Simulation 18
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 18: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.59 in 2046; 99 actions over 20 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 18
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 41 (median simulation), 17 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.59 (+1.59)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.05 +0.050 | |
| 2028 |
| Middle East settlement | 16.19 +0.137 |
| 2029 |
| 16.38 +0.190 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.60 +0.218 | |
| 2031 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.42 −0.174 |
| 2032 |
| 16.63 +0.207 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.80 +0.171 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.97 +0.165 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureBreadbasket failure | 16.86 −0.106 |
| 2036 |
| 16.96 +0.099 | |
| 2037 |
| Cryptographic trust break | 16.78 −0.178 |
| 2038 |
| 16.95 +0.165 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.13 +0.185 | |
| 2040 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.88 −0.257 |
| 2041 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.88 +0.008 |
| 2042 |
| 17.05 +0.172 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.17 +0.118 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.30 +0.130 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.46 +0.156 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.59 +0.131 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.379 | −166.0 | −5.20 |
| No shocks | +0.124 | +9.4 | +0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.014 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.028 | −1.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.022 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.058 | +4.3 | +0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.001 | +1.3 | +0.33 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | −0.042 | +0.1 | +1.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.18 | +4.68 | +6.26 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.21 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +6.62 | 0.00 | −1.87 | +0.19 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +8.24 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.24 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +5.61 | 0.00 | −1.96 | +0.74 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.49 | +3.99 | +5.07 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.34 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.96 | +3.96 | +4.27 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.03 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 5.59 | +3.92 | +5.75 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.03 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.84 | +3.84 | +6.58 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.06 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.76 | +3.76 | +4.45 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.33 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.51 | +3.51 | +4.58 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.04 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.51 | +3.51 | +3.89 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.29 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.56 | +3.36 | +4.31 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.16 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 18.66 | +3.33 | +3.92 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.15 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.25 | +3.25 | +3.03 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.39 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.21 | +3.21 | +3.79 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.14 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.53 | +3.20 | +4.33 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.26 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 18.96 | +3.16 | +4.09 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.55 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.33 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.97 | +2.97 | +4.84 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.27 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 19.67 | +2.96 | +3.63 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.37 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 18.96 | +2.96 | +3.52 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.18 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.53 | +2.93 | +4.66 | 0.00 | −1.83 | +0.11 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.43 | +2.93 | +4.05 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.12 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 14.60 | +2.85 | +4.56 | 0.00 | −1.85 | +0.14 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.15 | +2.65 | +3.44 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.16 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.84 | +2.59 | +3.31 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.09 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.74 | +2.49 | +3.97 | 0.00 | −1.57 | +0.10 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.93 | +2.43 | +3.68 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.48 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.09 | +2.42 | +4.98 | 0.00 | −2.70 | +0.14 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 17.01 | +2.34 | +3.24 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.18 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.47 | +2.14 | +3.14 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.25 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.07 | +2.07 | +1.99 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.29 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.18 | +1.98 | +2.93 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.34 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.91 | +1.91 | +2.81 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.39 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.39 | +1.89 | +3.92 | 0.00 | −1.92 | −0.11 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 15.48 | +1.81 | +3.25 | 0.00 | −1.53 | +0.09 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.84 | +1.64 | +2.25 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.44 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.09 | +1.49 | +2.21 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.40 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.40 | +1.40 | +2.28 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.41 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.89 | +1.39 | +2.24 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.20 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.05 | +1.38 | +2.19 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.23 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.16 | +1.36 | +2.48 | 0.00 | −1.38 | +0.26 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 19.25 | +1.25 | +3.18 | 0.00 | −2.06 | +0.13 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 16.98 | +1.23 | +2.26 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.02 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 16.89 | +1.14 | +2.03 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.10 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.33 | +1.00 | +2.12 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.16 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.48 | +0.98 | +2.39 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.06 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.94 | +0.94 | +1.52 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.45 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 16.42 | +0.92 | +2.28 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 17.20 | +0.87 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.07 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 17.12 | +0.79 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 15.04 | +0.79 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.39 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.29 | +0.62 | +0.68 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.11 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.95 | +0.12 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −2.54 | +0.33 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.74 | +0.07 | +0.80 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.28 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.88 | −0.12 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −2.72 | +0.27 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 15.89 | −0.24 | +1.92 | 0.00 | −2.22 | +0.06 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.61 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.63 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.33 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.42 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.16 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.14 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 16.61 | −0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.44 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.23 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 15.66 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.18 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 14.98 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.07 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.24 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | +0.19 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.34 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | +0.04 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 14.86 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.26 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.28 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.13 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 15.28 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | +0.10 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 14.79 | −1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.13 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 14.01 | −1.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.06 | +0.06 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 13.29 | −2.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.08 | +0.04 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 13.19 | −2.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.78 | −0.03 |
Seed 18 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-kor-mcts-score-sum. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.