Simulation 13
Kenya, tree search, 20 years, seed 13: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 7.18 at the 2026 position, 5.62 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 13
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 47 (median simulation), 50 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 5.62 (−1.56)
- From 7.18
- Rank by index
- 108
- From 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 7.21 +0.035 | |
| 2028 |
| 7.25 +0.034 | |
| 2029 |
| 7.29 +0.043 | |
| 2030 |
| 7.32 +0.030 | |
| 2031 |
| 7.39 +0.065 | |
| 2032 |
| 7.47 +0.085 | |
| 2033 |
| Breadbasket failure | 6.74 −0.730 |
| 2034 |
| 6.79 +0.049 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureCryptographic trust break | 6.00 −0.789 |
| 2036 |
| 6.04 +0.044 | |
| 2037 |
| 6.05 +0.004 | |
| 2038 |
| 6.07 +0.023 | |
| 2039 |
| Global funding seizure | 5.77 −0.301 |
| 2040 |
| 5.79 +0.018 | |
| 2041 |
| 5.82 +0.037 | |
| 2042 |
| 5.87 +0.046 | |
| 2043 |
| 5.91 +0.034 | |
| 2044 |
| AI labour shock | 5.81 −0.096 |
| 2045 |
| 5.71 −0.097 | |
| 2046 |
| 5.62 −0.095 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| National Security | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Financial Strength | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 26 | 27 | 27 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.056 | −77.6 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.110 | +80.6 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.010 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.012 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.010 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.899 | +63.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.582 | +42.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.00 | 5.34 | +4.34 | +6.91 | 0.00 | −2.54 | −0.02 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.00 | 11.05 | +4.05 | +5.08 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.06 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.00 | 7.99 | +3.99 | +6.96 | 0.00 | −2.96 | −0.01 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 8.44 | +3.11 | +4.79 | 0.00 | −2.73 | +1.04 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.50 | 6.44 | +1.94 | +5.13 | 0.00 | −3.09 | −0.10 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.00 | 10.65 | +1.65 | +4.60 | 0.00 | −2.57 | −0.39 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 9.13 | +1.63 | +4.09 | 0.00 | −2.45 | −0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.00 | 8.56 | +1.56 | +2.91 | 0.00 | −1.30 | −0.05 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 2.43 | 3.68 | +1.25 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −2.14 | −0.02 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.75 | 10.95 | +1.20 | +4.28 | 0.00 | −2.63 | −0.46 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.50 | 8.23 | +0.73 | +2.27 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.20 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.60 | 2.01 | +0.41 | +2.71 | 0.00 | −2.17 | −0.13 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 6.33 | 6.50 | +0.17 | +3.16 | 0.00 | −2.75 | −0.24 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.05 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.33 | 6.94 | −0.39 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.23 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 6.62 | −0.88 | +1.78 | 0.00 | −2.56 | −0.11 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.67 | 6.77 | −0.90 | +2.87 | 0.00 | −3.56 | −0.22 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.25 | 2.12 | −1.13 | +0.74 | 0.00 | −1.97 | +0.10 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.25 | 0.00 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.03 | 0.00 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.33 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.48 | 0.00 | −2.24 | −0.08 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 5.53 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | +0.21 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.75 | 7.25 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.32 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.60 | 1.99 | −1.61 | +0.85 | 0.00 | −2.40 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 7.67 | 6.05 | −1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | −0.12 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 8.33 | 6.70 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.29 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 6.33 | 4.64 | −1.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.11 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.31 | −1.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.20 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.27 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.25 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.00 | 4.25 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.04 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 6.67 | 4.92 | −1.75 | +0.77 | 0.00 | −2.67 | +0.15 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.22 | −1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.05 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 2.33 | 0.54 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.12 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 3.50 | 1.70 | −1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | −0.15 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.67 | 7.86 | −1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | −0.07 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 4.67 | 2.86 | −1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.14 | +0.34 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.75 | 2.90 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.62 | −0.24 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.25 | 7.38 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.23 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.67 | 2.80 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.14 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 6.83 | 4.94 | −1.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.08 | +0.19 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 3.28 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.91 | −0.01 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.29 | 8.35 | −1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.11 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 2.33 | 0.34 | −1.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.31 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.00 | 5.00 | −2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.22 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 8.50 | 6.48 | −2.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.29 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.75 | 6.73 | −2.02 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −5.22 | −0.21 |
| Land Power | National Security | 7.25 | 5.18 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.51 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 8.93 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.92 | −0.15 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 6.86 | −2.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.01 | −0.13 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.50 | 4.35 | −2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.22 | +0.07 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.00 | 5.73 | −2.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.18 | −0.09 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.00 | 5.72 | −2.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.13 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.09 | 5.76 | −2.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | −0.40 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.67 | 5.19 | −2.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.25 | −0.23 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 7.75 | 5.24 | −2.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.19 | −0.32 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 6.97 | −2.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.50 | −0.03 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.00 | 6.46 | −2.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.38 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 8.45 | −2.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.53 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 4.32 | −2.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.45 | −0.23 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.25 | 4.55 | −2.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.45 | −0.26 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.60 | 4.86 | −2.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.56 | −0.18 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.67 | 5.89 | −2.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.60 | −0.19 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.25 | 5.31 | −2.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.42 | −0.53 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.00 | 3.04 | −2.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.94 | −0.01 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.75 | 3.74 | −3.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.10 | +0.09 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.80 | 6.73 | −3.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.87 | −0.20 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.40 | 6.08 | −3.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.24 | −0.08 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.25 | 5.83 | −3.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.25 | −0.17 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 5.92 | −3.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.36 | −0.22 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.00 | 7.30 | −3.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.71 | +0.01 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 5.70 | −3.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.51 | −0.28 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.00 | 4.09 | −3.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.80 | −0.11 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.67 | 3.60 | −4.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.07 | 0.00 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 5.18 | −4.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.61 | −0.22 |
Seed 13 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-ken-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.