Simulation 40
Kenya, tree search, 20 years, seed 40: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 7.18 at the 2026 position, 5.49 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 40
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 36 (median simulation), 29 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 5.49 (−1.68)
- From 7.18
- Rank by index
- 111
- From 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Regional war spillover | 6.47 −0.710 |
| 2028 |
| 6.49 +0.019 | |
| 2029 |
| 6.51 +0.026 | |
| 2030 |
| 6.54 +0.026 | |
| 2031 |
| 6.58 +0.038 | |
| 2032 |
| 6.63 +0.050 | |
| 2033 |
| 6.67 +0.047 | |
| 2034 |
| 6.73 +0.057 | |
| 2035 |
| Core disaster | 6.19 −0.540 |
| 2036 |
| 6.23 +0.037 | |
| 2037 |
| 6.27 +0.039 | |
| 2038 |
| 6.31 +0.048 | |
| 2039 |
| 6.35 +0.036 | |
| 2040 |
| 6.40 +0.050 | |
| 2041 |
| Public service leap | 6.50 +0.097 |
| 2042 |
| 6.61 +0.109 | |
| 2043 |
| Breadbasket failure | 5.73 −0.881 |
| 2044 |
| 5.75 +0.029 | |
| 2045 |
| Severe pandemic | 5.46 −0.298 |
| 2046 |
| 5.49 +0.038 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| National Security | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 |
| Financial Strength | 17 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 26 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.996 | −73.3 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.091 | +79.3 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.008 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.012 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.012 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.007 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.889 | +63.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.584 | +42.1 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.00 | 5.14 | +4.14 | +5.75 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.06 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.00 | 7.84 | +3.84 | +5.06 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.04 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 8.89 | +3.56 | +3.90 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.93 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.00 | 10.11 | +3.11 | +4.43 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.08 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 9.02 | +1.52 | +4.53 | 0.00 | −2.96 | −0.05 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.50 | 5.94 | +1.44 | +3.89 | 0.00 | −2.35 | −0.10 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.00 | 10.28 | +1.28 | +3.43 | 0.00 | −1.95 | −0.20 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.75 | 10.68 | +0.93 | +4.33 | 0.00 | −3.26 | −0.14 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 2.43 | 3.34 | +0.91 | +2.34 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.07 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.00 | 7.85 | +0.85 | +2.17 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.01 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.60 | 1.80 | +0.20 | +1.66 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.07 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.47 | 0.00 | −1.96 | −0.12 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 6.33 | 6.29 | −0.04 | +3.88 | 0.00 | −3.43 | −0.49 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.33 | 7.18 | −0.15 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.18 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 7.33 | −0.17 | +2.83 | 0.00 | −2.82 | −0.18 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.50 | 6.84 | −0.66 | +0.76 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.17 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.33 | 0.42 | −0.91 | +0.32 | 0.00 | −1.13 | −0.10 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.25 | 2.18 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | +0.09 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.67 | 8.48 | −1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.05 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.78 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.02 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 7.77 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.07 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.25 | 0.00 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.06 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.67 | 6.41 | −1.26 | +2.18 | 0.00 | −3.33 | −0.11 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.60 | 2.34 | −1.26 | +1.49 | 0.00 | −2.64 | −0.11 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.69 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.11 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 9.65 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.07 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 3.66 | −1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.07 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 7.67 | 6.09 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.10 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 4.67 | 2.99 | −1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.03 | +0.35 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 6.83 | 5.08 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.96 | +0.21 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 2.33 | 0.51 | −1.82 | +0.55 | 0.00 | −2.23 | −0.14 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 6.67 | 4.84 | −1.83 | +2.43 | 0.00 | −4.35 | +0.09 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.75 | 6.87 | −1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.20 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 7.59 | −1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.89 | −0.02 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.67 | 5.66 | −2.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.92 | −0.10 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.00 | 5.95 | −2.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | −0.13 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.60 | 5.52 | −2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.94 | −0.14 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 2.33 | 0.21 | −2.12 | +1.31 | 0.00 | −3.38 | −0.05 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.29 | 8.15 | −2.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.08 | −0.06 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.75 | 2.53 | −2.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.03 | −0.19 |
| Land Power | National Security | 7.25 | 5.00 | −2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.95 | −0.30 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.67 | 5.36 | −2.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.28 | −0.03 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 8.33 | 5.98 | −2.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.19 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 4.56 | −2.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.35 | −0.09 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 8.55 | −2.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.06 | −0.40 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.75 | 6.29 | −2.46 | +3.53 | 0.00 | −5.85 | −0.14 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 8.50 | 5.98 | −2.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.12 | −0.39 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.67 | 2.06 | −2.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.42 | −0.19 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 5.38 | −2.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.36 | −0.26 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.00 | 8.36 | −2.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.82 | +0.18 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.67 | 5.92 | −2.75 | +0.69 | 0.00 | −3.22 | −0.22 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.80 | 7.04 | −2.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.62 | −0.14 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.00 | 4.22 | −2.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.41 | −0.38 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.25 | 6.42 | −2.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.71 | −0.12 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.00 | 5.16 | −2.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.69 | −0.15 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.50 | 3.66 | −2.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.74 | −0.10 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.00 | 5.07 | −2.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.77 | −0.16 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.75 | 3.78 | −2.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.06 | +0.10 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.00 | 3.00 | −3.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.86 | −0.14 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 6.33 | 3.31 | −3.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.85 | −0.16 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.00 | 5.92 | −3.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.65 | −0.42 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 3.50 | 0.41 | −3.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.98 | −0.11 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.00 | 2.83 | −3.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.14 | −0.03 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 6.22 | −3.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.18 | −0.09 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.09 | 4.64 | −3.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.12 | −0.33 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.40 | 5.93 | −3.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.41 | −0.06 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.25 | 4.68 | −3.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.23 | −0.34 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 7.75 | 3.93 | −3.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.38 | −0.44 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 6.07 | −3.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.68 | −0.26 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.25 | 5.31 | −3.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.66 | −0.28 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 5.38 | −4.12 | +3.08 | 0.00 | −6.55 | −0.65 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 2.86 | −4.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.94 | −0.20 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.25 | 2.35 | −4.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.69 | −0.22 |
Seed 40 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-ken-mcts-tier1. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.