Round 4 · simulation 13 · mcts-m2.m2-est-mcts-index

Round 2030

Round 4 of 20 in simulation 13 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.093 to 11.40.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.40 (+0.092)
In: 11.31
Rank by index
34
In: 34
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
120
In: 73
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology6.656.91+0.2596
Strategic Infrastructure10.1610.17+0.0045
National Security6.726.74+0.0116
Human Capital14.7814.92+0.1443 → 2
Information & Influence10.2210.36+0.1426
Governance & Integrity15.0515.05+0.0025
Financial Strength13.2013.25+0.0568
Production & Innovation12.7212.93+0.2065
Trade & Investment12.2712.28+0.0108

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 363, plus 73 carried in. Maintenance 227. Spent 90 on actions (build 18, buy 36, partner 36). 120 carried over.

  • PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance18 credits for 0.59 levelsmctsahead of Space Operations by 0 per cent
  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills18 credits for 1.53 levelsmcts_fill
  • PartnerDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks18 credits for 1.49 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing18 credits for 1.44 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyEconomic Output & Productivity18 credits for 1.07 levelsmcts_fill

Tiers. Human Capital Tier 3 to 2.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+1.44+1.440.000.000.00
Economic Output & Productivity+1.40+1.400.000.000.00
Technical & Vocational Skills+1.30+1.300.000.000.00
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks+0.77+0.740.000.00+0.02
Space Technologies+0.67+0.670.000.000.00
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance+0.33+0.290.000.00+0.04