Median simulation · cycle-002.e4-ukr

Simulation 23

Ukraine, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 23: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.65 at the 1996 position, 4.93 in 2026; 97 actions over 30 rounds and 10 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 23

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 11 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 4.93 (−4.72); From 9.65
Rank by index: 120; From 50
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 10 shocks; 2 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Foundational Education 6 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6		9.66 +0.006
1998	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Foundational Education 6 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6	Global funding seizure	9.42 −0.239
1999	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Foundational Education 6 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6		9.43 +0.012
2000	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Foundational Education 6 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6		9.44 +0.012
2001	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 6 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Foundational Education 6 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6		9.46 +0.016
2002	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6		9.48 +0.021
2003	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6		9.51 +0.025
2004	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6	Legitimacy rupture	9.34 −0.166
2005	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6		9.36 +0.022
2006	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6		9.38 +0.017
2007	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6		9.40 +0.017
2008	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6	Global funding seizure	9.08 −0.319
2009	Buy Energy Infrastructure 6 Buy Resource Infrastructure 6 Buy Internal Security & Order 6 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6		9.09 +0.010
2010	Buy Energy Infrastructure 5 Buy Resource Infrastructure 5 Buy Internal Security & Order 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5		9.09 +0.004
2011	Buy Energy Infrastructure 5 Buy Resource Infrastructure 5 Buy Internal Security & Order 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5		9.10 +0.005
2012	Buy Energy Infrastructure 5 Buy Resource Infrastructure 5 Buy Internal Security & Order 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5		9.10 +0.005
2013	Buy Energy Infrastructure 5 Buy Resource Infrastructure 5 Buy Internal Security & Order 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5		9.11 +0.005
2014	Partner Land Power 12 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 12 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 12 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 12 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 12	Regional war spilloverLegitimacy ruptureGlobal funding seizure	7.99 −1.113
2015	Partner Land Power 12 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 12 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 12 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 12 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 12		8.00 +0.004
2016	Partner Land Power 8 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 8 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 8 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8		8.00 −0.002
2017	Partner Land Power 8 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 8 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 8 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8		8.00 0.000
2018	Partner Land Power 8 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 8 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 8 Partner Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2		7.99 −0.006
2019	No actions		7.95 −0.044
2020	No actions	Severe pandemic	7.38 −0.564
2021	No actions		7.32 −0.067
2022	No actions	Regional war spilloverBreadbasket failureHybrid coercionDebt service resetMarket access opening	5.46 −1.860
2023	No actions		5.34 −0.118
2024	No actions		5.20 −0.142
2025	No actions		5.06 −0.140
2026	No actions		4.93 −0.128

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Strategic Infrastructure	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	6	6	6	6	6
National Security	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7
Human Capital	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	9	9	9	9	10
Information & Influence	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	16	16	16	16	16
Governance & Integrity	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	13	13	15	14	13	13	13	13	13	13	17	17	17	17	17
Financial Strength	19	19	19	19	19	19	18	18	20	19	19	19	21	21	21	21	21	21	28	28	28	28	28	28	32	32	42	42	42	42	42
Production & Innovation	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	12	12	13	13	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	15	15	17	17	17	18	18
Trade & Investment	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	15	16	16	16	17

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.468	−33.1
No shocks	+5.724	+413.5
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.015	+1.1
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.015	+1.1
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.011	+0.7
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.001	+0.1
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.003	+0.2
Without the 1st largest shock	+1.350	+99.7
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.848	+61.5
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.443	+33.1

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.69	9.62	−1.07	+4.15	−0.35	−4.55	−0.32
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.40	7.27	−1.13	+2.23	−0.29	−2.70	−0.37
Foundational Education	Human Capital	13.83	12.47	−1.36	+1.53	−0.68	−1.73	−0.48
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	2.06	0.00	−2.06	0.00	0.00	−4.03	−0.03
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.39	9.32	−2.07	0.00	−0.51	−1.60	+0.05
Advanced Education	Human Capital	13.60	11.31	−2.29	0.00	−0.62	−1.58	−0.09
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.77	8.43	−2.34	0.00	−0.47	−1.66	−0.21
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	11.64	9.19	−2.45	0.00	−0.51	−1.64	−0.31
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	11.17	8.59	−2.58	0.00	−0.48	−1.65	−0.45
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.24	6.53	−2.71	+1.65	−0.29	−3.78	−0.29
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	5.52	−2.82	0.00	−0.18	−2.65	+0.01
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.61	7.78	−2.83	+3.20	−1.39	−4.30	−0.34
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	13.65	10.66	−2.99	0.00	−0.60	−1.81	−0.59
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	8.21	5.22	−2.99	+2.87	−0.64	−4.57	−0.66
Population Health	Human Capital	9.18	6.16	−3.02	0.00	−0.24	−2.34	−0.44
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.34	6.12	−3.22	+2.56	−0.73	−4.56	−0.48
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.12	7.88	−3.24	+2.12	−0.94	−3.84	−0.57
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.11	4.80	−3.31	0.00	−0.16	−3.01	−0.14
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.47	5.11	−3.36	0.00	−0.17	−3.05	−0.14
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	5.01	−3.43	0.00	−0.17	−3.05	−0.21
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.74	1.31	−3.43	0.00	−0.33	−3.01	−0.09
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.03	7.55	−3.48	0.00	−0.43	−2.36	−0.70
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.34	8.66	−3.68	+1.06	−0.78	−3.56	−0.41
Land Power	National Security	12.53	8.80	−3.73	+1.98	−1.55	−3.47	−0.69
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	2.33	−3.94	0.00	−0.55	−3.29	−0.10
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	7.93	3.85	−4.08	0.00	−0.85	−2.87	−0.36
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	9.69	5.58	−4.11	0.00	−1.19	−2.79	−0.13
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	9.72	5.42	−4.30	0.00	−1.17	−2.79	−0.34
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.20	4.89	−4.31	0.00	−0.63	−3.67	−0.02
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	9.58	5.11	−4.47	0.00	−1.12	−2.79	−0.56
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.85	4.34	−4.51	0.00	−0.57	−3.69	−0.25
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.61	4.07	−4.54	0.00	−0.93	−2.84	−0.78
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	5.62	1.06	−4.56	0.00	−0.19	−3.83	−0.54
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.45	4.88	−4.57	0.00	−1.05	−3.36	−0.14
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.57	4.87	−4.70	0.00	−0.18	−4.15	−0.37
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	6.93	−4.82	0.00	−0.65	−3.42	−0.75
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.98	8.14	−4.84	+1.34	−0.76	−4.53	−0.88
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.52	6.65	−4.87	0.00	−0.62	−3.76	−0.49
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	8.23	3.35	−4.88	0.00	−0.47	−4.09	−0.32
Air Power	National Security	10.19	5.27	−4.92	0.00	−0.95	−3.57	−0.40
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	9.00	4.06	−4.94	0.00	−0.92	−3.79	−0.23
Space Operations	National Security	10.56	5.57	−4.99	0.00	−1.00	−3.55	−0.45
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.85	1.82	−5.03	0.00	−0.17	−4.69	−0.17
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	15.75	10.71	−5.04	0.00	−2.23	−2.52	−0.29
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	3.81	−5.15	0.00	−0.49	−4.30	−0.35
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.06	5.86	−5.20	0.00	−0.88	−4.05	−0.27
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.50	4.30	−5.20	0.00	−0.56	−4.27	−0.38
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.94	4.72	−5.22	0.00	−0.61	−4.25	−0.37
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.28	8.04	−5.24	0.00	−0.75	−3.35	−1.14
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	3.21	−5.40	0.00	−0.43	−4.32	−0.66
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	13.25	7.84	−5.41	+1.98	−1.44	−4.09	−1.86
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.02	3.55	−5.47	0.00	−0.51	−4.35	−0.60
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.54	6.00	−5.54	0.00	−0.58	−3.99	−0.98
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	11.09	5.51	−5.58	0.00	−1.01	−4.20	−0.36
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	8.31	2.71	−5.60	+1.62	−0.23	−6.34	−0.65
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	4.94	−5.67	0.00	−0.48	−4.03	−1.16
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.29	6.59	−5.70	+1.23	−0.67	−5.04	−1.22
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.81	5.81	−6.00	+1.25	−0.61	−5.95	−0.71
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.83	3.79	−6.04	0.00	−0.51	−5.08	−0.44
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.99	1.84	−6.15	0.00	−0.29	−5.67	−0.18
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.69	2.53	−6.16	0.00	−0.21	−5.76	−0.17
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	2.58	−6.17	0.00	−0.22	−5.82	−0.13
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	2.38	−6.19	0.00	−0.20	−5.84	−0.15
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.90	3.55	−6.35	0.00	−0.49	−5.11	−0.75
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	7.47	1.04	−6.43	0.00	−0.19	−5.59	−0.64
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	13.44	6.87	−6.57	0.00	−1.24	−5.00	−0.35
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	10.77	4.10	−6.67	0.00	−0.81	−5.22	−0.64
Maritime Power	National Security	7.36	0.65	−6.71	0.00	−0.26	−6.23	−0.21
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	1.93	−7.09	0.00	−0.29	−6.05	−0.76
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.59	0.15	−7.44	0.00	−0.08	−7.08	−0.28
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.89	1.75	−8.14	0.00	−0.32	−7.01	−0.82
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.86	0.52	−8.34	+1.27	−0.10	−8.47	−1.03
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.02	1.34	−8.68	0.00	−0.28	−8.05	−0.36

Seed 23 of experiment cycle-002.e4-ukr. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.