Simulation 2
South Africa, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 2: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.66 at the 1996 position, 11.67 in 2026; 123 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 2
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 17 (median simulation), 29 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 11.67 (+0.01)
- From 11.66
- Rank by index
- 32
- From 32
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 11.68 +0.021 | |
| 1998 |
| 11.72 +0.042 | |
| 1999 |
| 11.77 +0.054 | |
| 2000 |
| Market access opening | 11.87 +0.097 |
| 2001 |
| 11.95 +0.083 | |
| 2002 |
| 12.02 +0.070 | |
| 2003 |
| 12.04 +0.019 | |
| 2004 |
| 12.06 +0.023 | |
| 2005 |
| 12.10 +0.033 | |
| 2006 |
| 12.14 +0.040 | |
| 2007 |
| 12.19 +0.048 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizureHybrid coercion | 11.93 −0.255 |
| 2009 |
| 11.97 +0.041 | |
| 2010 |
| 12.01 +0.039 | |
| 2011 |
| 12.05 +0.041 | |
| 2012 |
| 12.08 +0.033 | |
| 2013 |
| 12.11 +0.026 | |
| 2014 |
| 12.14 +0.027 | |
| 2015 |
| Breadbasket failure | 12.06 −0.074 |
| 2016 |
| 12.08 +0.022 | |
| 2017 |
| 12.10 +0.018 | |
| 2018 |
| 12.12 +0.016 | |
| 2019 |
| 12.13 +0.017 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 11.79 −0.347 |
| 2021 |
| 11.79 +0.005 | |
| 2022 |
| Core disaster | 11.65 −0.137 |
| 2023 |
| 11.66 +0.003 | |
| 2024 |
| 11.66 +0.002 | |
| 2025 |
| 11.66 +0.003 | |
| 2026 |
| 11.67 +0.006 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.016 | −73.3 | −0.20 |
| No shocks | +1.020 | +71.6 | +2.80 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.008 | −0.7 | −0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.010 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.3 | −0.10 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.010 | −0.7 | −0.20 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.7 | −0.20 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.403 | +28.5 | +0.80 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.257 | +17.3 | +0.70 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.155 | +10.9 | +0.80 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.81 | 17.72 | +4.91 | +5.55 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.04 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.24 | 19.09 | +4.85 | +5.27 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.40 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.42 | 17.60 | +4.18 | +4.79 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.09 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.77 | 16.99 | +3.22 | +3.60 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.08 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.73 | 16.93 | +3.20 | +3.99 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.09 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.05 | 12.14 | +2.09 | +2.78 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.08 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.64 | 13.58 | +1.94 | +2.57 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.34 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 9.53 | 11.33 | +1.80 | +2.37 | 0.00 | −0.57 | 0.00 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 15.64 | 17.41 | +1.77 | +2.80 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.03 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.29 | 11.92 | +1.63 | +1.60 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.43 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 8.83 | 10.35 | +1.52 | +2.03 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.16 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 16.15 | 17.61 | +1.46 | +2.45 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.02 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.03 | 14.33 | +1.30 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.47 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.52 | 12.61 | +1.09 | +1.91 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.04 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.73 | 14.79 | +1.06 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.24 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.02 | 15.85 | +0.83 | +1.52 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.15 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 11.35 | 12.17 | +0.82 | +1.57 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.03 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.36 | 14.84 | +0.48 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.22 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 11.73 | 12.16 | +0.43 | +0.89 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.27 | 13.32 | +0.05 | +0.81 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.05 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 15.40 | 15.42 | +0.02 | +1.04 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.08 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 12.20 | 12.21 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.39 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.98 | 9.92 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.18 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.79 | 14.54 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.13 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 10.16 | 9.90 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.22 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 11.77 | 11.50 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | 0.00 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.82 | 12.50 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.06 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.80 | 11.39 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.10 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.77 | 10.36 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.02 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 13.38 | 12.97 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 13.58 | 13.17 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 11.28 | 10.85 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.08 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.65 | 16.21 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.20 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.33 | 10.86 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.10 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 12.25 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.18 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 11.28 | 10.74 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.04 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.23 | 10.68 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.29 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 7.34 | 6.78 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.05 |
| Air Power | National Security | 11.30 | 10.73 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.06 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.42 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.07 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.49 | 0.90 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | 0.00 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 8.18 | 7.56 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.02 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 7.49 | 6.87 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.07 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 6.37 | 5.75 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.07 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 11.30 | 10.68 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.06 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 13.06 | 12.44 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.26 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.39 | 6.76 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.06 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 3.62 | 2.98 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.24 | 4.60 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | 0.00 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.81 | 11.17 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.21 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 7.33 | 6.68 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.04 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.46 | 7.77 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.09 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.27 | 11.57 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.04 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.59 | 10.88 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.05 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 9.79 | 9.08 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.03 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.42 | 11.67 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 12.53 | 11.75 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.01 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.79 | 10.01 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.13 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.98 | 9.16 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | 0.00 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.60 | 9.74 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.04 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.78 | 9.90 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.04 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.70 | 10.82 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.04 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.55 | 10.64 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.15 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.35 | 10.42 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.08 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.61 | 13.66 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | −0.06 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.98 | 9.02 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.03 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 11.25 | 10.26 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.13 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.95 | 10.87 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.13 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.60 | 11.42 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.14 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.36 | 11.14 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 15.57 | 14.29 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.02 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.92 | 10.54 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.04 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 10.37 | 8.81 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.04 |
Seed 2 of experiment cycle-002.e4-zaf. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.