A good simulation (90th percentile) · cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-allocation

Simulation 3

South Korea, evolution strategy, 20 years, seed 3: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 5. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.36 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 3

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 4 (median simulation), 1 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 18.36 (+2.36); From 16.00
Rank by index: 1; From 6
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 1 shock; 2 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the evolution strategy (cma-es) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 30 Build Advanced Education 30 Build Digital & AI Competence 30 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 30		16.04 +0.036
2028	Build Advanced Education 30 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 30 Build Digital & AI Competence 30 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 30 Build Financial System Depth & Access 30		16.08 +0.043
2029	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 30 Build Foundational Education 30 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 30 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 30 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 30	AI labour shock	16.04 −0.041
2030	Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 31 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 31 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 31 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 31 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 31		16.09 +0.048
2031	Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 27 Build Economic Output & Productivity 27 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 27 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 27 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 27		16.09 +0.007
2032	Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 27 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 27 Build Economic Output & Productivity 27 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 27 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 27	Market access opening	16.30 +0.210
2033	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 31 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 31 Buy Artificial Intelligence 31 Partner Digital & Services Trade 31 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 31		16.48 +0.173
2034	Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 33 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 33 Build Population Health 33 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 33 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 33		16.65 +0.173
2035	Build Population Health 33 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 33 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 33 Build Financial Infrastructure 33 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 33		16.72 +0.073
2036	Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 33 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 33 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 33 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 33 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 33		16.82 +0.095
2037	Build Labour & Employment 33 Build Resource Infrastructure 33 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 33 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 33 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 33		16.91 +0.096
2038	Build Labour & Employment 33 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 33 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 33 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 33 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 33		17.01 +0.099
2039	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 33 Partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 33 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 33 Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 33 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 33		17.14 +0.121
2040	Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 33 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 33 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 33 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 33 Build Health System Capability 33		17.29 +0.157
2041	Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 33 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 33 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 33 Partner Space Technologies 33 Build Health System Capability 33		17.39 +0.103
2042	Build Diaspora & Global Communities 33 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 33 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 33 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 33 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 33	Clean power threshold	17.62 +0.227
2043	Build Diaspora & Global Communities 33 Buy Energy Infrastructure 33 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 33 Buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies 32 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 32		17.84 +0.215
2044	Build Information Environment & Strategic Communication 35 Partner Financial Stability & Crisis Management 35 Partner Digital & Services Trade 35 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 35 Build Financial System Depth & Access 34		18.04 +0.199
2045	Partner Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 35 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 35 Build Digital & Services Trade 33 Partner Energy Technologies 33 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 32		18.22 +0.186
2046	Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 2 Buy Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 2 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1 Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 1		18.36 +0.136

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	5	5	4	3	2	3	3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	19.72	+4.72	+3.76	+0.52	+0.43
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	20.00	+4.67	+4.90	+0.53	+0.11
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	20.00	+4.50	+4.96	+0.72	+0.07
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	18.69	+4.49	+4.15	+0.16	+0.18
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	18.93	+4.43	+4.29	−0.09	+0.23
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	20.00	+4.25	+4.03	+0.17	+0.21
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	19.19	+4.19	+3.46	+0.52	+0.21
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+6.44	−0.06	+0.08
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+4.37	−0.09	+0.28
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+3.71	+0.30	+0.12
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	18.36	+3.86	+3.58	−0.09	+0.37
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	19.16	+3.83	+3.32	+0.21	+0.30
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	19.44	+3.77	+4.09	−0.55	+0.24
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	20.00	+3.75	+3.74	−0.07	+0.13
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	19.45	+3.70	+3.06	+0.31	+0.34
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	20.00	+3.67	+3.57	+1.06	+0.02
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	20.00	+3.67	+3.06	+0.47	+0.29
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	18.55	+3.55	+3.29	−0.15	+0.42
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	20.00	+3.50	+2.76	+0.83	+0.17
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	19.22	+3.22	+2.87	+0.20	+0.15
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+3.42	−0.06	+0.24
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	20.00	+3.00	+2.24	+0.70	+0.13
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	14.68	+2.93	+1.53	+1.05	+0.35
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.91	+2.91	+1.97	+0.47	+0.47
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	19.32	+2.82	+2.31	+0.31	+0.20
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	18.27	+2.77	+2.83	−0.09	+0.04
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	19.18	+2.68	+2.48	−0.28	+0.49
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	19.34	+2.67	+2.26	+0.21	+0.20
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	19.65	+2.65	+2.52	−0.07	+0.19
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	18.94	+2.61	+2.14	+0.18	+0.29
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	18.80	+2.60	+1.86	+0.53	+0.21
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	18.66	+2.53	+1.07	+1.31	+0.15
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	19.68	+2.48	+1.04	+1.07	+0.37
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	19.11	+2.44	+1.85	+0.18	+0.41
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.87	+2.37	+1.58	+0.55	+0.25
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.72	+2.12	+1.89	+0.20	+0.04
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.11	+2.11	+1.52	+0.23	+0.37
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	18.64	+1.97	+1.42	+0.31	+0.23
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	19.47	+1.97	+1.30	+0.48	+0.19
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.51	+1.91	+1.02	+0.71	+0.18
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	17.70	+1.90	+1.54	+0.19	+0.17
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	17.87	+1.87	+1.28	+0.19	+0.40
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	18.64	+1.84	+1.57	−0.08	+0.35
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	18.16	+1.83	+1.12	+0.55	+0.16
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	17.79	+1.79	+1.95	−0.26	+0.09
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	17.99	+1.79	+1.43	+0.19	+0.16
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	18.84	+1.59	+1.21	+0.21	+0.18
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	18.27	+1.56	+1.11	+0.20	+0.26
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	16.22	+1.55	+1.24	+0.18	+0.13
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	19.44	+1.44	+0.49	+0.32	+0.63
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	19.30	+1.30	0.00	+0.83	+0.47
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	19.58	+1.18	0.00	+0.55	+0.63
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	17.63	+1.13	0.00	+0.79	+0.34
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	17.44	+1.11	+0.91	0.00	+0.21
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	18.08	+1.08	0.00	+0.55	+0.54
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	16.49	+0.82	0.00	+0.53	+0.29
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	18.80	+0.80	0.00	+0.55	+0.24
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	17.58	+0.78	0.00	+0.55	+0.23
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	16.34	+0.59	0.00	+0.55	+0.05
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	17.58	+0.58	0.00	+0.21	+0.37
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	14.77	+0.52	0.00	+0.18	+0.34
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	17.76	+0.43	0.00	+0.23	+0.21
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	17.93	+0.43	+0.04	+0.20	+0.18
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	16.92	+0.42	0.00	+0.20	+0.22
Air Power	National Security	16.75	17.03	+0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.28
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	16.18	+0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.18
Land Power	National Security	16.50	16.66	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.16
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	13.83	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.16
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	16.15	+0.15	0.00	0.00	+0.15
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	16.15	+0.15	0.00	0.00	+0.15
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	15.94	+0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.10
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	15.43	+0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.10
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	1.66	−0.01	0.00	0.00	−0.01

Seed 3 of experiment cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-allocation. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.