Simulation 3
Egypt, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 3: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.81 at the 1996 position, 9.74 in 2026; 186 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 3
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 2 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 9.74 (−1.07)
- From 10.81
- Rank by index
- 49
- From 37
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 7 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 10.81 +0.008 | |
| 1998 |
| 10.83 +0.016 | |
| 1999 |
| 10.85 +0.022 | |
| 2000 |
| 10.88 +0.024 | |
| 2001 |
| 10.90 +0.025 | |
| 2002 |
| 10.93 +0.025 | |
| 2003 |
| 10.95 +0.026 | |
| 2004 |
| Market access opening | 11.05 +0.094 |
| 2005 |
| 11.14 +0.099 | |
| 2006 |
| 11.24 +0.097 | |
| 2007 |
| 11.28 +0.039 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.16 −0.124 |
| 2009 |
| 11.19 +0.034 | |
| 2010 |
| 11.22 +0.031 | |
| 2011 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 10.74 −0.483 |
| 2012 |
| 10.75 +0.012 | |
| 2013 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 10.41 −0.345 |
| 2014 |
| 10.42 +0.014 | |
| 2015 |
| 10.44 +0.018 | |
| 2016 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.25 −0.185 |
| 2017 |
| 10.30 +0.043 | |
| 2018 |
| 10.34 +0.045 | |
| 2019 |
| 10.39 +0.052 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 10.25 −0.143 |
| 2021 |
| 10.30 +0.054 | |
| 2022 |
| Breadbasket failure | 9.90 −0.403 |
| 2023 |
| Regional war spillover | 9.72 −0.183 |
| 2024 |
| 9.73 +0.009 | |
| 2025 |
| 9.73 +0.005 | |
| 2026 |
| 9.74 +0.005 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Production & Innovation | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Trade & Investment | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.377 | −101.6 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +2.433 | +170.8 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.009 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.013 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.008 | −0.6 | −1.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.008 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.694 | +49.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.500 | +35.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.461 | +32.7 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.11 | 19.22 | +7.11 | +8.25 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.02 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.81 | 16.00 | +4.19 | +5.70 | 0.00 | −1.51 | −0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.77 | 17.73 | +3.96 | +5.26 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.18 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.88 | 14.69 | +2.81 | +4.46 | 0.00 | −1.62 | −0.02 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 10.23 | 13.03 | +2.80 | +3.96 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.19 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.54 | 14.09 | +2.55 | +4.61 | 0.00 | −1.85 | −0.21 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 11.35 | 13.59 | +2.24 | +3.46 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.04 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 11.71 | 13.34 | +1.63 | +2.91 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.04 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.89 | 8.43 | +1.54 | +3.32 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.01 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 12.29 | 13.61 | +1.32 | +2.58 | 0.00 | −1.57 | +0.31 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 11.75 | 13.01 | +1.26 | +3.93 | 0.00 | −2.63 | −0.05 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 12.53 | 13.77 | +1.24 | +3.12 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.21 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.79 | 14.58 | +0.79 | +2.93 | 0.00 | −2.63 | +0.50 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 12.63 | 12.76 | +0.13 | +2.19 | 0.00 | −1.97 | −0.08 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.49 | 11.56 | +0.07 | +3.04 | 0.00 | −2.81 | −0.17 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.02 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 8.04 | 7.96 | −0.08 | +1.80 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.08 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.85 | 9.62 | −0.23 | +1.49 | 0.00 | −1.75 | +0.03 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 9.40 | 8.77 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.30 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 10.68 | 10.00 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.03 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 11.99 | 11.28 | −0.71 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −1.91 | −0.13 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.32 | 10.47 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.19 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 11.85 | 10.91 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.05 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 11.01 | 10.04 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.93 | 8.92 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.08 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 9.68 | 8.65 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.10 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 11.56 | 10.49 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.16 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.96 | 9.86 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.26 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 13.87 | 12.71 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.91 | +0.75 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 10.80 | 9.52 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | +0.51 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.83 | 5.54 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.10 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.40 | 8.07 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.11 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 11.27 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.78 | +0.32 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 6.50 | 5.03 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.07 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.53 | 2.03 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.03 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.20 | 11.70 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | +0.03 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 3.07 | 1.56 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.03 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.33 | 9.80 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.18 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.43 | 3.90 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.11 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.55 | 1.02 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.04 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 8.91 | 7.30 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.04 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 5.64 | 4.01 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.21 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 3.43 | 1.80 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.16 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.16 | 10.43 | −1.73 | +3.19 | 0.00 | −4.55 | −0.36 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 10.69 | 8.90 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | +0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.52 | 13.72 | −1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.11 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.07 | 7.26 | −1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.84 | +0.03 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 8.11 | 6.23 | −1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.89 | +0.01 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.30 | 11.40 | −1.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.54 | −0.36 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 14.37 | 12.41 | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.96 | +0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 11.68 | 9.72 | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.15 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.96 | 10.89 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.76 | −0.30 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.96 | 6.89 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.84 | −0.22 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.06 | 10.96 | −2.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.09 | −0.01 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.96 | 9.85 | −2.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.16 | +0.05 |
| Land Power | National Security | 15.74 | 13.61 | −2.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.44 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 14.99 | 12.86 | −2.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.04 | −0.09 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.18 | 2.95 | −2.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.00 | −0.23 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.93 | 7.64 | −2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.22 | −0.06 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 10.40 | 8.11 | −2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.10 | −0.19 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.78 | 11.47 | −2.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.07 | −0.23 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.50 | 8.12 | −2.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.30 | −0.08 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.60 | 8.08 | −2.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.36 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 8.68 | 6.13 | −2.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.40 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 10.37 | 7.72 | −2.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.52 | −0.12 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 15.03 | 12.25 | −2.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.51 | −0.27 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 8.82 | 5.98 | −2.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.66 | −0.18 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 15.21 | 12.25 | −2.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.81 | −0.15 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 12.38 | 9.39 | −2.99 | +1.79 | 0.00 | −4.53 | −0.27 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.31 | 12.27 | −3.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.33 | −0.71 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.97 | 7.87 | −3.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.08 | −0.02 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 11.98 | 8.64 | −3.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.03 | −0.31 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.42 | 8.69 | −3.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.46 | −0.26 |
Seed 3 of experiment cycle-002.e4-egy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.