Simulation 50
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 50: median simulation of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.95 in 2046; 76 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 50
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 18 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.95 (+1.94)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.05 +0.052 | |
| 2028 |
| Hybrid coercion | 15.86 −0.197 |
| 2029 |
| 16.03 +0.170 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.20 +0.174 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.34 +0.135 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.53 +0.192 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.69 +0.168 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.88 +0.186 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.96 +0.082 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.07 +0.105 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.20 +0.132 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.36 +0.157 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.53 +0.172 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.68 +0.154 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.80 +0.123 | |
| 2042 |
| 17.87 +0.068 | |
| 2043 |
| 17.91 +0.031 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 17.92 +0.019 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.94 +0.013 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 17.95 +0.010 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.327 | −160.1 | −5.20 |
| No shocks | +0.152 | +12.6 | +0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.009 | −0.8 | −0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.084 | +6.3 | +0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.025 | +3.0 | +0.33 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.013 | +3.0 | +1.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.55 | +5.05 | +5.09 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.39 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +7.58 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.47 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.12 | +4.62 | +4.64 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.41 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +9.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.17 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 20.00 | +4.25 | +4.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.25 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 20.00 | +4.25 | +4.50 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.18 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +6.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.42 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +6.33 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.43 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 19.26 | +3.93 | +3.93 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.21 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.80 | +3.80 | +3.89 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.13 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 19.69 | +3.69 | +3.63 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.27 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +3.82 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.05 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +3.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.61 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +3.49 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.27 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +3.95 | 0.00 | −0.20 | 0.00 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 19.76 | +3.09 | +2.98 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.32 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +4.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.37 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.51 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.90 | +2.90 | +2.69 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.42 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 20.00 | +2.80 | +3.18 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.53 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 20.00 | +2.75 | +3.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.25 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 16.94 | +2.74 | +2.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.25 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.05 | +2.72 | +2.69 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.28 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.67 | +2.67 | +2.47 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.41 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.66 | +2.66 | +2.22 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.69 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.89 | +2.56 | +2.49 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.32 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.13 | +2.53 | +2.67 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.26 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.76 | +2.51 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.24 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.38 | +2.38 | +2.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 18.84 | +2.34 | +2.44 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.29 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.27 | +2.27 | +2.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.24 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.27 | +2.27 | +1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.39 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 13.91 | +2.16 | +2.34 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.23 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.92 | +2.12 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.21 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 18.78 | +2.11 | +1.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.42 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.36 | +2.03 | +2.06 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.21 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.51 | +2.01 | +2.12 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.14 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 20.00 | +2.00 | +2.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.46 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.60 | +1.93 | +2.63 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.15 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 15.48 | +1.81 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.22 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.93 | +1.60 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.44 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.84 | +1.17 | +1.15 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.23 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 19.12 | +1.12 | +1.74 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.14 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.05 | +1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +1.25 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 16.79 | +0.99 | +0.98 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.22 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 16.75 | +0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.76 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 17.54 | +0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.93 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.76 | +0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.72 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 17.08 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.41 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.66 | +0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.33 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 16.75 | +0.25 | +0.24 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.21 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.31 | +0.18 | +0.76 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.20 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.68 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.56 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 17.16 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 16.84 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.34 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 16.70 | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.30 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 18.43 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.41 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 16.81 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.40 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.45 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.15 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.25 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.35 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 16.09 | −0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.30 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.53 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.29 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.48 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.16 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.03 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.13 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.68 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.11 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 15.12 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.04 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.36 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | 0.00 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.11 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.04 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.29 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.33 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.12 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.42 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.28 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.23 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.09 |
Seed 50 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-kor-mcts-tier-rank. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.