Simulation 7
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 7: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 16.91 in 2046; 85 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 7
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (median simulation), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 16.91 (+0.91)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 5
- From 2
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | 16.00 0.000 | |
| 2028 | No actions | Water-efficient food leap | 16.03 +0.029 |
| 2029 |
| 16.10 +0.070 | |
| 2030 | No actions | Debt service reset | 16.16 +0.062 |
| 2031 |
| 16.26 +0.097 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.40 +0.138 | |
| 2033 |
| 16.55 +0.157 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.68 +0.127 | |
| 2035 |
| Global funding seizure | 16.69 +0.011 |
| 2036 |
| 16.86 +0.164 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.94 +0.087 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.02 +0.080 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.10 +0.077 | |
| 2040 |
| AI labour shock | 17.11 +0.012 |
| 2041 |
| Core disaster | 16.84 −0.275 |
| 2042 |
| 16.88 +0.040 | |
| 2043 |
| 16.98 +0.098 | |
| 2044 |
| 17.07 +0.099 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.20 +0.129 | |
| 2046 |
| Regional war spilloverBreadbasket failure | 16.91 −0.293 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.349 | −162.8 | −6.33 |
| No shocks | +0.595 | +43.5 | +0.67 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.016 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.021 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.015 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.016 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.233 | +17.1 | +0.33 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.272 | +20.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.179 | +14.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 19.60 | +4.10 | +6.50 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.13 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 18.84 | +3.51 | +3.81 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.09 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 17.84 | +3.34 | +3.83 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.30 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.31 | +3.31 | +4.51 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.03 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.44 | +3.24 | +4.44 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.15 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.88 | +3.21 | +4.29 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.05 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 17.46 | +2.96 | +3.69 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.22 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.40 | +2.40 | +3.08 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.11 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.36 | +2.36 | +2.82 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.05 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 17.35 | +2.35 | +2.53 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.22 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.32 | +2.32 | +2.59 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.33 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 17.27 | +2.27 | +2.60 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.09 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.25 | +2.25 | +2.28 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.50 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 17.45 | +2.12 | +3.84 | 0.00 | −1.88 | +0.16 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 18.06 | +2.06 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.36 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 18.05 | +2.05 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.13 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.23 | +1.98 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.07 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 16.95 | +1.95 | +3.18 | 0.00 | −1.54 | +0.32 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 16.58 | +1.91 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.10 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 18.15 | +1.82 | +2.23 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.01 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.46 | +1.71 | +2.82 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.01 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 13.43 | +1.68 | +2.88 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.09 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 17.86 | +1.61 | +3.32 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.08 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 17.90 | +1.57 | +3.06 | 0.00 | −1.62 | +0.14 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.71 | +1.51 | +1.38 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.43 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.43 | +1.43 | +1.81 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.24 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.36 | +1.36 | +2.62 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.13 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.92 | +1.32 | +1.73 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.06 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 17.80 | +1.30 | +3.45 | 0.00 | −2.35 | +0.21 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.06 | +1.26 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.25 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 16.99 | +1.24 | +2.55 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.06 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 17.68 | +1.18 | +2.65 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.05 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.67 | +1.17 | +1.40 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.22 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 17.66 | +1.16 | +2.31 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.11 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.09 | +1.09 | +2.07 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.41 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.79 | +1.08 | +1.35 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.18 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 18.26 | +1.06 | +1.74 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.18 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 17.81 | +1.01 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.37 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.00 | +1.00 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.23 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.37 | +0.77 | +1.41 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.19 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.06 | +0.56 | +1.53 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.12 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 16.82 | +0.49 | +1.08 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.25 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 17.15 | +0.48 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.14 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.35 | +0.35 | +1.10 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.20 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.22 | +0.22 | +0.90 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.11 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 17.41 | +0.08 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −1.38 | +0.12 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.21 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.43 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 17.42 | −0.08 | +2.28 | 0.00 | −2.36 | +0.01 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.54 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.22 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.15 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 15.35 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.22 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.33 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.31 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 15.73 | −0.40 | +1.16 | 0.00 | −1.58 | +0.02 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 15.93 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.22 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.41 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.20 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.57 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.19 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.94 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.32 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.24 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.10 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.48 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.58 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 15.93 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.04 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 16.06 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.14 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 14.78 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.07 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.44 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.07 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.94 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.04 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.18 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.33 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.16 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.14 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 15.89 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.19 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.08 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.06 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 14.40 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.07 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 15.41 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.24 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 15.36 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | +0.08 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 14.94 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.12 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 15.50 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.13 |
Seed 7 of experiment mcts-m5.m5-kor-mcts-graph-leverage. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.