Simulation 1
South Korea, tree search, 10 years, seed 1: median simulation of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.07 in 2036; 50 actions over 10 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 1
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 10 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 7 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2036.
- Capability index
- 17.07 (+1.06)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 5
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.041 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.12 +0.075 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.22 +0.103 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.37 +0.145 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.48 +0.109 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.62 +0.142 | |
| 2033 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.60 −0.016 |
| 2034 |
| 16.76 +0.161 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.90 +0.133 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.07 +0.169 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.273 | −84.5 | −4.67 |
| No shocks | +0.256 | +19.3 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.026 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.026 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | −0.33 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.247 | +17.7 | +0.67 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2036 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.69 | +5.19 | +5.21 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.26 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.26 | +4.76 | +4.85 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.17 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +7.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.04 | +3.71 | +3.75 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.12 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.62 | +3.62 | +4.27 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.17 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.52 | +3.52 | +3.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.48 | +3.28 | +3.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.50 | +3.25 | +3.38 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.03 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.37 | +3.04 | +3.16 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.04 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.64 | +2.97 | +3.49 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.02 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.94 | +2.94 | +3.03 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.05 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.59 | +2.59 | +2.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.03 | +2.53 | +2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.38 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.45 | +2.45 | +2.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.87 | +2.37 | +2.49 | 0.00 | −0.12 | 0.00 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.20 | +2.20 | +1.98 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.38 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 16.77 | +1.77 | +1.61 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.29 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.15 | +1.55 | +1.73 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.08 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.71 | +1.51 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.17 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 13.21 | +1.46 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.16 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.23 | +1.43 | +1.53 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.21 | +1.41 | +1.58 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.10 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.36 | +1.36 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 18.51 | +1.26 | +1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.59 | +1.26 | +1.32 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.10 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 17.70 | +1.20 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.02 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.20 | +1.20 | +1.09 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.24 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.70 | +1.20 | +1.36 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 14.72 | +1.05 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.01 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.20 | +0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.33 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.39 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.27 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 16.81 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.43 | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 16.68 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.21 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 17.08 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.32 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 16.56 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.19 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 18.45 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.29 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.38 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.33 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 16.83 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.27 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.01 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 17.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 17.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 15.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 16.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 16.70 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.12 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.47 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.09 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 16.28 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.20 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.60 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 16.59 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.05 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.40 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.15 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 14.56 | −0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.03 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 16.20 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.87 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 15.62 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 14.86 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | 0.00 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 14.86 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | 0.00 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 15.19 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | 0.00 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 17.00 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.07 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.54 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.06 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.98 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.04 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.10 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.04 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.26 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.01 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.50 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | 0.00 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 15.25 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.02 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.41 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.01 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.23 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | 0.00 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.72 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.46 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.18 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 15.73 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.09 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 17.58 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.06 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.53 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.07 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.46 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | 0.00 |
Seed 1 of experiment mcts-m4.m4-kor-mcts-index-10y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.