Simulation 17
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 17: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.40 in 2046; 85 actions over 20 rounds and 2 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 17
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 41 (median simulation), 18 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.40 (+2.40)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 2 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.05 +0.052 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.14 +0.088 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.28 +0.138 | |
| 2030 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 16.35 +0.073 |
| 2031 |
| AI labour shock | 16.27 −0.088 |
| 2032 |
| 16.20 −0.067 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.27 +0.074 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.47 +0.194 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.59 +0.127 | |
| 2036 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 16.72 +0.123 |
| 2037 |
| 16.83 +0.112 | |
| 2038 |
| 16.97 +0.140 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.15 +0.185 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.38 +0.225 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.57 +0.189 | |
| 2042 |
| Clean power threshold | 17.79 +0.217 |
| 2043 |
| 17.97 +0.183 | |
| 2044 |
| 18.13 +0.163 | |
| 2045 |
| 18.29 +0.158 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 18.40 +0.110 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.379 | −166.0 | −5.20 |
| No shocks | +0.124 | +9.4 | +0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.014 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.028 | −1.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.022 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.058 | +4.3 | +0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.001 | +1.3 | +0.33 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | −0.042 | +0.1 | +1.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.68 | +5.18 | +5.01 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.53 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +5.26 | 0.00 | +0.42 | +0.06 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 6.56 | +4.89 | +5.09 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +5.76 | 0.00 | +0.42 | +0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.62 | +4.62 | +3.83 | 0.00 | +0.42 | +0.38 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.95 | +4.62 | +4.67 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.36 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 18.80 | +4.60 | +4.52 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.14 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 19.55 | +4.55 | +4.32 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.55 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +9.55 | 0.00 | +0.67 | +0.20 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.97 | +4.47 | +4.84 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.29 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.42 | −0.01 | −0.29 | +0.25 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +6.58 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.06 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +5.26 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.53 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.23 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.10 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +3.40 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +1.39 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 19.47 | +3.80 | +4.42 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.12 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 20.00 | +3.75 | +4.55 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.17 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +3.72 | 0.00 | +0.86 | +0.02 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 15.25 | +3.50 | +2.29 | 0.00 | +1.01 | +0.20 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +4.21 | 0.00 | +0.45 | +0.04 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +3.94 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.44 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +3.44 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.28 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.62 | +3.02 | +2.76 | −0.01 | +0.10 | +0.16 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.24 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.48 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.88 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.33 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +2.84 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.57 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 20.00 | +2.80 | +1.64 | 0.00 | +1.02 | +0.28 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 16.47 | +2.80 | +2.69 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.28 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 20.00 | +2.75 | +3.31 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.17 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 18.53 | +2.73 | +2.30 | −0.01 | +0.10 | +0.34 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.05 | +2.72 | +2.48 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.28 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 16.97 | +2.72 | +1.76 | −0.01 | +0.08 | +0.88 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.15 | +2.65 | +2.22 | 0.00 | +0.38 | +0.06 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 18.32 | +2.57 | +2.35 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.14 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.51 | +2.51 | +2.13 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +0.25 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 19.17 | +2.50 | +2.20 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.20 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.20 | +2.45 | +2.27 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.21 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.75 | +2.42 | +1.57 | 0.00 | +0.45 | +0.40 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 18.37 | +2.37 | +1.91 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +0.25 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 19.10 | +2.30 | +2.38 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.24 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.11 | +2.11 | +2.21 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.29 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 16.75 | +2.08 | +1.74 | −0.01 | +0.08 | +0.27 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 18.71 | +2.04 | +1.76 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.14 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 20.00 | +2.00 | +1.70 | 0.00 | +0.89 | +0.34 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 17.43 | +1.93 | +2.22 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.04 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.13 | +1.80 | +1.96 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.23 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.03 | +1.53 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.11 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.31 | +1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.03 | +0.15 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.69 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.68 | +0.42 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.86 | +1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.66 | +0.41 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.72 | +1.01 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.43 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.49 | +0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.66 | +0.33 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.99 | +0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.88 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 17.98 | +0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.46 | +0.52 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 17.89 | +0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.66 | +0.23 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.08 | +0.88 | +0.50 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.38 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.17 | +0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.46 | +0.31 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.45 | +0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.65 | +0.05 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.31 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.42 | +0.22 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.83 | +0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.43 | +0.21 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.58 | +0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.46 | +0.12 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 16.86 | +0.36 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.10 | +0.26 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.60 | +0.27 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.43 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.19 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.35 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.52 | +0.19 | +0.43 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.09 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.93 | +0.18 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.34 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.98 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.31 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.04 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.20 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 16.71 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.06 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.53 | +0.03 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.20 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.31 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.14 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.43 | −0.07 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.09 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.93 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.09 |
Seed 17 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-kor-mcts-score-sum. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.