A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-egy

Simulation 2

Egypt, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 2: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.81 at the 1996 position, 9.73 in 2026; 186 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 2

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 3 (median simulation), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 9.73 (−1.07); From 10.81
Rank by index: 49; From 37
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0
Events: 7 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Financial System Depth & Access 7 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7		10.81 +0.008
1998	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Financial System Depth & Access 7 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7		10.83 +0.016
1999	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Financial System Depth & Access 7 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7		10.85 +0.022
2000	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Financial System Depth & Access 7 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7		10.88 +0.024
2001	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Financial System Depth & Access 7 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7		10.90 +0.025
2002	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Financial System Depth & Access 7 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7		10.93 +0.026
2003	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Financial System Depth & Access 7 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7		10.95 +0.026
2004	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 8 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 8 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8	Market access opening	11.05 +0.094
2005	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 8 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 8 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8		11.15 +0.099
2006	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 8 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 8 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8		11.24 +0.097
2007	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 8 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 8 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8		11.28 +0.039
2008	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 8 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 8 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8	Global funding seizure	11.16 −0.124
2009	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 8 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 8 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8		11.19 +0.033
2010	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 8 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 8 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8		11.22 +0.031
2011	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8 Build Internal Security & Order 8 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 8 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 8	Legitimacy rupture	10.74 −0.484
2012	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8 Build Internal Security & Order 8 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 8 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 8		10.75 +0.011
2013	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7 Build Internal Security & Order 7 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 7	Legitimacy rupture	10.40 −0.345
2014	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7 Build Internal Security & Order 7 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 18 Build Energy Infrastructure 18 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 18 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 18 Build Social Infrastructure 18		10.42 +0.014
2015	Build Transport Infrastructure 18 Build Energy Infrastructure 18 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 18 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 18 Build Social Infrastructure 18		10.44 +0.018
2016	Build Transport Infrastructure 18 Build Energy Infrastructure 18 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 18 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 18 Build Social Infrastructure 18 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 7 Build Financial System Depth & Access 7 Build Population Health 7 Build Health System Capability 7	Global funding seizure	10.25 −0.185
2017	Build Transport Infrastructure 18 Build Energy Infrastructure 18 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 18 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 18 Build Social Infrastructure 18 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 7 Build Financial System Depth & Access 7 Build Population Health 7 Build Health System Capability 7		10.29 +0.043
2018	Build Transport Infrastructure 17 Build Energy Infrastructure 17 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 17 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Social Infrastructure 17 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 7 Build Financial System Depth & Access 7 Build Population Health 7 Build Health System Capability 7		10.34 +0.046
2019	Build Transport Infrastructure 17 Build Energy Infrastructure 17 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 17 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Social Infrastructure 17 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 7 Build Financial System Depth & Access 7 Build Population Health 7 Build Health System Capability 7		10.39 +0.052
2020	Build Transport Infrastructure 17 Build Energy Infrastructure 17 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 17 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 17 Build Social Infrastructure 17 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 7 Build Financial System Depth & Access 7 Build Population Health 7 Build Health System Capability 7 Partner Population Health 7 Partner Health System Capability 7 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Technologies 7 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 7	Severe pandemic	10.25 −0.144
2021	Partner Population Health 7 Partner Health System Capability 7 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Technologies 7 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 7		10.30 +0.054
2022	Partner Population Health 7 Partner Health System Capability 7 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Technologies 7 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 7	Breadbasket failure	9.90 −0.403
2023	Partner Population Health 7 Partner Health System Capability 7 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Technologies 7 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 7	Regional war spillover	9.71 −0.184
2024	Partner Population Health 7 Partner Health System Capability 7 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Partner Energy Technologies 7 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 7		9.72 +0.008
2025	Partner Population Health 6 Partner Health System Capability 6 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Partner Energy Technologies 6 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 6		9.73 +0.004
2026	Partner Population Health 6 Partner Health System Capability 6 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Partner Energy Technologies 6 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 6		9.73 +0.005

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	8
Strategic Infrastructure	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1
National Security	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Human Capital	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	9	8	7	7	6
Information & Influence	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	10	10	10	9	10	10	10	10	10	11	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	9	9
Financial Strength	11	11	11	11	11	10	10	10	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	10	11	11	11	11	11
Production & Innovation	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	9	9	9	9	6	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10
Trade & Investment	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	4	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.377	−101.6	−1.00
No shocks	+2.433	+170.8	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.006	−0.5	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.009	−0.7	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.013	−1.1	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.008	−0.6	−1.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.008	−0.7	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.694	+49.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.500	+35.1	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.461	+32.7	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.11	19.21	+7.10	+8.24	−1.12	−0.02
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.81	15.99	+4.18	+5.69	−1.51	−0.01
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.77	17.72	+3.95	+5.26	−1.12	−0.19
Population Health	Human Capital	10.23	13.03	+2.80	+3.95	−1.34	+0.19
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.88	14.61	+2.73	+4.45	−1.62	−0.11
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.54	14.18	+2.64	+4.61	−1.85	−0.12
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.35	13.62	+2.27	+3.45	−1.19	0.00
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.71	13.28	+1.57	+2.92	−1.32	−0.03
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.89	8.42	+1.53	+3.31	−1.79	+0.01
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	11.75	13.01	+1.26	+3.93	−2.63	−0.05
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.53	13.77	+1.24	+3.12	−1.68	−0.20
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	12.29	13.44	+1.15	+2.59	−1.57	+0.13
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.79	14.74	+0.95	+2.93	−2.63	+0.66
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	12.63	12.74	+0.11	+2.19	−1.97	−0.10
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.49	11.57	+0.08	+3.04	−2.81	−0.15
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−2.15	−0.01
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.04	7.96	−0.08	+1.80	−1.81	−0.07
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.85	9.61	−0.24	+1.49	−1.75	+0.02
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.40	8.78	−0.62	0.00	−0.94	+0.31
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	11.99	11.32	−0.67	+1.34	−1.91	−0.09
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.68	9.98	−0.70	0.00	−0.71	+0.02
Foundational Education	Human Capital	11.32	10.40	−0.92	0.00	−1.05	+0.13
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.85	10.90	−0.95	0.00	−0.89	−0.05
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.93	8.97	−0.96	0.00	−0.93	−0.04
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	11.01	10.04	−0.97	0.00	−0.97	+0.01
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.68	8.66	−1.02	0.00	−0.93	−0.09
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.56	10.46	−1.10	0.00	−1.23	+0.13
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.96	9.67	−1.29	0.00	−1.36	+0.07
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.83	5.53	−1.30	0.00	−1.39	+0.09
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.40	8.05	−1.35	0.00	−1.22	−0.13
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.73	11.37	−1.36	0.00	−1.78	+0.42
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.80	9.42	−1.38	0.00	−1.80	+0.41
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	6.50	5.04	−1.46	0.00	−1.40	−0.06
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	3.93	−1.50	0.00	−1.43	−0.08
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.07	1.57	−1.50	0.00	−1.48	−0.02
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.53	2.02	−1.51	0.00	−1.47	−0.04
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.20	11.69	−1.51	0.00	−1.53	+0.02
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	13.87	12.36	−1.51	0.00	−1.91	+0.40
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.55	1.02	−1.53	0.00	−1.49	−0.03
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.64	4.02	−1.62	0.00	−1.42	−0.20
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	8.91	7.28	−1.63	0.00	−1.58	−0.06
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	3.43	1.77	−1.66	0.00	−1.47	−0.19
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.33	9.63	−1.70	0.00	−1.35	−0.35
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.07	7.27	−1.80	0.00	−1.84	+0.04
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	12.16	10.34	−1.82	+3.19	−4.56	−0.46
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.52	13.68	−1.84	0.00	−1.69	−0.15
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	10.69	8.84	−1.85	0.00	−1.80	−0.05
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.11	6.24	−1.87	0.00	−1.89	+0.02
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	14.37	12.49	−1.88	0.00	−1.96	+0.09
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.30	11.41	−1.89	0.00	−1.54	−0.34
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	11.68	9.75	−1.93	0.00	−1.80	−0.13
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	6.94	−2.02	0.00	−1.84	−0.17
Air Power	National Security	12.96	10.89	−2.07	0.00	−1.76	−0.31
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.99	12.89	−2.10	0.00	−2.04	−0.06
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.06	10.96	−2.10	0.00	−2.09	−0.01
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	11.96	9.86	−2.10	0.00	−2.16	+0.06
Land Power	National Security	15.74	13.63	−2.11	0.00	−1.68	−0.42
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	7.69	−2.24	0.00	−2.22	−0.02
Maritime Power	National Security	10.40	8.15	−2.25	0.00	−2.10	−0.15
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	2.90	−2.28	0.00	−2.00	−0.28
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	13.78	11.43	−2.35	0.00	−2.07	−0.28
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	10.50	8.12	−2.38	0.00	−2.30	−0.08
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	10.60	8.15	−2.45	0.00	−2.16	−0.29
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	8.68	6.09	−2.59	0.00	−2.15	−0.43
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	10.37	7.71	−2.66	0.00	−2.52	−0.13
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	15.03	12.36	−2.67	0.00	−2.51	−0.16
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.82	6.01	−2.81	0.00	−2.66	−0.14
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	15.21	12.26	−2.95	0.00	−2.81	−0.15
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	12.38	9.39	−2.99	+1.79	−4.53	−0.26
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.31	12.30	−3.01	0.00	−2.33	−0.69
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.97	7.88	−3.09	0.00	−3.08	0.00
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.98	8.76	−3.22	0.00	−3.03	−0.19
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.42	8.75	−3.67	0.00	−3.46	−0.21

Seed 2 of experiment cycle-002.e4-egy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.