Simulation 1
Estonia, evolution strategy, 4 years, seed 1: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 2. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 11.79 in 2030; 20 actions over 4 rounds and 0 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 1
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 2 (median simulation)
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2030.
- Capability index
- 11.79 (+0.30)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 30
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 0 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the evolution strategy (cma-es) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.53 +0.043 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.60 +0.073 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.69 +0.083 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.79 +0.104 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 1 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.302 | −19.8 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.009 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.010 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.009 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.011 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.017 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2030 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 5.58 | +2.91 | +2.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 4.86 | +2.36 | +2.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 15.79 | +2.29 | +2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 13.25 | +1.92 | +1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 13.51 | +1.84 | +1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 15.24 | +1.74 | +1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 9.15 | +1.65 | +1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 9.95 | +1.55 | +1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 11.41 | +1.41 | +1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 9.21 | +0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.88 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 12.40 | +0.40 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.02 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.35 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 4.79 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.19 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 9.92 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 12.72 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 13.05 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 6.78 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 6.03 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 4.03 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 14.53 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 14.87 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 5.68 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 5.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 4.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 5.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 10.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 8.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 7.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 11.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 8.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 11.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 10.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 12.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 13.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 13.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 13.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 11.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 8.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 9.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 6.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 12.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 14.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 13.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 14.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 12.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 13.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 14.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 11.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 16.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 15.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 14.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 14.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 17.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 16.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 14.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 14.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 14.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 12.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 14.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 13.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 10.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 13.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 11.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 14.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 12.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 13.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 14.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Seed 1 of experiment cmaes-dev.dev-est-cmaes-receding. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.