Simulation 10
South Korea, tree search, 10 years, seed 10: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 16.57 in 2036; 50 actions over 10 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 10
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (median simulation), 7 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2036.
- Capability index
- 16.57 (+0.57)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 3
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 5
- From 2
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Breadbasket failure | 15.83 −0.170 |
| 2028 |
| 15.90 +0.073 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.02 +0.112 | |
| 2030 |
| Hybrid coercion | 15.83 −0.188 |
| 2031 |
| 15.95 +0.116 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.10 +0.152 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.24 +0.144 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.38 +0.143 | |
| 2035 |
| AI labour shock | 16.44 +0.054 |
| 2036 |
| Middle East settlement | 16.57 +0.136 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.273 | −84.5 | −4.67 |
| No shocks | +0.256 | +19.3 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.026 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.026 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | −0.33 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.247 | +17.7 | +0.67 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2036 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.93 | +4.43 | +6.16 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −0.01 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.68 | +4.18 | +5.02 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.17 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.28 | +3.28 | +4.44 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.13 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 17.77 | +3.27 | +3.84 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.30 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.18 | +3.18 | +3.53 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.02 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.29 | +2.96 | +3.64 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.06 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.06 | +2.86 | +3.20 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.05 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.85 | +2.85 | +3.50 | 0.00 | −0.32 | 0.00 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.85 | +2.60 | +3.58 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.02 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.50 | +2.50 | +3.17 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.05 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.33 | +2.33 | +2.64 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.01 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.61 | +2.28 | +2.99 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.02 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.86 | +2.26 | +2.99 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.03 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.19 | +2.19 | +2.31 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.12 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.42 | +2.17 | +2.41 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −0.03 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 17.73 | +2.06 | +3.58 | 0.00 | −1.52 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.41 | +1.91 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.18 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.34 | +1.84 | +2.44 | 0.00 | −0.60 | 0.00 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.57 | +1.57 | +2.10 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.20 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.31 | +1.11 | +1.49 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.14 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 16.81 | +1.01 | +1.54 | 0.00 | −0.52 | −0.01 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 17.78 | +0.98 | +1.66 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.14 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 17.96 | +0.96 | +1.72 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.04 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.29 | +0.96 | +1.59 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.09 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 12.70 | +0.95 | +1.58 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.10 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.86 | +0.86 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.08 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 17.12 | +0.62 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.16 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.07 | +0.57 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.10 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.21 | +0.21 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.05 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.60 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 16.52 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.08 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 13.98 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.27 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.67 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.27 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.67 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.25 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 14.65 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.02 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 16.35 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.16 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 15.95 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.16 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 16.22 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.18 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.61 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | −0.03 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 16.27 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | −0.03 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 14.92 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.02 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 15.34 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.03 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.58 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.04 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 16.07 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.09 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 14.57 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.04 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 16.05 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.16 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 16.53 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | −0.10 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 15.85 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.01 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.00 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.01 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.50 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.02 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 15.82 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.09 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 14.16 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.02 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.24 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.03 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 15.79 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.14 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 14.77 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.01 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 14.44 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.23 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 16.11 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.04 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.81 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.07 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.38 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.07 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.57 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.01 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 15.10 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.04 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.83 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.12 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.00 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.10 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 14.97 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.02 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 16.46 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | 0.00 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.76 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.06 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 16.05 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.13 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.00 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.15 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 14.67 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.02 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.06 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.72 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.13 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 14.90 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.05 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 14.90 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.05 |
Seed 10 of experiment mcts-m4.m4-kor-mcts-index-10y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.