Round 2035
Round 9 of 20 in simulation 13 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Legitimacy rupture and Cryptographic trust break, and the index −0.789 to 6.00.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2035 (the end of 2034) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 6.00 (−0.789)
- In: 6.79
- Rank by index
- 96
- In: 85
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 3
- In: 3
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3.00 | 2.24 | −0.759 | 11 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 6.91 | 6.33 | −0.585 | 8 → 9 |
| National Security | 4.22 | 3.01 | −1.208 | 9 → 11 |
| Human Capital | 8.18 | 8.03 | −0.152 | 10 → 8 |
| Information & Influence | 7.95 | 6.72 | −1.235 | 8 → 11 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8.35 | 7.54 | −0.808 | 15 → 16 |
| Financial Strength | 7.53 | 6.23 | −1.301 | 21 → 24 |
| Production & Innovation | 7.27 | 6.76 | −0.511 | 15 → 16 |
| Trade & Investment | 7.69 | 7.15 | −0.541 | 13 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2035: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 133, plus 3 carried in. Maintenance 100. Spent 33 on actions (buy 13, partner 20). 3 carried over.
- PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance7 credits for 0.39 levelsmctsahead of Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies by 2 per cent
- BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing7 credits for 0.70 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerAlliances & Security Cooperation7 credits for 0.88 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies7 credits for 0.83 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication7 credits for 0.75 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Legitimacy rupture S05. −32.3 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
- Shock: Cryptographic trust break S09. −28.4 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Strategic Infrastructure Tier 8 to 9; National Security Tier 9 to 11; Human Capital Tier 10 to 8; Information & Influence Tier 8 to 11; Governance & Integrity Tier 15 to 16; Financial Strength Tier 21 to 24; Production & Innovation Tier 15 to 16.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | −2.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.11 | +0.01 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.04 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | +0.03 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.62 | −0.02 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.03 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.01 |