Simulation 18
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 18: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.52 in 2046; 96 actions over 20 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 18
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 50 (median simulation), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.52 (+1.52)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.05 +0.052 | |
| 2028 |
| Middle East settlement | 16.19 +0.137 |
| 2029 |
| 16.40 +0.205 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.63 +0.237 | |
| 2031 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.46 −0.170 |
| 2032 |
| 16.67 +0.204 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.82 +0.148 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.96 +0.147 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureBreadbasket failure | 16.82 −0.144 |
| 2036 |
| 16.93 +0.113 | |
| 2037 |
| Cryptographic trust break | 16.73 −0.197 |
| 2038 |
| 16.92 +0.182 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.11 +0.191 | |
| 2040 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.88 −0.226 |
| 2041 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.89 +0.007 |
| 2042 |
| 17.09 +0.202 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.19 +0.095 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.32 +0.137 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.43 +0.110 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.52 +0.092 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.327 | −160.1 | −5.20 |
| No shocks | +0.152 | +12.6 | +0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.009 | −0.8 | −0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.084 | +6.3 | +0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.025 | +3.0 | +0.33 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.013 | +3.0 | +1.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +6.64 | 0.00 | −1.88 | +0.21 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +9.52 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.25 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.80 | +4.30 | +5.92 | 0.00 | −1.83 | +0.21 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 19.10 | +4.10 | +4.81 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.30 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.98 | +3.98 | +6.55 | 0.00 | −1.98 | +0.28 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.47 | +3.97 | +5.08 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.32 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.90 | +3.90 | +5.74 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.38 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.89 | +3.89 | +6.58 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.10 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.92 | +3.72 | +4.70 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.15 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 19.55 | +3.55 | +4.60 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.07 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.50 | +3.50 | +3.89 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.29 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 19.11 | +3.36 | +4.14 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.22 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 18.65 | +3.32 | +3.92 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.15 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.19 | +3.19 | +3.79 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.14 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.51 | +3.18 | +4.32 | 0.00 | −1.40 | +0.26 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.45 | +3.12 | +3.75 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.01 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.33 | +3.08 | +4.52 | 0.00 | −1.55 | +0.10 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.57 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.32 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.99 | +2.99 | +4.85 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.28 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 18.96 | +2.96 | +3.52 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.18 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.52 | +2.92 | +4.65 | 0.00 | −1.86 | +0.14 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.39 | +2.89 | +4.07 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.16 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 14.62 | +2.87 | +4.55 | 0.00 | −1.85 | +0.17 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.15 | +2.65 | +3.44 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.16 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.83 | +2.58 | +3.31 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.09 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 19.15 | +2.44 | +3.05 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.45 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.08 | +2.41 | +5.01 | 0.00 | −2.72 | +0.13 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.98 | +2.18 | +3.12 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.13 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 15.72 | +2.05 | +3.59 | 0.00 | −1.69 | +0.15 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.98 | +1.98 | +2.81 | 0.00 | −1.31 | +0.47 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 17.96 | +1.96 | +2.15 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.03 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 19.15 | +1.95 | +2.92 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.34 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.92 | +1.92 | +1.99 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.14 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.39 | +1.89 | +3.12 | 0.00 | −1.71 | +0.48 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.30 | +1.80 | +3.85 | 0.00 | −1.94 | −0.11 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.89 | +1.69 | +2.21 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.54 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.11 | +1.51 | +2.17 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.46 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.88 | +1.38 | +2.23 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.20 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.16 | +1.36 | +2.48 | 0.00 | −1.40 | +0.27 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.03 | +1.36 | +2.19 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.23 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.10 | +1.35 | +2.32 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.09 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 19.34 | +1.34 | +3.21 | 0.00 | −2.07 | +0.20 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.34 | +1.34 | +1.94 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.46 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.23 | +1.23 | +2.12 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.40 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.58 | +1.08 | +2.39 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.04 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.66 | +0.99 | +1.88 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.20 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.27 | +0.94 | +2.07 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.16 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 16.41 | +0.91 | +2.28 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 17.14 | +0.81 | +2.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.06 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 16.99 | +0.66 | +1.70 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.21 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 16.93 | +0.26 | +0.34 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.09 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.89 | +0.06 | +2.32 | 0.00 | −2.57 | +0.30 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.83 | −0.17 | +2.31 | 0.00 | −2.75 | +0.27 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 15.92 | −0.21 | +1.91 | 0.00 | −2.23 | +0.11 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.69 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.73 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.15 | −0.52 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −2.14 | −0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 13.60 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.45 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.00 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.35 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.25 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.35 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 16.66 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.20 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.15 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.42 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.22 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 15.63 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.15 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 14.95 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.05 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.39 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.11 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.19 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.15 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.27 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.13 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 15.27 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.10 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 14.75 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | +0.17 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 14.76 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | −0.14 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 14.04 | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.08 | +0.12 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 13.25 | −2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.10 | +0.03 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 13.17 | −2.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.80 | −0.03 |
Seed 18 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-kor-mcts-tier-rank. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.