Round 2041
Round 15 of 20 in simulation 40 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Public service leap, and the index +0.097 to 6.50.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2041 (the end of 2040) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 6.50 (+0.097)
- In: 6.40
- Rank by index
- 90
- In: 91
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 32
- In: 26
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3.59 | 3.87 | +0.287 | 8 → 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5.79 | 5.88 | +0.084 | 9 |
| National Security | 3.29 | 3.30 | +0.005 | 10 |
| Human Capital | 7.59 | 7.64 | +0.050 | 11 |
| Information & Influence | 8.37 | 8.43 | +0.058 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 7.83 | 7.92 | +0.087 | 16 |
| Financial Strength | 7.00 | 7.06 | +0.054 | 22 |
| Production & Innovation | 6.62 | 6.67 | +0.047 | 14 |
| Trade & Investment | 7.53 | 7.73 | +0.203 | 12 → 11 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2041: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 131, plus 26 carried in. Maintenance 93. Spent 33 on actions (build 7, buy 20, partner 7). 32 carried over.
- BuildEconomic Output & Productivity7 credits for 0.39 levelsmcts
- BuyArtificial Intelligence7 credits for 0.77 levelsmcts_fill
- BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing7 credits for 0.62 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing7 credits for 0.77 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerEconomic Leverage & Dependence7 credits for 0.79 levelsmcts_fill
- Upside event: Public service leap S18. +11.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure and readiness, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 8 to 7; Trade & Investment Tier 12 to 11.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | +0.93 | +0.77 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.11 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | +0.82 | +0.77 | 0.00 | +0.06 | 0.00 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | +0.67 | +0.62 | 0.00 | +0.06 | 0.00 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | +0.47 | +0.40 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.05 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | +0.42 | +0.40 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | +0.40 | +0.38 | 0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 |