Round 15 · simulation 5 · mcts-m2b.m2b-ken-mcts-index

Round 2041

Round 15 of 20 in simulation 5 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.044 to 7.20.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2041 (the end of 2040) and as it left it.

Capability index
7.20 (+0.044)
In: 7.16
Rank by index
79
In: 80
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
206
In: 185
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology3.864.04+0.1828
Strategic Infrastructure7.187.19+0.0118
National Security4.574.57+0.0069
Human Capital7.957.96+0.01111
Information & Influence8.488.55+0.0658
Governance & Integrity8.558.55+0.00115
Financial Strength7.777.78+0.01021
Production & Innovation7.968.02+0.05612 → 11
Trade & Investment8.098.14+0.05411

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2041: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 171, plus 185 carried in. Maintenance 125. Spent 25 on actions (buy 20, partner 5). 206 carried over.

  • BuyEconomic Output & Productivity5 credits for 0.32 levelsmctsahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 0 per cent
  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing5 credits for 0.50 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing5 credits for 0.60 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyArtificial Intelligence5 credits for 0.59 levelsmcts_fill
  • PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication5 credits for 0.56 levelsmcts_fill

Tiers. Production & Innovation Tier 12 to 11.

The groups that moved most in 2041, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Artificial Intelligence+0.70+0.590.000.00+0.11
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing+0.60+0.600.000.000.00
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+0.50+0.500.000.000.00
Economic Output & Productivity+0.34+0.320.000.00+0.02
Alliances & Security Cooperation+0.32+0.320.000.000.00
Export Capability & Sophistication+0.28+0.280.000.000.00