Round 5 · simulation 40 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-mcts-tier1

Round 2031

Round 5 of 20 in simulation 40 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.038 to 6.58.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2031 (the end of 2030) and as it left it.

Capability index: 6.58 (+0.038); In: 6.54
Rank by index: 90; In: 90
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 4; In: 4

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	2.59	2.67	+0.082	11
Strategic Infrastructure	6.83	6.79	−0.039	8
National Security	3.56	3.54	−0.019	10
Human Capital	7.73	7.87	+0.143	12
Information & Influence	8.06	8.12	+0.068	9
Governance & Integrity	8.35	8.34	−0.006	15
Financial Strength	7.59	7.62	+0.029	20
Production & Innovation	6.97	6.96	−0.011	16
Trade & Investment	7.17	7.26	+0.092	13

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2031: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 124, plus 4 carried in. Maintenance 93. Spent 31 on actions (buy 6, partner 25). 4 carried over.

PartnerTechnical & Vocational Skills6 credits for 0.50 levelsmcts
BuyArtificial Intelligence6 credits for 0.89 levelsmcts_fill
PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication6 credits for 0.75 levelsmcts_fill
PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance6 credits for 0.38 levelsmcts_fill
PartnerAlliances & Security Cooperation6 credits for 0.89 levelsmcts_fill

The groups that moved most in 2031, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Invested	Graph
Artificial Intelligence	+0.87	+0.89	−0.02
Technical & Vocational Skills	+0.82	+0.82	0.00
Export Capability & Sophistication	+0.75	+0.76	−0.01
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	+0.43	+0.43	0.00
Alliances & Security Cooperation	+0.42	+0.44	−0.02
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	+0.18	+0.19	−0.01