +2.11 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.45 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 11.00 | 11.86 | +0.86 | +1.14 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.47 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.28 | 15.11 | +0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +1.55 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 11.45 | 12.27 | +0.82 | +2.62 | 0.00 | −2.60 | +0.79 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.56 | 12.18 | +0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +1.35 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.97 | 16.13 | +0.16 | +1.05 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.19 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 11.23 | 11.27 | +0.04 | +0.79 | 0.00 | −0.73 | −0.03 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.85 | 12.66 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.23 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 10.56 | 10.28 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.15 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 13.35 | 12.90 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.25 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.46 | 12.01 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.04 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.43 | 11.96 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.05 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.93 | 0.43 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | 0.00 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.90 | 9.39 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.07 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 10.61 | 10.09 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.09 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 12.70 | 12.18 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.48 |
| Air Power | National Security | 10.64 | 10.11 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.09 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.41 | 5.87 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.09 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.31 | 11.74 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.17 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 6.73 | 6.13 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.15 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 12.76 | 12.15 | −0.61 | +0.72 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.09 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.76 | 8.98 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 10.06 | 9.28 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.03 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.36 | 9.57 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.15 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.07 | 8.26 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.04 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.19 | 9.37 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.09 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.07 | 10.24 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.18 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 9.30 | 8.47 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.07 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 12.77 | 11.92 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.02 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.07 | 11.20 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.34 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.91 | 15.03 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.08 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.36 | 7.44 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.01 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.21 | 9.28 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.10 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 6.53 | 5.59 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 8.30 | 7.33 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.04 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.70 | 3.71 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.23 | 7.22 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.08 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 10.98 | 9.96 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.12 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.17 | 12.12 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | +0.54 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 8.43 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.04 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.92 | 8.82 | −1.10 | +1.05 | 0.00 | −2.52 | +0.36 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 10.80 | 9.60 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | +0.46 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 10.93 | 9.72 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | −0.03 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 10.97 | 9.75 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | +0.15 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 12.06 | 10.76 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | +0.15 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 13.15 | 11.80 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.02 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.95 | 11.45 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.05 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.92 | 8.42 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.04 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.64 | 10.10 | −1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.09 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.28 | 11.71 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | +0.02 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 13.11 | 11.45 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.06 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.01 | 12.35 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | +0.28 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.92 | 11.25 | −1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.89 | +0.23 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.24 | 10.41 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.62 | −0.21 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 12.49 | 10.37 | −2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.98 | −0.15 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.27 | 12.08 | −2.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.12 | −0.06 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.44 | 10.05 | −2.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.29 | −0.11 |
Seed 4 of experiment cycle-002.e4-bra. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.