A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-rwa

Simulation 28

Rwanda, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 28: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 5.13 at the 1996 position, 3.49 in 2026; 144 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 28

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 8 (median simulation), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 3.49 (−1.65); From 5.13
Rank by index: 159; From 116
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 5 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Social Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2		5.14 +0.001
1998	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Social Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2	Regional war spillover	4.80 −0.340
1999	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Social Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2		4.79 −0.002
2000	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Social Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2	Breadbasket failure	4.52 −0.270
2001	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.52 −0.007
2002	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.51 −0.009
2003	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.50 −0.008
2004	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.50 −0.003
2005	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.49 −0.003
2006	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.49 +0.001
2007	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.50 +0.002
2008	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 2 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 2	Global funding seizure	4.29 −0.208
2009	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 2 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 2		4.30 +0.008
2010	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 1 Partner Transport Infrastructure 1 Partner Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 1		4.30 +0.006
2011	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 1 Partner Transport Infrastructure 1 Partner Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 1		4.31 +0.007
2012	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 1 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 1 Partner Transport Infrastructure 1 Partner Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 1		4.32 +0.007
2013	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 Build Digital & AI Competence 3 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 3 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		4.32 +0.006
2014	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 Build Digital & AI Competence 3 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 3 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		4.33 +0.008
2015	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 Build Digital & AI Competence 3 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 3 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		4.34 +0.012
2016	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 Build Digital & AI Competence 3 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 3 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		4.36 +0.014
2017	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 Build Digital & AI Competence 3 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 3 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		4.37 +0.016
2018	Build Energy Infrastructure 1 Build Transport Infrastructure 1 Build Advanced Manufacturing 1 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 1 Build Health System Capability 1		4.39 +0.013
2019	Build Energy Infrastructure 1 Build Transport Infrastructure 1 Build Advanced Manufacturing 1 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 1 Build Health System Capability 1		4.40 +0.011
2020	Build Energy Infrastructure 1 Build Transport Infrastructure 1 Build Advanced Manufacturing 1 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 1 Build Health System Capability 1	Severe pandemic	3.99 −0.403
2021	Build Energy Infrastructure 1 Build Transport Infrastructure 1 Build Advanced Manufacturing 1 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 1 Build Health System Capability 1		4.00 0.000
2022	Build Energy Infrastructure 1 Build Transport Infrastructure 1 Build Advanced Manufacturing 1 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 1 Build Health System Capability 1	Breadbasket failure	3.54 −0.456
2023	Build Energy Infrastructure 1 Build Transport Infrastructure 1 Build Advanced Manufacturing 1 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 1 Build Health System Capability 1		3.53 −0.011
2024	Build Energy Infrastructure 1 Build Transport Infrastructure 1 Build Advanced Manufacturing 1 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 1 Build Health System Capability 1		3.51 −0.016
2025	Partner Artificial Intelligence 1 Partner Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 Partner Digital & AI Competence 1 Partner Innovation & Commercialisation 0		3.50 −0.014
2026	No actions		3.49 −0.011

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	14	14	14	15	15
Strategic Infrastructure	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	12	12	12	12	12
National Security	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	11	11
Human Capital	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Information & Influence	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	16	17	17	17	17
Governance & Integrity	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
Financial Strength	23	23	24	24	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	29	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	31	31	34	34	34	34	34
Production & Innovation	19	19	19	19	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	20	20	20	19	21	21	23	23	23	23	23
Trade & Investment	17	17	17	17	17	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	22	22	22	22	22

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.286	−21.5
No shocks	+1.989	+139.7
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.004	−0.4
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.005	−0.4
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.005	−0.3
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.003	−0.2
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.002	−0.2
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.494	+34.2
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.464	+32.3
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.452	+32.6

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	6.84	7.61	+0.77	+1.80	−0.96	−0.07
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	2.02	2.48	+0.46	+1.56	−1.09	−0.02
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−1.13	−0.04
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	6.74	6.58	−0.16	+0.97	−0.96	−0.16
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	5.44	4.97	−0.47	+1.33	−1.74	−0.06
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	0.67	0.00	−0.67	0.00	−1.85	−0.07
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	5.26	4.58	−0.68	+0.42	−1.00	−0.10
Foundational Education	Human Capital	6.67	5.95	−0.72	+0.78	−1.27	−0.23
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.85	5.11	−0.74	+1.37	−1.71	−0.40
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.92	7.05	−0.87	+0.58	−1.33	−0.12
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	5.28	4.37	−0.91	0.00	−1.04	+0.14
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	0.95	0.00	−0.95	0.00	−1.24	−0.04
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.04	0.00	−1.04	0.00	−1.23	−0.11
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	5.68	4.64	−1.04	0.00	−1.02	−0.02
Advanced Education	Human Capital	6.10	5.03	−1.07	0.00	−1.03	−0.04
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	5.61	4.53	−1.08	0.00	−1.04	−0.04
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	5.14	4.06	−1.08	0.00	−1.03	−0.05
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	4.72	3.62	−1.10	0.00	−1.05	−0.05
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	5.98	4.88	−1.10	0.00	−1.03	−0.06
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	4.25	3.14	−1.11	0.00	−1.05	−0.06
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	6.48	5.36	−1.12	+0.40	−1.39	−0.14
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	5.52	4.32	−1.20	0.00	−1.04	−0.16
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.20	0.00	−1.20	0.00	−1.23	−0.10
Air Power	National Security	2.68	1.43	−1.25	0.00	−1.09	−0.16
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.18	4.91	−1.27	+1.09	−2.01	−0.34
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	1.83	0.56	−1.27	0.00	−1.22	−0.05
Maritime Power	National Security	1.29	0.00	−1.29	0.00	−1.53	−0.08
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.55	1.24	−1.31	0.00	−1.21	−0.10
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	2.94	1.62	−1.32	0.00	−1.20	−0.12
Land Power	National Security	5.59	4.25	−1.34	0.00	−1.04	−0.30
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	6.14	4.77	−1.37	+1.19	−2.19	−0.36
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	4.93	3.54	−1.39	+0.09	−1.17	−0.31
Health System Capability	Human Capital	7.18	5.78	−1.40	+0.40	−1.39	−0.41
Space Operations	National Security	3.38	1.98	−1.40	0.00	−1.07	−0.33
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	4.42	3.01	−1.41	+0.58	−1.86	−0.13
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	5.25	3.83	−1.42	+0.56	−1.81	−0.18
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	8.24	6.79	−1.45	+0.56	−1.89	−0.12
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	6.36	4.90	−1.46	+0.38	−1.38	−0.47
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	6.51	4.97	−1.54	0.00	−1.52	−0.02
Population Health	Human Capital	6.38	4.81	−1.57	+0.44	−1.79	−0.21
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	5.12	3.49	−1.63	0.00	−1.45	−0.18
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	5.16	3.52	−1.64	0.00	−1.55	−0.09
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.02	2.35	−1.67	+0.94	−2.43	−0.19
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	3.61	1.94	−1.67	0.00	−1.43	−0.24
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	3.91	2.24	−1.67	0.00	−1.47	−0.20
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	6.01	4.30	−1.71	+0.59	−2.23	−0.06
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	6.97	5.24	−1.73	0.00	−1.02	−0.71
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	3.18	1.43	−1.75	0.00	−1.66	−0.09
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	4.39	2.63	−1.76	+0.92	−2.58	−0.10
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	7.36	5.59	−1.77	0.00	−1.52	−0.25
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	7.30	5.51	−1.79	0.00	−1.42	−0.37
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	3.83	1.97	−1.86	0.00	−1.57	−0.28
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	6.97	5.10	−1.87	0.00	−1.51	−0.35
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	3.36	1.41	−1.95	0.00	−1.78	−0.16
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.25	4.29	−1.96	+0.34	−1.56	−0.73
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	4.56	2.58	−1.98	0.00	−1.83	−0.15
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	5.77	3.75	−2.02	0.00	−1.81	−0.21
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	4.54	2.47	−2.07	0.00	−2.01	−0.07
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.80	5.69	−2.11	0.00	−1.48	−0.62
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	4.72	2.56	−2.16	0.00	−1.96	−0.20
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	6.76	4.55	−2.21	0.00	−2.15	−0.06
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	6.90	4.64	−2.26	0.00	−2.19	−0.08
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	6.43	4.12	−2.31	0.00	−2.20	−0.12
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	5.04	2.72	−2.32	0.00	−2.10	−0.22
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.24	3.88	−2.36	0.00	−2.09	−0.27
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	4.83	2.35	−2.48	0.00	−2.33	−0.14
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	6.10	3.60	−2.50	0.00	−2.16	−0.33
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	3.59	1.09	−2.50	0.00	−2.23	−0.27
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	5.44	2.63	−2.81	0.00	−2.52	−0.29
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	4.65	1.58	−3.07	0.00	−2.64	−0.43
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	5.87	2.53	−3.34	0.00	−3.02	−0.32
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	5.88	1.73	−4.15	0.00	−4.01	−0.14
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	6.66	2.28	−4.38	0.00	−3.81	−0.56

Seed 28 of experiment cycle-002.e4-rwa. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.