Simulation 1
South Korea, evolution strategy, 20 years, seed 1: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 5. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.21 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 1
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 4 (median simulation), 3 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.21 (+1.21)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 2
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the evolution strategy (cma-es) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.04 +0.041 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.11 +0.064 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.19 +0.080 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.34 +0.151 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.49 +0.154 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.65 +0.157 | |
| 2033 |
| Hybrid coercion | 16.58 −0.072 |
| 2034 |
| 16.70 +0.118 | |
| 2035 |
| 16.77 +0.076 | |
| 2036 |
| 16.86 +0.087 | |
| 2037 |
| 16.95 +0.092 | |
| 2038 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.67 −0.278 |
| 2039 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.22 −0.451 |
| 2040 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 16.40 +0.176 |
| 2041 |
| 16.53 +0.136 | |
| 2042 |
| 16.68 +0.148 | |
| 2043 |
| 16.81 +0.133 | |
| 2044 |
| 16.96 +0.152 | |
| 2045 |
| 17.10 +0.132 | |
| 2046 |
| 17.21 +0.116 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +5.09 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.10 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +5.18 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.17 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 20.00 | +4.33 | +5.13 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.20 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.79 | +4.29 | +4.97 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.10 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.58 | +4.08 | +4.63 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.17 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.99 | +3.99 | +4.77 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.83 | +3.83 | +3.90 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.34 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 19.57 | +3.57 | +3.77 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.21 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 18.51 | +3.51 | +3.70 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.21 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.45 | +3.12 | +5.38 | 0.00 | −2.49 | +0.23 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.21 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.53 | +2.78 | +3.64 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.09 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.77 | +2.77 | +2.87 | 0.00 | −0.09 | 0.00 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 14.49 | +2.74 | +4.62 | 0.00 | −2.03 | +0.15 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.67 | +2.67 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.23 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.65 | +2.65 | +3.19 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.37 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 18.70 | +2.37 | +2.56 | 0.00 | −0.19 | 0.00 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 16.55 | +2.35 | +3.29 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.09 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 18.34 | +2.34 | +3.29 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.04 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.82 | +2.32 | +3.48 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.23 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 19.49 | +2.24 | +2.30 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.03 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 17.99 | +2.24 | +3.03 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.15 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 18.03 | +2.23 | +2.48 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.17 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 18.46 | +2.13 | +3.15 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.18 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.76 | +2.09 | +2.88 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.13 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 16.75 | +2.08 | +2.42 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.08 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.49 | +1.99 | +2.81 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.08 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 17.46 | +1.96 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.05 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 17.55 | +1.88 | +2.21 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.23 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.62 | +1.82 | +2.30 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.20 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 17.55 | +1.55 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.41 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 18.52 | +1.52 | +1.36 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.26 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 17.46 | +1.46 | +1.91 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.01 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.96 | +1.36 | +1.86 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.07 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 17.58 | +1.25 | +2.30 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.04 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 18.22 | +1.22 | +1.99 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.06 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.18 | +1.18 | +1.97 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.38 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.27 | +1.07 | +1.10 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.16 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.65 | +0.98 | +1.11 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.17 | +0.84 | +2.03 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.03 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.34 | +0.84 | +1.65 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.15 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 16.96 | +0.71 | +1.83 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.06 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 17.55 | +0.55 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.21 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 17.70 | +0.50 | +1.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.30 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 17.15 | +0.48 | +1.19 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.21 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.72 | +0.39 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.02 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.21 | +0.21 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.10 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.93 | +0.18 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.09 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 16.63 | +0.13 | +1.71 | 0.00 | −2.00 | +0.42 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.02 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.20 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 16.46 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.16 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.37 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.03 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 16.19 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.11 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.16 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.07 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.65 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.34 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 17.60 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.50 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.04 | −0.46 | +0.98 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.10 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 17.67 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.24 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 16.04 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.02 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 15.77 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.08 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 16.07 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.07 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 15.09 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.01 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 16.39 | −1.11 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −2.37 | −0.13 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 12.38 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.12 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 15.44 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.02 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 14.96 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.03 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 14.53 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.16 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 14.29 | −1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | +0.09 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 14.75 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | +0.01 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 13.95 | −2.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.24 | +0.06 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 13.66 | −2.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.42 | +0.09 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 12.84 | −2.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.45 | −0.04 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 13.24 | −2.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.70 | −0.05 |
Seed 1 of experiment cmaes-c1.c1-kor-cmaes-allocation. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.