Round 2030
Round 4 of 20 in simulation 40 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.026 to 6.54.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 6.54 (+0.026)
- In: 6.51
- Rank by index
- 90
- In: 90
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 4
- In: 4
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2.60 | 2.59 | −0.009 | 11 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 6.87 | 6.83 | −0.039 | 8 |
| National Security | 3.58 | 3.56 | −0.017 | 10 |
| Human Capital | 7.60 | 7.73 | +0.128 | 12 |
| Information & Influence | 8.06 | 8.06 | −0.008 | 9 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8.35 | 8.35 | −0.007 | 15 |
| Financial Strength | 7.60 | 7.59 | −0.009 | 20 |
| Production & Innovation | 6.87 | 6.97 | +0.100 | 17 → 16 |
| Trade & Investment | 7.08 | 7.17 | +0.094 | 13 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 125, plus 4 carried in. Maintenance 93. Spent 31 on actions (build 19, buy 6, partner 6). 4 carried over.
- BuildNuclear Deterrence6 credits for 0.13 levelsmcts
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills6 credits for 0.73 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication6 credits for 0.77 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion6 credits for 0.79 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling6 credits for 0.73 levelsmcts_fill
Tiers. Production & Innovation Tier 17 to 16.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | +0.78 | +0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +0.65 | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | +0.43 | +0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | +0.42 | +0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | +0.35 | +0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.03 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +0.14 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 |