Simulation 1
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 1: median simulation of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.09 in 2046; 90 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 1
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 7 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.09 (+1.09)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | 16.00 0.000 | |
| 2028 | No actions | 16.00 0.000 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.04 +0.041 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.11 +0.068 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.20 +0.089 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.33 +0.133 | |
| 2033 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.27 −0.063 |
| 2034 |
| 16.41 +0.142 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.56 +0.148 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.66 +0.094 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.78 +0.126 | |
| 2038 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.48 −0.297 |
| 2039 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.02 −0.467 |
| 2040 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 16.17 +0.157 |
| 2041 |
| 16.35 +0.175 | |
| 2042 |
| 16.49 +0.140 | |
| 2043 |
| 16.62 +0.130 | |
| 2044 |
| 16.79 +0.171 | |
| 2045 |
| 16.93 +0.136 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.09 +0.166 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.349 | −162.8 | −6.33 |
| No shocks | +0.595 | +43.5 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.016 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.021 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.015 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.016 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.233 | +17.1 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.272 | +20.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.179 | +14.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.44 | +4.94 | +5.42 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.20 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +7.22 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.08 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 19.82 | +4.49 | +6.78 | 0.00 | −2.50 | +0.21 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.63 | +4.13 | +4.62 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.24 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.93 | +3.93 | +6.46 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.99 | +3.79 | +4.68 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.15 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 19.37 | +3.70 | +4.68 | 0.00 | −0.98 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.41 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.24 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.00 | +3.00 | +3.91 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.07 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.87 | +2.87 | +3.27 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.05 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.67 | +2.67 | +2.55 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.20 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 14.39 | +2.64 | +4.62 | 0.00 | −2.13 | +0.14 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.62 | +2.62 | +3.28 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.29 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.57 | +2.57 | +3.28 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.47 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.55 | +2.55 | +2.26 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.43 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.67 | +2.42 | +3.52 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.10 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 18.70 | +2.37 | +2.56 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.56 | +2.31 | +2.34 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.06 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 18.77 | +2.27 | +3.91 | 0.00 | −1.95 | +0.31 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 17.20 | +2.20 | +2.62 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.01 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.41 | +2.08 | +3.24 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.05 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 19.57 | +2.07 | +4.62 | 0.00 | −2.39 | −0.15 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.85 | +1.85 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −1.18 | 0.00 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.25 | +1.75 | +2.89 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.20 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.00 | +1.67 | +2.69 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.14 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.13 | +1.63 | +2.49 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.05 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.69 | +1.49 | +1.44 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.25 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.66 | +1.46 | +2.10 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.15 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.97 | +1.37 | +1.82 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.13 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.69 | +1.36 | +2.25 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.14 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 17.32 | +1.32 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.02 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.30 | +1.30 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.03 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.77 | +1.27 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.26 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.05 | +1.25 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.11 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.88 | +1.17 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.18 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 17.95 | +1.15 | +1.66 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.17 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.01 | +1.01 | +1.32 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.38 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 15.99 | +0.99 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.11 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 16.92 | +0.92 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.06 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 16.21 | +0.88 | +1.33 | 0.00 | −0.46 | 0.00 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.53 | +0.86 | +1.23 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.07 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.41 | +0.81 | +1.51 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.21 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 16.44 | +0.69 | +1.60 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.04 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 16.37 | +0.62 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.09 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.01 | +0.51 | +1.65 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.13 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 17.18 | +0.51 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.08 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.53 | +0.40 | +2.55 | 0.00 | −2.25 | +0.10 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.04 | +0.04 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.09 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 16.62 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.07 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.18 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.37 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.21 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.11 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.37 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.03 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.62 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.53 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.22 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.14 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 16.31 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.30 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.75 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.33 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 14.85 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.05 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.34 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.34 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 16.22 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 15.45 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.06 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.85 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.09 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.74 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | 0.00 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.19 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.10 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 15.26 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.28 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 12.39 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.13 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 15.44 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.03 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 14.37 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | +0.18 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.04 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.11 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 14.52 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | +0.16 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 14.88 | −1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | +0.14 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 13.64 | −2.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.44 | +0.08 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 12.85 | −2.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.47 | −0.01 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 13.23 | −2.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.72 | −0.05 |
Seed 1 of experiment mcts-m5.m5-kor-mcts-graph-leverage. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.